1. Atmospheric Research Operationalising Coping Ranges climate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk Roger N. Jones AIACC Training Workshop on Adaptation and Vulnerability TWAS, Trieste June 3-14 2002

2. Atmospheric Research Choices Roundtable of project needs regards coping ranges, thresholds, climate risk and uncertainty management Choosing climate variables/sensitivity relationships (exercise) How to construct thresholds Structure of climate probabilities (variability and change, short exercise) Case studies –hot cows (heat stress and adaptation) –water resources (Monte Carlo uncertainty and Bayesian analysis –risk as a function of global warming

3. Atmospheric Research Sensitivity to what?

4. Atmospheric Research Linking climate to impacts Climate system Impacted activity Socio- economic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations

5. Atmospheric Research Cross impacts analysis Workshop Report (example) Worked example in MS Excel ®

6. Atmospheric Research Cross impacts analysis

7. Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion Global climate sensitivity Emission scenarios Regional changes Biophysical impacts Socio-economic impacts Climate variability

8. Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion Global climate sensitivity Emission scenarios Regional variability Biophysical impacts Socio-economic impacts

9. Atmospheric Research Likelihood Probability can be expressed in two ways: 1. Return period / frequency-based (Climate variability) 2. Single event (Mean climate change, one-off events)

10. Atmospheric Research Return period / frequency-based probability Recurrent or simple event Where a continuous variable reaches a critical level, or threshold. Eg. Extreme temperature (max & min), Extreme rainfall, heat stress, 1 in 100 year flood Discrete or complex event An event caused by a combination of variables (an extreme weather event) Eg. tropical cyclone/hurricane/typhoon, ENSO event

11. Atmospheric Research Frequency-based probability distributions

12. Atmospheric Research Single-event probability Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over

13. Atmospheric Research What is the probability of climate change? 1. Will climate change happen? IPCC (2001) suggests that climate change is occurring with a confidence of 66% to 90% 2. What form will it take? Uncertainties are due to: future rates of greenhouse gas emissions sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases regional variations in climate decadal-scale variability changes to short-term variability

14. Atmospheric Research Range of uncertainty

15. Atmospheric Research CO 2 emissions and concentrations

16. Atmospheric Research Simulated global warming: A2

17. Atmospheric Research Global warming

18. Atmospheric Research Group exercise - estimating joint probabilities Take a gold coin (preferably 1 pound coin) Heads represents low end (1.4°C), tails represents high end (5.8°C) Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails Which outcome is most likely?

19. Atmospheric Research Give coin to greedy presenter Risk exercise - conclusion

20. Atmospheric Research Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties Critical threshold Time Variable(s) Planning horizon

21. Atmospheric Research Placing thresholds within scenario uncertainty A B

22. Atmospheric Research Impact thresholds Threshold examples & workshop synthesis

23. Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity

24. Atmospheric Research System responses Resistance (e.g. seawall) Resilience (e.g. regrowth, rebuilding after storm or fire) Adaptation (adjustments made in response to stress) Transformation (old system stops, new one starts) Cessation (activity stops altogether)

25. Atmospheric Research Hot cows and heat stress THI between 72 and 78 mild stress THI between 89 and 98 severe stressDEAD COWS! THI above 98 moderate stress THI between 79 and 88

26. Atmospheric Research Frequency of exceeding heat index threshold Threshold examples & workshop synthesis

27. Atmospheric Research Production effects THI between 79 and 88 THI between 72 and 78 mild stress no stress moderate stress mild stress Powerpoint Report

28. Atmospheric Research Coral bleaching Caused by SST above a threshold Expels xosanthellae algae Severity related to days above bleaching threshold Corals may recover or die

29. Atmospheric Research Macquarie River Catchment Burrendong Dam Windamere Dam Major Areas of Abstraction Macquarie R Contributing Area Macquarie Marshes Area ~ 75,000 km 2 P = 1000 to <400 mm. Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply Most flow from upper catchment runoff Most demand in the lower catchment

