1. CRed carbon reduction 1 Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Renewable Energy A Route to A Low Carbon Future 20 th March 2007 Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv CRed

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3. 3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity

4. 4 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

5. 5 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

6. 6 1979 2003 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years

7. 7 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.

8. 8 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. 9 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

10. 10 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

11. 11 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

12. 12 Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

13. 13 Top floor is an exhibition area – also to promote PV Windows are semi transparent Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6/7 kW in 3 arrays ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor

14. 14 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

15. 15 Use of PV generated energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak output is 34 kW

16. 16 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely. If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016

17. 17 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? – Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

18. 18 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

19. 19 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO 2 Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

20. 20 Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro Wind Micro CHP Heat Pumps

21. 21 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

22. 22 Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh Kings Lynn and 5908 kWh Great 5144 kWh West Norfolk Yarmouth A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average. (or 22% of total demand) Saves ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternatives: Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year. Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.

23. 23 Renewable Electricity Generation in GB Renewable Generation represented 4.2% of final demand in 2005

24. 24 Renewable Electricity Generation in GB by Region

25. 25 Renewable Electricity Generation by type and County in EEDA Region The output from Scroby Sands is sufficient to provide 95% of domestic demands of Norwich and Ipswich combined or 30% of demand on average

26. 26 % Renewables Rank of all districts ex 284 Notes Breckland41.45%11th36.6% from Thetford Great Yarmouth38.05%12th36.1% from Scroby Mid Suffolk19.12%27th15.9% from Eye GB Average4.20% Broadland4.09%93rd Ipswich2.91%116th Norwich2.59%129th Waveney2.22%143rd King's Lynn and West Norfolk1.45%170th South Norfolk1.31%175th St Edmundsbury1.05%185th Forest Heath0.99%189th North Norfolk0.68%205th Babergh0.00%284th = Suffolk Coastal0.00%284th = Proportion of Electricity Consumption provided by Renewables: Norfolk and Suffolk Districts

27. 27 Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individuals response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Awareness Raising is important Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative use of renewable energy, adaptive management systems and addressing functional energy uses are also important. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

28. 28 WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

29. 29 Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington