1. 1 Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead Oakham School 9 th September 2008 N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 CRed Carbon Reduction

2. 2 What causes Climate Change? Is it man made or natural? Are there other issues we also need to consider? Energy Security Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead

3. 33 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

5. 5 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

6. 6 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 6

7. 7 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 7

8. 8 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 8

9. 9 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 9

10. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 5 In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person 1 Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. 9 CO 2 Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little. Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like?

11. 11 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem?

12. 12

13. r 13 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands, one of UKs first off shore wind farms has had major technical problems but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

22. 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

23. 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 MWh per annum from 1 barrier Sufficient for twice the houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

24. 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

25. 25 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

26. 26 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

27. 27 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

28. Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) 28 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

29. 29 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

30. 30 Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle

31. 31 Distance (km) Average Passenger Nos carbon factor gms/pass-km Norwich - Peterborough05:52132.258.4 (Max:67 Min 50)31.9 Peterborough - Edinburgh07:46509.7297.9 (Max: 391, MIN:219)26.3 Edinburgh - Aberdeen12:06183.8116.3 Max 173; Min 64)31.2 Carbon Emissions from Train Travel Norwich -Peterborough Edinburgh - Aberdeen Peterborough - Edinburgh Analysing Results on Journey Energy Field Course 2007 Travelling en route to Orkney To be more environmentally friendly it would need 6 people in a small family car or 8 - 9 in a People Carrier

32. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting 2. Technical Solutions

33. Conclusions Global Warming and Energy Security issues will affect us all - in next few decades. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individuals response to use of energy as any technical measures Governments may take. Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative use of renewable energy are also important.

34. 34 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.

35. 35 Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community