30. Atmospheric Research Ranges of seasonal rainfall change for the MDB Summer Autumn Winter Spring 2030 2070

31. Atmospheric Research P and Ep changes for Macquarie catchment In change per degree global warming

32. Atmospheric Research Changes to MAF for 9 models in 2030 (%) Based on IPCC 2001 B1 at 1.7°C 0.55°C A1 at 2.5°C 0.91°C A1T at 4.2°C 1.27°C

33. Atmospheric Research Climate change – flow relationship  flow = a  ( atan (  Ep /  P ) – b Standard error < 2%

34. Atmospheric Research Sampling strategy The range of global warming in 2030 was 0.55– 1.27°C with a uniform distribution. The range of change in 2070 was 1.16–3.02°C. Changes in P were taken from the full range of change for each quarter from the sample of nine climate models. Changes in P for each quarter were assumed to be independent of each other The difference between samples in any consecutive quarter could not exceed the largest difference observed in the sample of nine climate models. Ep was partially dependent on P (dEp = 5.75 – 0.53dP, standard error = 2.00, randomly sampled using a Gaussian distribution)

35. Atmospheric Research Changes to Burrendong Dam storage 2030 <60 <70 <80 <90 <95 <100 <50 Cumulative Probability (%)

36. Atmospheric Research Changes to bulk allocations for irrigation 2030 <60 <70 <80 <90 <95 <100 <50 Cumulative Probability (%)

37. Atmospheric Research Changes to Macquarie Marsh inflows 2030 <60 <70 <80 <90 <95 <100 <50 Cumulative Probability (%)

38. Atmospheric Research Probabilities of flow changes - impacts view Range of possible outcomes

39. Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events

40. Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules

41. Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation)

42. Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding)

43. Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030 Report

44. Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2070

45. Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2030

46. Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2070

47. Atmospheric Research Characterising risk as a function of global warming The standard “7 step method” of impact assessment progresses from climate to impacts to adaptation. This infers that we must predict the likeliest climate before we can predict the likeliest impacts. Can we get around this limitation?

48. Atmospheric Research Characterising risk There is another way. Impacts = function(Global warming) Impacts = function(global, local CC & CV ) p(impacts) = no. of scenarios > threshold = risk

49. Atmospheric Research Risk exercise - estimating threshold exceedance: sea level rise Recover coin from greedy presenter Heads represents low end (9 cm), tails represents high end (88cm) The group chooses two critical thresholds Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails Which outcome is most likely?

50. Atmospheric Research Increasing likelihood of global warming Probability of threshold exceedance Characterising the risk of global warming

51. 25 cm 50 cm 75 cm

52. Atmospheric Research Characterising the risk of global warming Risks to Many Risks to Some I I Risks to unique and threatened systems II II Risks from extreme climate events Large Increase Increase III Distribution of impacts III Negative for most regions Negative for some regions IV Aggregate impacts IV Net Negative in all metrics Markets + and - Most people worse off V Risks from large-scale discontinuities V Very low Higher Probability of threshold exceedance

53. Atmospheric Research Long-term planning Short-term policy response 1. Enhance adaptive capacity so that the current coping range expands, reducing present vulnerability. 2. Develop this capacity in such a way that the longer-term risks to climate change are also reduced.

54. Atmospheric Research Basic principles Pay greater attention to recent climate experience. Link climate, impacts and outcomes to describe the coping range. Address adaptation to climate variability and extremes as part of reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change. Assess risk according to how far climate change, in conjunction with other drivers of change, may drive activities beyond their coping range. Focus on present and future vulnerability to ground future adaptation policy development in present-day experience. Consider current development policies and proposed future activities and investments, especially those that may increase vulnerability.

55. Atmospheric Research Foresighting your project Visualise how you will present the results (graph, text, table, animation) Rehearse how you will communicate the uncertainties Anticipate questions upon presentation or review How will you engage different stakeholders?