1. Adult Learning in Decline? Recent Evidence at UK National and City-Region Level Geoff Mason National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, and Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies (LLAKES) LLAKES International Conference London, 5-6 July 2010

3. Possible explanations for recent decline in adult learning ‘Rebalancing’ of government spending on adult learning towards Train to Gain and Skills for Life (basic skills training) since 2005 Financial incentives for colleges and training providers to focus primarily on courses for 16-19 year olds leading to accredited qualifications Reduced provision of vocational and leisure-related courses outside the National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) framework Increases in course fees at further education level, including reduction in proportion of adult learners who are eligible for fee remission

4. Who has been most affected by decline in adult learning? People aged between 30 and 49 Unemployed and economically inactive People holding qualifications at NVQ2 and above Striking fall in probability of graduates receiving employer-provided training -- though better-qualified people are still more likely than low-qualified people to receive such training Probability of females participating in adult learning has remained significantly higher than for males throughout the 1999-2009 period

5. LLAKES-NIESR City-Regions Dataset (1) Focus on 44 city-regions which account for just under 80% of total GB employment Definition of city-regions derived from Robson et al (ODPM, 2006) who identified 38 relatively self-contained city-regions in England and their constituent local authority districts (LADs) Identification criteria based on employment, commuting, housing and retail data 6 more city-regions added for Scotland and Wales

6. LLAKES-NIESR City-Regions Dataset (2) These city-regions tend to overlap with commuting patterns of managers and professionals Thus delineate labour markets for high-level skills surrounding urban nodes while also encompassing localised travel-to-work areas which are more relevant to lower-skilled workers Dataset built up from LAD-level data for 1994-2008 derived from Labour Force Survey (via NOMIS) and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Data available to derive measures of employment, inactivity, dependency rates, demography, average wages, workforce qualifications, job-related training and industrial structure at city-region level

7. Employment, qualification and job-related training rates, Great Britain, 2008

8. Employment rates, 2008

9. NVQ4-plus holders as % of working-age population, 2008

10. Job-related training rates, employees aged 25-retirement, 2008

11. Job-related training rate, all people aged 25-retirement in employment in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

12. NVQ4-plus holders as proportion of working-age population in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

13. Employment rates in city-regions, GB, 1994-2008

14. Skills and adult training in city-regions: multivariate analysis (1) Adult training rates at city-region level strongly positively related to proportion of workforce with high- level skills (NVQ Level 4 or above) Other positive influences: share of financial and business services in employment and annual growth rate in the population of working age Negative influence on adult training rate: share of older people (aged 50-retirement) in the total workforce Disparities in skill levels strongly reflect differences in age structure and industrial structure between city- regions Skills negatively related to the proportions of both younger persons (aged 16-24) and older persons (aged 50-retirement) in employment

15. Skills and adult training in city-regions: multivariate analysis (2) Skill levels positively related to: –share of financial and business services in total employment –share of small firms in total employment –part-time employment share Seems likely that inter-regional differences in employment rates, age structure and industrial structure associated with high-level skills are contributing indirectly to regional disparities in adult participation in training Nonetheless, large differences in adult training rates between city-regions have not diminished in recent years even though gaps in employment rates and skill levels have narrowed to some extent