1. The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences Our Common Future Norwich 8 th October 2005 CRed

2. Future Global Warming Rates

3. Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001

4. 1979 2003 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years

5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

7. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

10. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

11. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

12. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003

13. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

14. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 20 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

15. Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

16. Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand) Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternative: Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

17. Hard Choices What can we do individually as Christians? What can you do collectively in your Churches? Visit the CRed WEB Site www.cred-uk.orgwww.cred-uk.org Sign a pledge to combat global warming help secure a sustainable environment for our children help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming help secure energy supplies for the future saving energy –Technical solutions –Awareness promoting appropriate renewable energy

18. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individuals response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

19. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation is available at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

20. Act of Commitment As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of Gods creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earths soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live. Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to Gods earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.

21. Act of Commitment Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish Gods creation. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earths Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth.