1. Energy security and climate change: Recipient of James Watt Medal
CNS School 12th October 2007
Energy security and climate change:
the hard choices facing us.
Recipient of James Watt Medal
5th October 2007
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director:
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
CRed

3. Latest Temperature Data from GISS 10/09/2007

4. Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
actual
predicted
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
actual
predicted
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
actual
Predictions include:
Greenhouse Gas emissions
Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity
predicted
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

5. Increasing Occurrence of Flood Increasing Occurrence of Drought
Change in precipitation
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Increase in storminess since 1970
Heavy winter rainfall over the UK has increased by 50%
Runs of wet days have increased
More heavy rain events
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation

6. Norwich City would be playing water polo!
Consequence of ~ 1m rise
Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich
If we don’t do anything about it now, what would happen in the future is Norwich could be under water due to the large sea level rises.
To avoid working under water at UEA in a few hundreds of years, we have to quickly develop effective measures to reduce CO2 emission. One of such measures is to use carbon-free or clean fuels. Hydrogen is regarded as a clean energy carrier of the future, particularly to replace petrol for mobile application.
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich City would be playing water polo!

7. Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
Nasa satellite imagery
2003
1979
20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
Biodiesel?
Bioethanol?
Compressed gas from
methane from waste.
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Output GWh per annum
Sufficient for house in Orkney
Save tonnes of CO2

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

16. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

17. House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

18. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
There is a looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased household size
Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for hours more and must close by 2015
New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018
New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

19. Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our
COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

20. Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

21. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Business as usual
Energy Efficient Future ?
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

22. Electricity Options for the Future
Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010
But 68% growth in gas demand
(compared to 2002)
Business as Usual
257% increase in gas consumption
( compared to 2002)
The Gas Scenario
Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
25% renewables by 2025

23. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future
25% Renewables by 2025
20000 MW Wind
16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Energy Efficiency Scenario
Other Options
Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario
New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels

24. In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following
Decision Time for you
In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following
How should we generate electricity in the period up to 2030?
Beyond 2030?
How important is Energy Security?
What is important to ensure Energy Security?
What are your reactions to wind turbines?

26. Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency:
the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)
Oxford English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind
Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%
Sizewell B achieves 32%
A car engine achieve % at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

27. Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor?
The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year.
Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.
A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.
Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of turbines.
A car driven miles has a capacity factor about 4%.
A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.

28. Some Myths about Wind Energy
What happens when the wind does not blow?.
Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes.
In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable.
Wind Turbines kill birds.
Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much less
Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.
Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps birds killed a year
Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

29. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.
In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person
Is this Fair?
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

30. Raising Awareness 1.6 miles
A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year kg CO2
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
Standby on electrical appliances
60+ kWh a year balloons.
Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres)
kg of CO (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles

31. Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
Micro Wind

32. The Behavioural Dimension
Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.
Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.
Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.
Education/Awareness is important

33. Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry
Transport
Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris
Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.
Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry
Driver behaviour affects performance
Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel

34. Historic Trends: Freight Transport on Roads
Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:
223% since 1960
20% since 1990
Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

35. Electricity Statistics:
Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.
Broadland kWh Breckland kWh
North Norfolk kWh South Norfolk kWh
Kings Lynn and kWh Great kWh
West Norfolk Yarmouth
A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average.
(or 22% of total demand)
Saves ~ to tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or hot air balloons each year.
The alternatives:
Persuade motorists never to drive the car again
Or motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.
Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.

36. Involve the local Community
The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

37. Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

38. Hard Choices What can we as individuals do?
What can we do collectively as a Community?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
Sign a pledge to
combat global warming
help secure a sustainable environment for our children
help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming
help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutions
Promoting Awareness
Promoting appropriate renewable energy

39. In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following
Decision Time for you
In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following
What could you pledge to do at home?
What could CNS Pledge to do?

40. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
Otherwise Nuclear???
Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

41. Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Conclusions
Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

42. Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington
The average
family car
releases
10 grams
of CO2
every 50m
Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

45. Latest Temperature Data from GISS 10/09/2007
These represent temperatures for US only

46. Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency:
the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)
Oxford English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind
Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%
Sizewell B achieves 32%
A car engine achieve % at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

47. Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor?
The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year.
Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.
A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.
Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of turbines.
A car driven miles has a capacity factor about 4%.
A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.