1. The Effect of Health Reform on Retirement Presenter: Helen Levy, PhD Coauthors: Tom Buchmueller, PhD Sayeh Nikpay, PhD University of Michigan August 2015

2. Executive summary Many studies suggest health insurance affects retirement. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) makes new affordable health insurance options available for early retirees, including – in some states – Medicaid expansion. How has this affected retirement prior to age 65? We find no evidence that it has had any effect on retirement.

3. The Affordable Care Act January 1, 2014 start date for new coverage Private health insurance expansion – Exchanges/marketplaces (every state), individual mandate, insurance market regulations, premium tax credits (100 – 400% of poverty) Medicaid expansion – Medicaid for individuals up to 138% of poverty – Not available in all states (Supreme Court decision)

5. ACA & retirement In 2015, 12 million covered through exchanges and another 12 million new Medicaid enrollees (US Department of Health and Human Services) These changes have reduced the fraction of adults ages 18-64 who are uninsured from 20% (2013) to 15% (2015) (Sommers et al., JAMA July 2015). Has the availability of these new health insurance options led some older workers to work less, either by retiring or by switching to part-time work?

6. Our analysis We analyze trends in retirement and part-time work among older workers both nationally and in states that expanded Medicaid, compared to those that did not. Data: Current Population Survey, basic monthly data through June 2015

8. We do not see any increase in retirement in January 2014, overall or in states that expanded Medicaid.

9. Nor do we see any increase in part-time work among older workers.

10. Conclusions/next steps To recap: we do not find any increase in retirement or part-time work among workers ages 55 through 64 following the implementation of the ACA coverage provisions in January 2014. Maybe it’s too soon? King v. Burwell ruling, June 2015 We plan to look at transitions into retirement using Health and Retirement Study data. – These data also include health insurance information, including availability of retiree coverage.

12. Backup slides start here

13. Source: Sommers et al, “Changes in Self-reported Insurance Coverage, Access to Care, and Health Under the Affordable Care Act,” JAMA, July 28, 2015. How have other outcomes changed?