1. Long term care and labor market prospects The new law of care services A paradigm change in the Spanish welfare regime? Familiarisation vs. Professionalisation Karsten Krüger ICPP - Innovación y Consultoria en Políticas Públicas 1

2. Long term care and labor market prospects The Spanish welfare regime Objectives of the study  analysis of pathways of evolution of the Spanish welfare regime  evaluation of the LAPAD based on selected external indicators  factors of decisions 2

3. Long term care and labor market prospects Characteristics of the old regime family solidarity based on the traditional role of the house-wife & mother Changes in the traditional regime: Phase 1:Substitution of the house wife and mother by other female familiars Phase 2: Increasing contraction of informal female workers (immigrants) Causes changes in the family structure Increasing female Labour market participation rate [see Moreno CSIC] The Spanish welfare regime Changes 3

4. Long term care and labor market prospects Types of familiarisation  Familiarism by defect  Supported familiarism (Economisation)  Optional Familiarism  De-familiarización (Professionalisation) (see European project: multilink) The Spanish welfare regime Future Pathways of Change 4

5. Long term care and labor market prospects Towards a new Welfare regime in Spain? The new law advocates for the professionalisation of care services (and social services) Previewed Effect on the Care service sector Growth of the care service sector Increasing formal care labour market Higher care service quality through professionalisation Social Effect more quality of family care more opportunities for women in the labour market The Spanish welfare regime Future Pathways of Change 5

6. Long term care and labor market prospects Types of services Total of 637,739 singular care services recognized (April 2010) Care services: - Prevention services and Promotion of Personal Autonomy00,63% - Teleassistance10,02% - Domestic support11,03% - Day and Night centres05,17% - Assistance in residences17,10% 43,95% Economic support - related to services06,91% - for familiar care services49,02% -for personal assistance (only at high level of care needs)00,11% 56,04% The New Law of Care services Implementation 6

7. Long term care and labor market prospects Care service needs: Previous studiesRecognized 2010 High level of dependency223.457468.764 Medium level of dependency420.336328.222 Low level of dependency602.636227.172 Labour Market Previous studiesNew Work Places New work places previewed262.735 Residences 58.591 Social services without residence 48.995 TOTAL107.586 Economic Support Recognized Family Care312.624 Formal Familiar Care workers 119.524 Informal Familiar Care workers 193.100 The New Law of Care services Implementation 7

8. Long term care and labor market prospects Impact on the Welfare Regime LM Segments – Driving Forces Care Services Dimensión FamilyInformalFormal Quality Costs Benefits Complementarity 8

9. Long term care and labor market prospects Decision Factors Point of departure: The decision is made by the families based on cost-benefit estimations (see Bourdieus Capital theory: Economic, Cultural, Social Capital) Decision Factors - Family income - opportunity costs for a family care worker (lost of income, lost of life quality, transport costs etc.) - costs for informal care worker - costs for professional care services - Economic support for family care services - Costs for the professional care services covered by public funding - Considerations of quality standards - etc. Hypothesis: These factors can be also applied at the system level to take decision in favour of economic support or the development of service infrastructure. Impact on the Welfare Regime Optional Familiarisation 9

10. Long term care and labor market prospects Internal Evaluation The data of the SAAD indicates a trend towards a asynchronisation of the Spanish welfare system. The Autonomous Regions which shows in April 2010 in general a better performance then the others tends to have also higher growth rates in the majority of the indicators (Andalucia, Cantabria, Castilla La Mancha, Cataluña, Murcia, La Rioja) The Autonomous Regions which shows in April 2010 in general a worthier performance then the others tends to have also lower growth rates in the majority of the indicators (Asturias, Canarias, Castilla-Leon, Valencia, Galicia, Madrid and Navarra). Impact on the Welfare Regime Asynchronisation of the Regime 10

11. Long term care and labor market prospects Looking for explanations External indicators: ageing rate urbanisation rate degree of women between 45 and 65 socio-sanitarian employment rate rate of socio-sanitarian enterprises income of population ≥ 65 Calculated in relation to the population ≥ 65 Impact on the Welfare Regime Asynchronisation of the Regime 11

12. Long term care and labor market prospects The available statistical data doesn’t show correlations to the configuration of the new care service system in the different autonomous regions. It seems more a political issue. Canarias, Madrid and Valencia, three of the regions with a less implemented system of care services, are governed by the Popular Party. However there are also socialist governed regions with a less developed system as Asturias. Impact on the Welfare Regime Asynchronisation of the Regime 12

13. Long term care and labor market prospects The Autonomous Regions, in which the population ≥ 65 has a higher income, tends to have: - a higher service rate within the public system - a higher coverage rate of socio-sanitarian employment - a higher coverage rate of enterprises acting in care services These Autonomous Regions, which dispose of a service infrastructures, has more facilities to development the public system of care services previewed in the new law. Impact on the Welfare Regime Asynchronisation of the Regime

14. Long term care and labor market prospects towards an asynchronised Spanish welfare regime [Familiarism by defect, supported familiarism and opcional familiarsm] two general options of change supported vs. optional familiarisation Optional Familiarisation only seems to be a real option in the regions, which still dispose of a private-public service infrastructure formally a good law to promote the professionalisation but too far away from socio-economic reality Conclusions: Welfare Regime 14

15. Long term care and labor market prospects Supported familiarization Optional familiarization: EconomizationHigher Professionalisation (economic incentives for family work)(option for alternative female work) Preconditionsufficient financial resources basic infrastructure & human resources Effects on care sector low growth of formal caremoderate growth of formal care mainly family and informal care low professionalisation degreeincreasing professionalisation low qualification of care serverincreasing qualification degree (state regulation) low salariesincreasing salaries (collective bargaining) instable work conditionsmore stable work conditions low costs systemmoderate cost system low service qualitymoderate to high service quality Conclusions Two Pathways 15

16. Long term care and labor market prospects Thank you for your attention 16

17. Long term care and labor market prospects Effects of policies towards optional familiarization In time of crisis Low growth ofGrowth of family care formal LMand informal LM In time of economic welfare Growth of Reorientation of family care formal LMlow growth of informal LM Conclusions: Welfare Regime 17

18. Long term care and labor market prospects Rate of benefits (nº of benefits in % of population > 65) June 08April 10growth Madrid0,01270,05670,0440 Canarias0,01450,06270,0482 Asturias0,02040,06690,0465 Com. Valenciana0,00860,07100,0624 Galicia0,02530,07900,0537 Castilla y León0,02260,08100,0585 Balears0,00870,08590,0772 Extremadura0,02550,09370,0682 Navarra0,05060,09370,0431 TOTAL0,03080,10240,0716 País Vasco0,03160,10260,0710 Ceuta y Melilla0,05250,10340,0509 Aragón0,04660,10520,0586 Cataluña0,02940,11520,0858 Castilla La Mancha0,03680,11640,0796 Cantabria0,03900,12870,0896 Murcia0,03080,13220,1014 Rioja0,05420,13900,0848 Andalucía0,06700,17340,1064 Impact on the Welfare Regime Asynchronisation of the Regime 18