1. Corine land cover, Land accounts and scenario development An introduction Jean-Louis Weber & Ferràn Paramo 26 February 2003

2. Why accounting for Land? Produce synthetic assessments, keeping track of the geographic differences Analyse the relation between the changes of land cover and land use, in physical and monetary terms and contribute to the development of scenarios…

3. First, avoiding this… Net intensification of land use by Sea Catchments Net intensification of land use by Country Net intensification of land use by Biogeographic regionsNet intensification of land use by Watershed

4. and this… Changes in Tourism intensity, 1980-85 to 1990-95, by NUTS2

5. The concept of stock & flow accounts Gains Losses

6. The aggregation issue From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover

7. From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types

8. CLC 1990

9. Landscape Types of Europe used for LEAC wwwwwwwwwwww wwwwwwwwwwww wwwwwwwwwwww wwwwwwwwwwww

10. Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, dominant character

11. Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, Upland vs Lowland

12. Dominant landscape type of the European coast

13. Land Accounting Units/ Coastal Units

16. From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover

17. Nomenclature of Land Cover Flows (Level 1) LCF1Urban land management LCF2Urban sprawl LCF3Extension of economic sites and infrastructures LCF4Agricultural rotation and intensification LCF5Conversion of land to agriculture LCF6Forests creation and management LCF7Water body creation and management LCF8Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes

18. Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 1/3 LCF1 Urban land management LCF11Urban development/ infilling LCF12Developed land recycling LCF13Development of green urban areas LCF2Urban sprawl LCF21Urban continuous sprawl LCF22Urban diffuse sprawl LCF3Extension of economic sites and infrastructures LCF31Extension of industrial & commercial sites LCF32Extension of transport networks LCF33Extension of harbours LCF34Extension of airports LCF35Extension of mines and quarrying areas LCF36Extension of dumpsites LCF37Construction LCF38Extension of sport and leisure facilities

19. Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 2/3 LCF4 Agricultural rotation and intensification LCF41Recent extension of pasture, fallow land, set aside LCF42Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture LCF43Rotation of annual crops LCF44Rotation of permanent crops LCF45Intensification of agriculture LCF5 Conversion of land to agriculture LCF51Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture LCF52Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture LCF53Diffuse conversion of forest to agriculture LCF54Diffuse conversion of marginal land to agriculture LCF55Conversion of wetlands to agriculture LCF56Conversion of developed areas to agriculture

20. Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 3/3 LCF6Forests creation and management LCF61Forests creation LCF62Forests rotation LCF63Recent felling and transition LCF7Water body creation and management LCF71Water body creation LCF72Water body management LCF8Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes LCF81Semi-natural creation LCF82Semi-natural rotation LCF83 Farmland abandonment without significant woodland creation LCF84Farmland abandonment with woodland creation LCF85Other land abandonment (other than farmland) LCF86Forests and shrubs fires LCF87Coastal erosion LCF88Impacts of storms, floods… LCF89Other changes and unknown

21. Example of basic LEAC

22. Land cover of the European coast, 1990

23. Urban extension compared to Farmland (Net Change), European coast, 1975-1990, hectares

24. Main land cover flows on European coast, 1975-1990 - hectares

25. Urban extension 1975-1990 on the European coast, hectares

26. Extension & intensification of agriculture on the European coast, 1975-90, hectares

27. Trends in marginal land on European coast, 1975-1990, hectares

28. Examples of indicators calculated from Land Accounts, maps (a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures (b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture (c) Farmland abandonment (d) Net Intensification of Land Use = (a)+(b)- (c) N.B. Indicators can be computed by Land Units, by Regions (NUTS, Basins) or/and by Landscape Types

29. (a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

30. (b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

31. (c) Farmland abandonment, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

32. + - = (d) Net Intensification of Land Use, European coast, 1975-90, NUTS3

33. Possible scenario analysis based on CLC and LEAC 1.Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenario: CAP, TEN/TINA, Urban Polycentric development (ESPON/CRPM) … and calculate impact (e.g. with a buffer) 2.Overlay of CORILIS with the same and calculate impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer 3.Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions between classes (impacts by landscape types) 4.Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment) 5.Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock & Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.

34. e.g. Assessment of the strategic impact of the TEN by the EEA Fragmentation of regions which boundaries are existing major transport networks. Value based on the size weighted by land cover (CLC 3, 4 & 5) and by the presence of protected areas Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenarios

35. Scenarios to be overlaid to CLC or CORILIS

36. Methodology of assessment of the competitiveness/attractiveness of the peripheral regions

37. Current assessment

38. Scenario 1: « straight-line development »

39. Scenario 2: polycentric development Questions : What about the environment? Is one scenario better than the other? Why? Which impacts?

40. Overlay of CORILIS with the same scenarios as before, and calculate impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer, direct calculations…

41. Intensity of land cover in and in the surroundings of Regional Parks

42. CORILIS

47. Landscape diversity indices based on CLC/CORILIS

48. Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions between classes (impacts by landscape types)

49. Normalised index Mixed Agriculture/ Forests

50. Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment)

51. Assessment of the risk of Farmland abandonment in Franche-Comté The risk is high when: CLC class is 243 & 244 + Land close to a forest + Land is on a slope + Land far from a main road

52. Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock & Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.