1. James N. Ianelli Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock

2. Outline  Alaska pollock:  Gulf of Alaska  Eastern Bering Sea  Bogoslof and Aleutian Islands region  Russian zone Recent US-Russian negotiations  Pacific cod

3. North America Asia Donut Hole World pollock catch 1981-2002

4. Pollock Fishery Areas GOA Kamchatka EBS NBS WBS Sea of Okhotsk Aleutians

5. Est. 2002 Pollock Catch by area Total: ~2.57 million t

6. Conservation Strategies  Key Quota management acronyms ABC’s (acceptable biological catch) TAC’s (total allowable catch) OFL’s (overfishing levels) ABCTACCatch

7. GOA Gulf of Alaska

8. Gulf of Alaska pollock age 3+ biomass trend Thousands of tons 2002 survey estimate low—but 1999 yearclass well above average

9. Gulf of Alaska summary  Winter 2002 survey estimates low… 2001 TAC 105.8 thousand tons, 2002 TAC 58.25 thousand tons, 2003 likely to be between 40-60 thousand tons  1999 year class well above average  Steller sea-lions likely to affect TAC-setting in this area

10. Eastern Bering Sea Pollock GOA Kamchatka EBS NBS WBS Sea of Okhotsk Aleutians

11. Eastern Bering Sea Pollock  Biomass trends  Highly dependent on recruitment Both highly variable  Three surveys in 2002: Limited shelf acoustic survey in winter Summer trawl and acoustic surveys  Issues :  Extent of straddling stock  Steller sea lions

12. Fishery Characteristics for 2002

13. Within-year production (E. Bering Sea) k-tons

14. 2002 Winter fishery distribution

15. Catch size distribution Jan-June July - Dec

16. 2002 survey data…

17. Pollock density from bottom-trawl survey

18. Bottom temperature and pollock density…

20. Bottom-trawl survey abundance at age

21. Results from integrated model Recruitment estimates…

22. EBS Biomass trend

23. Change in age-composition estimates Age

24. Steller sea lion population update

25. Sea Lion issues  NEPA, ESA compliance problems by NMFS 1.Species still listed as “endangered” 2.Action that may affect recovery of species identified (fishing) 3.Consultation may be required for the Gulf of Alaska pollock (and other) fisheries

26. Ecosystem issues  Committee reviewing North Pacific TAC-setting process relative to ecosystem needs Report due to Council in December May look to Antarctic system (CCAMLR) for meeting perceived ecosystem requirements  Environmental factors increasing in application to all fish-stock assessments Long-term and short-term productivity

27. Other issues  Marine Stewardship Council  Final announcement delayed to early next year Eastern Bering Sea pollock apparently passed ok  Essential Fish Habitat requirements  Pollock fishery important since mid-water  Cooperative acoustic data collection established  To monitor pollock abundance in Critical Habitat

28. Acoustic return…

29. Relative s A : Survey vs Fishery

30. Aleutian Islands Region GOA Kamchatka EBS NBS WBS Sea of Okhotsk Aleutians

31. Aleutian Islands Region  Pollock stock surveyed poorly  Bottom trawl gear  Every 2 years  2002 estimate ~360,000 tons (> double estimate from 1990s)  Pollock as bycatch only since 1999 for sea lion concerns  Last year quota expectation for 2002 ~25,000 tons NOT! Set to bycatch only again…  Pollock prognosis for 2003: bycatch

32. Aleutian Islands recent surveys

33. Basin or “Donut Hole” Region  Central Bering Sea Convention  Some experimental fishing/surveys  Poor catch rates  Bogoslov survey index of this stock still low  Estimates of over 1 million tons may trigger an International Basin fishery  Recruitment patterns appear to have changed  Non contiguous parties wish for a quota Closures since 1992 Recovery not apparent

34. Bogoslov survey estimates Millions of tons Donut-hole (Central Bering Sea) Stock indicator

35. Russian Zone  Catch, Survey information  Central Bering Sea consultation GOA Kamchatka EBS NBS WBS Sea of Okhotsk Aleutians

36. Russian stock condition: Navarin basin biomass estimates

37. Russian stock condition: Western Bering Sea biomass trend  Thousands of tons age 2+

38. Russian stock condition Spawning stock size in Sea of Okhotsk Thousands of tons

39. US-Russian bilateral meetings “The disputed agreement of 1990 was signed by Eduard Shevardnadze, then USSR Minister of Foreign Affairs, and James Baker, US Secretary of State, for the USA to overtake an approximate 50,000 square kilometres of sea from Russia. The strip abounds in fish. Russia's State Fishing Committee experts estimate the annual catch of Pacific pollock alone at 200,000 tons. The agreement cost Russia an approximate 2.8 million tons of fish at more than US$1.4 billion, complain experts.”

40. Sept 2002 Moscow ICC meeting report “… The U.S. delegation made clear that the United States is not prepared to review or renegotiate the maritime boundary treaty, though the U.S. was prepared to discuss other areas of cooperation.”

41. Observed catch

42. Russian quota breakdown for 2002 Total 930,000 tons

43. Pollock Summary  Gulf of Alaska  2001 summer and 2002 winter survey estimates low  Good sign of 1999 year class (impact expected by 2004)  TAC prognosis again about ~50 kt  Aleutian Islands  Stocks Increasing  Steller sea lion issues close to resolution  TAC may be re-instated ~35,000 t  Aleutian Basin - Bogoslof:  Fishery continues to be unlikely in near future  Eastern Bering Sea  Stock outlook on track in near term, ABC expected to decline  1996 year-class not as prevalent in recent surveys  2003 TAC likely to be around 1,480 kt  Russia:  Sea of Okhotsk and other areas may be undergoing species shift Herring  Quota reductions may increase illegal fishing

44. Pacific Cod Abundance trends

45. Sea lion issues also concern Pacific cod  P. cod and Atka mackerel considered with pollock as essential for sea lions  Issue was the level of concentrations during spawning seasons within Critical Habitat  Due to the higher complexity, management problems more difficult Multiple gear-types and fishing sectors

46. Pacific Cod Outlook 2002  Gulf of Alaska projected ABC/TAC stable or slight increase  Eastern Bering Sea ABC/TAC likely to be flat Strong year classes evident but survey estimate lower  Russian Pacific cod considered stable and small

47. EBS Pacific cod biomass trend