1. 1 Christian Faith in a World of Climate Change: Energy Security and the need for Renewable Energy Castle Street Methodist Church 25 th October 2008 Keith Tovey: Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 CRed Carbon Reduction Keith Tovey ( ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

2. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change Background: the evidence of Climate Change 2

3. 3 3 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

5. 5 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years

6. 6 Last Ice Age Humans are forcing the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earths orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 6 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

7. 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 7

8. 8 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 8

9. 9 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 9

10. 10 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

11. 11 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 11

12. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 12

13. Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 13

14. 14 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap

15. 15 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? France China 15

16. 16 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 16

17. r 17 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

22. 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

23. 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

24. 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

25. 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

26. 26 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

27. 27 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

28. 28 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

29. 29 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

30. 30 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

31. 31 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

32. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 32

33. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting 2. Technical Solutions 33

34. 34 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million over Norfolk. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

35. 35 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 20 - 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

36. 36 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

37. 37 Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

38. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 38

39. 39 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

40. 40 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

41. 41 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy 2007 2008

42. 42 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

43. 43 S Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Low Energy Buildings and PhotoVoltaics Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the Carbon Trust.

44. 44 S Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Low Energy Buildings and PhotoVoltaics Heating Energy Requirements are equivalent to 1 domestic size central heating boiler. 80 0 35 0 Energy consumption ~ 20% of building of its size. consumption as new in 2003 was reduced by further 57% by careful record keeping, management techniques and an adaptive approach to control.

45. 45 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year

46. 46 ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor Top floor is an exhibition area – also to promote PV Windows are semi transparent Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6.7 kW in 3 arrays

47. 47 Load factors Fa ç ade (kWh) Roof (kWh) Total (kWh) 200426501940122051 200528401980922649 Output per unit area Little difference between orientations in winter months Performance of PV cells on ZICER WinterSummer Fa ç ade2%~8% Roof2%15% On roof ~100 kWh/ m 2 per annum In Norwich, domestic consumption is ~ 3700 kWh per annum >>> Need ~ 37 sq m

48. 48 All arrays of cells on roof have similar performance respond to actual solar radiation The three arrays on the façade respond differently Performance of PV cells on ZICER - January Radiation is shown as percentage of mid-day maximum to highlight passage of clouds

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50. 50 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

51. 51 Use of PV generated energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak output is 34 kW

52. 52 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. Replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic? In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.

53. 53 Other Renewable Technologies Micro Wind Vertical Axis Mini Wind

54. 54 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum

55. 55 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

56. 56 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Images from RenEnergy Website 56

57. 57 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum 57

58. 58 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Syphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kw Other Renewable Technologies 58

59. 59 Renewables Obligation: Renewable Generation in UK Data as reported in ROC Register – small amounts were generated by small non-registered sites. biomass7.8% advanced biomass0.10% Co-firing with fossil fuel 11.1% hydro < 20MW14.2% hydro < 20kW0.014% micro hydro0.4% landfill28.3% sewage2.2% waste0.014% offshore wind6.0% onshore wind30.0% small wind0.0031% photovoltaics > 50kW0.0013% photovoltaics < 50kW0.0019% wave0.0001% Proportion of electricity generated by each technology 2007 - 2008 If online Link to ROC_Register Co-firing with fossil fuel 11% 59

60. 60 biomass51.3% advanced biomass38.9% hydro < 20MW45.9% hydro < 20kW44.4% micro hydro46.8% landfill62.6% sewage49.3% waste20.0% offshore wind29.8% onshore wind26.4% small wind10.2% photovoltaics > 50kW5.6% photovoltaics < 50kW9.1% wave0.7% Load Factors 2007 - 2008 Renewables Obligation 2007 - 2008 60

61. 61 Renewable Obligation Certificates: Support for Renewables The Regulator OFGEM SUPPLIERS Trader and Brokers Renewable Generator Notifies Regulator how much generated. Sells ROCs to Trader Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE Supplier Buys ROCs from Trader ROCs issued FINES recycled in holders of ROCs in proportion to number held Because of recycling, ROCs have value greater than their nominal face value 61

62. 62 1.5p – 1.8p per kWh Recycled fines Potential Value of Renewable Generation 0.15p per kWh Embedded benefits - less losses 0.43p per kWh Climatic Change Levy Exemption 3.576p per kWh Face value of ROC 7.5 - 8.0p per kWh Wholesale Electricity Price Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ 0.2p – 0.5p per kWh Value of Renewable Generation ~13p per kWh Current Net Value of Renewable Generation ~12.5p per kWh 62

63. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 63

64. 64 Involve the local Church / Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

65. 65 Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Mini Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed Involve the local Church / Community

66. 66 Involve the local Church / Community The Broadsol Project Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

67. 67 Involve the local Church / Community Provide independent and objective advice Explain why many of the myths are wrong What happens when wind does not blow? It uses more energy to build a wind turbine than it ever generates Provide simple and understandable advice A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. Putting a lid on the saucepan save 90% of energy required. Boiling that unnecessary cup of water emits 25 cupfuls of CO 2 Turn of standby on TVs, DVDs. They use more energy while you are a sleep and each one could cost you £6 a year in energy bills.

68. 68 Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individuals response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

69. 69 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

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71. 71 Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle 71

72. 72 Historic Trends: Freight Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: –223% since 1960 –20% since 1990 Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction? 72

73. 73 Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty seats The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year. Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398 billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2 each year Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO 2 and reducing car use. 73