1. by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at TRF, NYC Bar AV Meeting NYC April 28, 2015 Autonomous Vehicles Technological Landscape

2. The Initial Project: Team: Princeton University (with Roscoe, Soterea, American Public Transit Association (APTA), NJ Transit, NY MTA, Munich Re and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA) Focused on Research, Development, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDriving Technology for Buses We are currently seeking funds to advance this project

3. Background on SmartDrivingCars Effort to Establish “Center for Research, Development,Certification & Commercialization of Automated Road Vehicles @ Fort Monmouth” Outline (what I’m involved with )

4. Why New Jersey? Observation: – Other States are have begun to jump on this… California & Google’s Self-Driving Car Initiative – Turned to focus investment on intelligence automation of the individual vehicle » letting the infrastructure to be optimized for the conventional driver.. Brilliant!! Enables “Start small; grow fast” Florida: Automated car takes test drive on Selmon Expressway Automated car takes test drive on Selmon Expressway Michigan: University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann Arbor University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann Arbor Texas TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test Bed TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test Bed California NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research CenterAmes Action Item: – Get New Jersey and the NJ/NY/PA Region involved by Leveraging the Ft. Monmouth Facility. Create the Job, Improve mobility safety and the environment. Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology and eventually driverless vehicles.

5. NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research CenterNASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center AmesAmes NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research CenterNASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center AmesAmes http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/pdf/255793main_June.08.Agram.smallfile.pdf

6. Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA's most extensive testing ground Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA's most extensive testing ground http://www.cnbc.com/id/102049263

7. Why Fort Monmouth? Observation: – Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for those with a Vested Interest in SmartDrivingTechnology to advance their intentions. Action Item: – Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use by Those with a Vested Interest to collaboratively transition their products from Research to Full Commercialization

8. Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres

9. Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings

10. Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

11. Board of Governance The “Venue” The McAfee Center and The Fort’s Roadways Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) at Fort Monmouth www.njcarts.org

12. Modal Dimension Sector Dimension CommercializationCertificationResearch Transit Cars Trucks Center’s Activity Matrix

13. Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com Discussion!

14. Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society Insurance : (Half of Economic Costs) ~$140B Automation could cut that in half ~ $70B/year

15. The details: In the following slides

16. Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society

17. Relative Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society AFTER TODAY

18. What am I trying to do? Action Item: – Leverage NJ’s assets @ Fort Monmouth Home of major Insurance, auto manufacturers, technology, communications and education – Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment : To Develop SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that: SDT Price SDT < NetPresentValue { Expected {AccidentLiability w/o SDT } - Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT } } This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Insurers NJ’s Insurance Companies thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

19. Present Value { Expected ( Loss Liability with the Technology – Loss Liability w/o the Technology )} > Cost {Automated Collision Avoidance Technology}

20. What abut Buses? Outline

23. Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry For the 10 year period 2004-2013, more than $4.8 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket” Large reserves for claims must be budgeted Claims experience is reflected in insurance premiums There are gaps in data reporting

24. In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses

25. Federal Transit Administration National Transit Database for 2013 Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 121 Fatalities 15,700 Injuries Casualty & Liability expenses paid = $499,872,628 Average of $6,187 per bus

26. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part A Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation

30. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part A Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation They need help and ACA systems are available to help! Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment of ACAS on all buses!

31. Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

32. 2013 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTD Casualty and Liability Amount Vehicle- related 119 Fatalities 15,351 Injuries $499,872,628. Total Buses Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 80,795 Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus $6,187/Bus/Year Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

33. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B The Trend is NOT Good!

34. In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

35. Fundamental Business Model We are at a point where: Fundamental Business Model We are at a point where: Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology < Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus} Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

36. Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

37. Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B

38. Plus: Lives Saved, Injuries Avoided, Disruptions Averted, and Arrests not Made All for Free!!! Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Part B