1. Context of Congressional Elections Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot Must win 2 elections

2. Same Place, Same Voters Three Maps, Three Outcomes Basic Rules – each square same population. – All squares in the same district must touch – R squares have a majority of Republican voters – D squares have a majority of Democratic voters. Each set of squares with the same color represent a single election district

3. Map 1 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? five desirable less safe, more competitive districts, where the winner of the election may be either a Republican or a Democrat

4. Map 2 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? three Republican and two Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties. Note the very safe pink D district

5. Map 3 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? two Republican and three Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties:

6. Florida Florida's 22nd District – 90 miles long – Less than 3 miles wide. – every beach house lining Route A1A along Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to Miami Beach – 52% Dem in 2000, 55% R in 2002

7. Majority Minority Districts

8. Social & Political Contexts Amazing Variation – geographic size – Population – Economic base – Ethnicity – Age – Partisanship

9. Incumbency Reelection Rates 1832-1996

10. Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected – 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected 77% of Senate incumbents are reelected #1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent? Defining feature of Congress

11. Sources of Incumbent advantage Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected. Amazing array of resources – Free mail, trips to district, staff – Free facilities for TV and radio ads – Casework

12. # of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

15. Puzzle

16. Is it the Money? Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote incumbent House winner spends $700,00 incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

17. Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with Congressional Candidates, 1980-1994 Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 1996

18. Voters’ Contact with Incumbents

19. Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

21. Challengers 1990, 1994

23. Things Liked about Incumbents

24. Things Disliked about Incumbents

25. Things Liked about Challengers

26. Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers

27. Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60% of all PAC $, 1994

28. The Incumbent’s Strategy Discourage serious electoral competition – Herb Kohl Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

29. Who is a marginal incumbent Less than 60% of vote in previous election Scandal in last term Republican in a democratic leaning district First term representative

30. Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994 Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate <40%, $105,000 40-45%, $322,000 45-49.9%, $433,000 Open seat $580,000

32. House of Representatives 61 “competitive” races in 2000 – 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost – 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost – GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats – Dems with 4 of 10 open seats 17 changes of 435

34. Senate in 2000 12 toss up races out of 33 – GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win – Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win – GOP 0 of 1 on open seats – Dems 3 of 4 on open seats 7 changes

36. Expectations Game Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

37. Strategic Politician Hypothesis Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats 2 nd tier candidates, some money go Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

38. Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty What issues are important Low turnout Random terror and running scared – Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

39. Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40% Better liked (more familiar) Better funded

40. Why do challengers win? Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media Are well funded Implications???

41. Reforming the System Term limits – Federal level – State level Increase competitiveness of elections – Campaign finance reform Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

42. Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Table 5.15 – Personal – Performance/experience – District service – Ideology/Policy

43. Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates – Where do voters learn about challengers Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers – What is #1?

44. The Two Congresses Representative/elective institution – reelection is never far from members’ minds. Lawmaking institution – First branch of government – Unique among representative institutions

45. Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members Edmund Burke should representative – act like a delegate and follow the wishes of those who have elected him or her? – Or as a Trustee who decides according to his or her own best judgment?

46. Changing Representational Roles Lawmakers District service Constituent assistance

47. 3 types of behavior Advertising – Nobody’s senator but yours Credit claiming – Has to be credible – Pork barreling; casework Position taking – Inherently costly

48. reelection tips for legislators keep your perspective speak the right language first impressions are important