1. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Canada Water Accounts AET estimates for typical land cover classes over point locations with sufficient long term records of climate data. –Historical run based on observations 1960-2000 –Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC scenarios AET estimates for all sub-sub-basins in Canada. 1960-2000 –Historical run based on observations 1960-2000 –Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC scenarios http://132.156.21.53:8080/reseau/servlet/LoadAll

2. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Spatial Sampling and Modelling Domain

3. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change e.g. Province of Alberta MethodPrecipitation PInflow IETET/ (P+I) EALCO 1960-1995 (no inflow)480mm/yr0mm/yr260mm/yr54% EALCO 1960-1995 + inflows480mm/yr106mm/yr380mm/yr65% Alberta Environment water balance509mm/yr106mm/yr390mm/yr63%

4. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Basic Definitions Evapotranspiration ET – net water exchange between land or water surface and atmosphere. Transpiration T – net water exchange from within vegetation. Evaporation E = ET – T Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) - ET from a hypothetical grass reference crop with specific characteristics no short of water. “The use of other denominations such as potential ET is strongly discouraged due to ambiguities in their definitions. “http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e04.htm#evaporation

5. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change EALCO Land Surface Model Wang S.,et al. 2002a, Climatic Change, 55: 451-477 Model initialization data Input parameters (Remote sensing geospatial data) 0.5 hourly meteo-forcings Model Output (0.5 hourly water balance components)

6. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Satellite EO Inputs

7. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change CWEEDS DATA GAPS (%hours missed) Mean Annual Precipitation (1961-1990) [mm/year] Canadian Weather Energy & Engineering Data Sets (CWEEDS) Hourly Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp, Humidity, Pressure for 1960-2000. In-situ EO Input Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) stations: Daily observations of Total Precipitation and Air Temperature

8. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Gridded In-situ EO NCEP NARR, Precip., 85 March 10, 06:00 NCAR Regional Reanalysis 2 3- Hourly 30km Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp, Humidity, Pressure, wind for 1960-2000. Climate Research Unit East Anglia Gridded Analysis Monthly 0.5 degree Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp, Humidity, Pressure,wind for 1960-2000.

9. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change GCP Scenario Runs 3 GCM Models run over 3 IPCC 4AR scenarios Models: CGCM, Hadley, NCAR Scenarios –SRESA1 – business as usual –SRES A2 – moderate mitigation; –SRES B1 - aggressive mitigation Monthly difference fields observed to baseline datasets. No spatial downscaling. Baseline year taken randomly from 5 “climatalogically” most similar years. Some issues with suitability of scenario runs.

10. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Historical Trends in ET at Points Slope of modelled annual ET relative to 1960-2000 Mean Modelled ET. Dominant land cover LAI soils. Mann-Kendall significance of modelled annual ET trends 1960- 2000. Dominant land cover LAI soils.

11. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Regional Historical Trends in ET Climate zone average of modelled annual AET anomalies. Dominant land cover LAI soils. Assumes input from precipitation only (no net inflow) Impact of CO2 on AET Trends

12. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Projected Trends in AET

13. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Comparison to Diagnostic Models

14. Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Uncertainty Due to Scenarios and IPCC Models is Large