1. Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks

2. Shearlines vs. Fronts Shear Lines: are associated with wind shifts (direction and speed). –A line or narrow zone across which there is an abrupt change in the horizontal wind component parallel to this line A line of maximum horizontal wind shear. An area of directional wind confluence along the tail end of a surface front. Lacks the baroclinicity/density discontinuity of surface fronts Fronts: The interface or transition zone between two air masses of different density. –Density depends on temperature and moisture content –Fronts either lie along shear lines or can lag behind them.

3. Wind Confluence and Diffluence in the Caribbean

4. Wind Confluence and Diffluence in South America

5. Wind Divergence

6. Divergence of the Wind We can express the divergence equation in a simplified form, with two terms: Direction Speed The direction and speed terms, in-turn, can be expressed as directional/speed diffluence and confluence –Confluence is not equal to Convergence –Diffluence is not equal to Divergence

7. Divergence (Cont) Divergence/convergence calculations need to take into account the direction and speed terms. –This is done through objective analysis Streamline analysis is a subjective technique, and it only shows directional diffluence and confluence. –It does not show convergence/divergence

8. Example Directional Diffluence/Confluence Directional ConfluenceDirectional Diffluence

9. Speed Diffluence/Confluence Speed Diffluence Speed Confluence A B

10. Convergent or Divergent? A Directional Confluence Speed Diffluence

11. Convergent or Divergent?

12. A Directional Diffluence Speed Confluence

13. Convergent or Divergent?

14. Evaluation of Shear Lines

15. Front/Shear Line Evaluation

16. Front and Shear Line

20. Forecast Hints During the Winter Months –Convective activity over the Gulf of Mexico and gulf coast of Mexico tends to be capped below 500 hPa (20,000 ft) Evaluate upper dynamics for CONVERGENCE or DIVERGENCE before forecasting thunderstorms. –If models forecast post frontal northerlies of 25Kt or greater, and dew point temperature of 20C (68F) or greater over southern Mexico. Forecast 12 hrs rainfall accumulation of at least 2-4 inches.

21. Example of “Ideal” Conditions for Heavy Rainfall

22. Example Front/Shear Line Caribbean

23. Example Front/Shear Line South America

24. Identify Features

25. Satellite Interpretation

26. Analysis