1. Managing the Temporal Geography of Futures Michael Flaxman, MIT

2. Motivation

3. Overview Alternative Futures Methodology Current Scenario & Impact Model Data Management Four Problems Two (Partial) Solutions

4. Problem 1: Too Many Futures!

6. Problem 2: Logical Dependencies Are Important Correct Interpretation often depends on understanding underlying assumptions Large Update Problems – Scenarios dependencies propagate – If dependencies are not tracked, danger of false attribution

7. Problem 2: Logical Dependencies Example – Scenario 1 (S1) Impact of S1 on Hydrology Impact of Hydrology under S1 on Species Habitat – Scenario 2 (S2) Impact of S2 on Hydrology Impact of Hydrology under S2 on Species Habitat If Scenarios Change… – Dependencies propagate i.e.above must recompute hydrology twice & habitat twice – If dependencies are not tracked, danger of false attribution i.e. Species Habitat map not correctly updated to S1v17

8. Problem 3: Sharing Creating a single isolated system to manage spatiotemporal data is hard Creating a networked system is much harder still! – Must track dependencies *between* systems – Must deal with broken connections, latencies, and time changes

9. Problem 3: Sharing Example Parties Involved – Hydrologist at USGS (Ft. Lauderdale) – Land Use Modeler at UFL (Gainsville) – Habitat Specialists at FWS (Vero Beach & 2 Refuges) – Vegetation Specialist at Everglades National Park Action – Land Use Modeler receives updated demographic estimate, updates land cover model One scenario change requires sequential notification to 5 distributed parties + manager

10. Problem 4: Metaphors & Mechanisms Are Weak Available object “metaphors” and mechanisms – Files (on disk) Bundled by space, discrete for each time ‘slice’ NetCDF – multidimensional file format – Supported by climate models, some GIS – Not well supported outside of science – Layers (in GIS) User re-orderable with occlusion (for better and worse) Independent visibility toggle – Hierarchical Folders (both) Allows development of hierarchical file or layer representations of time Other Metaphors & Concepts – Time Line” Understandable interface, but not sharable implementation – Dependency Diagram Again, well understood, but each implementation separate

11. MIT Prototypes ScenarioCMS – A content management system for spatial scenarios organized as “time slices” – Provides “ScenarioXML” language to document assumptions and dependencies – Status: working prototype (Telluride), Phase 2 (BajaEcoInfo) EverView2 – Extension of ScenarioCMS for the Everglades – Visualizes & manages assumptions, choices and dependencies – Organizes “stories” within Scenarios Stories are complex sub-scenarios with temporal sequencing – Status: early schematic

13. ScenarioCMS: Scenarios & Constraints

14. ScenarioXML Vendor-neutral, software-neutral Organizes scenarios logically – Like HTML, separates presentation from data – Metadata for scenario (machine & human readable)

15. ScenarioCMS: Simple Time Slider

16. ScenarioCMS: Dynamic Legend

17. Florida Everglades Dis-integrated Management Systems Water Manager’s View: Pipes Only Refuge Manager’s View: Habitat & Species Observation Only

19. Scenario 1 Conditions: Wet Season Hurricane IV approaching Loxahatchee NWR and Miami-Dade at High Flood-Risk Management Options: A. Miami-Dade Impact: Flood-risk reduced Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Flood-risk reduced Caloosahatchee Estuary and St. Lucie Estuary Impacts: Water quality decreases Low O 2 levels Fish Kill Inundate Sea Grass Urban Flood-Risk Levels L M H Conservation Areas Flood- Risk Levels L M H Lake Okechobee Water Level 14.5’ 16.5’ 17.5’ release Lock timeline Flood-risk high Release to C-44 and C-43 Water reaches first locks, Port Mayaca, Moore Haven Water reaches St. Lucie Lock Water reaches Franklin Lock Urban flood-risk reduced; Estuarine Impacts A. Release water to C-43 and C-44 St. Lucie Canal; Caloosahatchee Canal B. Release water to L-8 and L-10 STA 1-W and 1-E; WCA 1 (Lox. NWR) Decision Impacts: Preview

20. Scenario 1 Conditions: Wet Season Hurricane IV approaching Loxahatchee NWR and Miami-Dade at High Flood-Risk Management Options: Urban Flood-Risk Levels L M H Conservation Areas Flood- Risk Levels L M H Lake Okechobee Water Level 14.5’ 16.5’ 17.5’ release Lock Release to L-8, L-10 A. Release water to C-43 and C-44 St. Lucie Canal; Caloosahatchee Canal B. Release water to L-8 and L-10 STA 1-W and 1-E; WCA 1 (Lox. NWR) Decision Impacts: Preview B. Miami-Dade Impact: Flood-risk reduced Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Apple snail population and waterfowl nesting inundated High Flood- Risk Water reaches STA 1-W and 1- E Water released to WCA 1, (Lox) Water reaches WCA 2, WCA 3 Water reaches Everglades Apple Snail pop. disturbed

21. Scenario 2 Conditions: Drought Season SFWMD Phase IV Drought “Critical” Loxahatchee NWR and Everglades National Park need water SFWMD Drought Protocol: Water Restrictions Stages I II III IV Flow Rate None Minimum Adequate Severe Drought timeline Release water to L-8, L-10 Water reaches STA 1-W and 1- E Water released to WCA 1, (Lox) Water reaches WCA 2, WCA 3 Water reaches Everglades Management Options: A. Miami-Dade Impact: Water restrictions remain Phase IV Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Minimum flows received, still dry A. Release min. flows to L-8, L-10, STA 1- W and 1-E, WCA 1 Loxahatchee NWR; Everglades B. Release water to L-15 and L-18 Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach Decision Impacts: Preview

22. Scenario 2 Conditions: Drought Season SFWMD Phase IV Drought “Critical” Loxahatchee NWR and Everglades National Park need water SFWMD Drought Protocol: Water Restrictions Stages I II III IV Flow Rate None Minimum Adequate Drought severe Release water to L-15, L-18 Water reaches Miami- Dade County line Water restrictions reduced Phase III Management Options: A. Release min. flows to L-8, L-10, STA 1- W and 1-E, WCA 1 Loxahatchee NWR; Everglades B. Release water to L-15 and L-18 Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach Decision Impacts: Preview B. Miami-Dade Impact: Water restrictions reduced to Phase III Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Apple snail population fails Mandatory minimum flows not met Min. flows to Everglades not met

23. Conclusions Spatiotemporal Scenario Management Needed – Typical scenario study generates 100+ layers – Logical dependencies important to preserve Sharing is Nice – Single-application solutions inadequate – Many raw data ‘standards’ to pick from – Higher-level aggregations desirable

24. Future Work Telluride Prototype – Go live this summer – Kept simple Time slices only Interface exposes dependencies as hierarchies Back-end ScenarioXML drives interface Everview2 – To be developed next academic year