1. DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, John Nicol Met Office: Humphrey Lean, Carol Halliwell

2. The DYMECS approach: beyond case studies NIMROD radar network rainfall Track storms in real time and automatically scan Chilbolton radar Derive properties of hundreds of storms on ~40 days: Vertical velocity 3D structure Rain & hail Ice water content TKE & dissipation rate Evaluate these properties in model varying: Resolution Microphysics scheme Sub-grid turbulence parametrization

3. Nimrod radar1.5-km model 500-m model200-m model Kirsty Hanley

4. Nimrod radar1.5-km model 500-m model200-m model Kirsty Hanley Too many Too few

5. Storm size distribution Smagorinsky mixing length plays a key role in determining number of small storms 1.5-km model 500-m model Kirsty Hanley

6. 20 April 201225 Aug 2012 200-m model best 500-m model best 200-m model best 1.5-km model best Kirsty Hanley

7. Vertical profile First 60% of storms by cloud- top height Next 30% Top 10% Thorwald Stein Ice density too low? Higher reflectivity core Observations 1.5-km model 1.5-km + graupel

8. Vertical profile First 60% of storms by cloud- top height Next 30% Top 10% Observations 200-m model 500-m model Thorwald Stein

9. Estimation of vertical velocities from continuity Vertical cross-sections (RHIs) are typically made at low elevations (e.g. < 10 °) Radial velocities provide accurate estimate of the horizontal winds Assume vertical winds are zero at the surface Working upwards, changes in horizontal winds at a given level increment the vertical wind up to that point Must account for density change with height John Nicol Key uncertainty in models is convective updraft intensity and spatial scale Can we estimate updrafts from Doppler wind sufficiently well to characterize the distribution of intensity and spatial scale?

10. Vertical wind (m/s) Retrieved vertical wind (m/s) Retrieval error (m/s) Reflectivity (dBZ) Horizontal wind (m/s) Estimating retrieval errors from the Unified Model John Nicol

11. dBZ u (m/s) w (m/s) 12:45 07 August 201116:37 07 August 2011 John Nicol

12. Scientific and modelling questions What is magnitude and scale of convective updrafts? How do two observational methods compare to model at various resolutions? What model configurations lead to the best 3D storm structure and evolution, and why? How good are predictions of hail occurrence and turbulence? How is boundary-layer grey zone best treated at high resolution, and what is the role of the Smagorinsky length scale? Does BL scheme diffuse away gust fronts necessary to capture triggering of daughter cells and if so how can this be corrected? Can models distinguish single cells, multi-cell storms & squall lines, and the location of daughter cells formed by gust fronts? What are the characteristics common to quasi-stationary storms in the UK from the large DYMECS database? Can we diagnose parameters that should be used in convection schemes from observations?