1. Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms Annimac www.annimac.com.au Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia Speaker Conference Keynote

2. “ Everything that has been standard practice for 5 standard practice for 5 generations on my family generations on my family farm is now wrong. ” farm is now wrong. ” Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38 Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38

3. Rate of Change 5 minutes - new technology 5 days - new product or service every day - 1 million new web pages Change we have in one day Our grandparents had in one year Younger means faster

5. Technology e.g. by 2020 70 % types of jobs then do not exist now because 80 % technology not yet imagined Driving all Drivers of Change

6. Likely jobs in next 10 years : Director of Emerging Thought Chief Zookeeper - of people Chief Farm Technologist Creative Undertaker Agricultural Biotech Adviser Pasture Programmer Valuer of Intangible Assets * Human Interface Manager * * 2003

7. now Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world pop n no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

9. Changing Nature of Work Changing Nature of Work Two major trends :  Co opitalism Cooperative capitalism Cooperative capitalism  Sustainability Development harmony Development harmony

10. Project based Team based Project based Team based Relationships Relationships One off alliances - consortia One off alliances - consortia Globally networked Globally networked Fast flat skilled decision making Fast flat skilled decision making Values driven Quad Bottom Line Values driven Quad Bottom Line Asia markets Asia markets Changing Nature of Work :

11. Emerging values for Business intergenerational equity leaving our planet to future generations in as good as or better state than it is today sustainable development human development ( financial economic and social ) in harmony with the natural environment eco-footprinting the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share' of global resources

12. Farmer’s paddock Williams Albany Hwy WA March 03

13. Changing Nature of Employment : Two major trends : Two major trends : Casualisation Casualisation Values driven Values driven

14. Contract based : Projects Contract based : Projects Part time Part time Skill based Multi skilling Skill based Multi skilling Employee benefits negotiated Employee benefits negotiated Values driven not money Values driven not money personal people planet personal people planet Global sourcing Global sourcing Changing Nature of Employment :

16. Aus Small Business Trends ABS 1996 - 2001 Number of small biz in Aus 1,505,924 Income increase over 5 yrs 18.6 % including wages 29.9 % profit up by 13.4 % Number in capital cities 945, 320 only Hobart decreasing Number outside capital cities 611,476 decreasing by 1 %

17. Small biz Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities : SW Queensland 42.4 % Kimberley WA 41.7 % Outer Adelaide 37.4 % Central W Queensland 31.2 % Decline in total income in 4 Regions : Midlands WA - 1.1 % South Eastern WA - 3.9 % Upper Great Southern WA - 8.8% Northern Sth Australia - 4.8 % Average income grew in all regions

18. ABS Estimates: Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small Businesses 1996 to 2001

19. Trends in farm income :

23. Future growth trends - small biz startup : Domestic services - “ Do it for me ” home cleaning, maintenance and gardening healthy prepared meals and home catering shopping and delivery services home security systems and patrol services household waste disposal and recycling car care pool cleaning pet care

25. Start-ups Community services travel & tourism special interest education – leisure & learning investment & retirement planning sports & recreation tailored accommodation facilities home & health care preventative health & alternative therapies mobility & companionship services

27. Start-ups Health & lifestyle alternative therapies stress management, relaxation & meditation personal counselling & self awareness parenting skills & techniques public speaking & social etiquette career & skills development image consulting personal security, self-defence & devices

29. Start-ups Business services computer consultancy services employment placement & staff contracting accounting & business advisory services serviced offices & secretarial support business planning & information services marketing & public relations

31. Start-ups Tourism & Recreation ecotourism & nature based tours heritage & nostalgia tours backpacker tourism farm-stays special events e.g. country show days concert & sporting events Major growth : On line e-business

33. Trends in Rural Australia Farming communities downsizing Farming communities downsizing Family farms corporatising Family farms corporatising Urban encroachment Urban encroachment Ageing farm population Ageing farm population Succession issues : youth issues Succession issues : youth issues Women as farm biz managers Women as farm biz managers Slow uptake of technology Slow uptake of technology Slow uptake new knowledge Slow uptake new knowledge

35. Trends of Climate Change Forecasters disagree long term Global warming impacting Some changes inevitable Aus second most arid continent Aus climate highly vulnerable

37. Trends of Climate Change : Aus Aus climate cyclical - shorter Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change : hi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahs hi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahs tropical forests deserts natural grasslands tropical forests deserts natural grasslands Global warming impacting Aus : increasing carbon dioxide increasing carbon dioxide changing temperatures : hi certainty changing temperatures : hi certainty changing rainfall : mod certainty changing rainfall : mod certainty

38. Likely impact of climate change 2030 CO 2 mostly good CO 2 to 455 ppm : mostly good plant growth & water efficiency plant growth & water efficiency Temperature warming : 2° to 4° C Temperature warming : 2° to 4° C Rainfall change : mostly not good  southwest : -20% to +5%  southeast, Qld : -10% to +5%  southeast, Qld : -10% to +5% inland : summer or autumn inland : summer or autumn

39. Some Specific Impacts Wheat : faster growth less grain filling faster growth less grain filling high yield lower grain protein high yield lower grain protein not bread making or pasta grain Fruit : esp apples stone fruits southern Aus not bread making or pasta grain Fruit : esp apples stone fruits southern Aus less frost damage less chilling less frost damage less chilling less bud burst lower fruit set less bud burst lower fruit set lower yield reduced quality lower yield reduced quality

40. Changing rainfall & temperature impact on wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001 wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001 Temperature increase °C Temperature increase °C Rainfall change % Rainfall change % Yield response % 20%0% - 20%

42. High rainfall Pastures : NSW Vic : CO 2 & warming cancel out NSW Vic : CO 2 & warming cancel out sthn Aus less winter spring rain sthn Aus less winter spring rain less plant production less plant production less animal production less animal production higher temp : dairy cows less milk higher temp : dairy cows less milk Rangelands : delicate diversity threatened sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain less forage less animal production less forage less animal production nthn Aus more summer rain CO 2 nthn Aus more summer rain CO 2 more forage poorer quality nthn sub / tropics move south nthn sub / tropics move south natural vegetation unable to adapt natural vegetation unable to adapt

43. Growth in forests : Growth in forests : if CO 2 doubles with 3°C temp increase if CO 2 doubles with 3°C temp increase > 50% > 50% 25 to 50% 0 to 25% 0 to 25% -25 to -50% -50 to -25% < -50% No growth

44. Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Shifting Global Values

45. now Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world pop n no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

46. Australian Population Pyramid Aus Govt 2001

47. Gap : Age Generations Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism economic rationalists : profit material values : tangibles science as religion : rational Generation X 30 – 45 yrs clones of Boomers : materialists or copy younger : sustainability

48. Four generations : Three worlds DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability global identity co opitalism relationships holistic win - win – win Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com Gap : Age Generations

49. Chinese Technology Centre

50. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual. no limits. no boundaries. parallel universes . quantum everything. invent their world. beyond our imagining. Indigo children

52. Gap : Globally Networked Those globally networked : access all knowledge empowered confident passionately committed global view future one planet : one future

53. Summary Impact for WFI Summary Impact for WFI transiting two worlds - accelerating values shift to sustainability QBL cooperation not competition climate change impacting agribiz rural Aus rapid demographic shifts young non negotiators relationships : consumers partners innovators

54. Two greatest challenges facing WFI Changing nature of agribiz facilitating client change risk management during change Changing nature of clients understanding immense differences responding to - not imposing upon

56. Thank you www.annimac.com.au Thank you www.annimac.com.au www.annimac.com.au