1. ATLSS Models for Predicting the Impact of Hydrology on Wildlife Populations in the Everglades Mangrove Zone of Florida Bay Jon Cline University of Tennessee

2. Overview Introduction Objectives The Ecology The Model On-going Development

3. ATLSS Objectives The ATLSS (Across Trophic Level System Simulation) hierarchy of models is designed to utilize varying levels of detail and data availability to assess the relative impact of alternative hydrological plans on the biotic components of South Florida. ATLSS is being used regularly in the ongoing planning for Everglades restoration (see http://atlss.org/).

4. Radio-telemetry Tracking Tools Abiotic Conditions Models Spatially-Explicit Species Index Models Linked Cell Models Process ModelsAge/Size Structured Models Individual-Based Models High Resolution Freshwater Hydrology High Resolution Topography Disturbance Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Snail Kite Long-legged Wading Birds Short-legged Wading Birds White-tailed Deer Alligators Lower Trophic Level ComponentsVegetation Estuarine Fish Functional Groups AlligatorsReptiles and AmphibiansWhite-tailed DeerFlorida PantherSnail KiteWading Birds © TIEM / University of Tennessee 1999 Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Crocodiles High Resolution SICS Hydrology and Salinity Freshwater Fish Functional Groups Estuarine Component Dependencies Manatees

5. Introduction ATLSS models of fish and wildlife populations in the mangrove zone –Small estuarine fish (ALFISHES) –Crocodile (currently in devlopment) –Wading birds (planned) –Manatees (planned) Linking hydrology to population dynamics

6. Objectives The primary objective of ALFISHES is to predict the impact of hydrology on resident fishes of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida bay. The ultimate goal of the model is use these predictions of fish biomass to assess the availability of prey base fish to wading birds and crocodiles.

7. The Ecology: The Habitat The creeks and flats of the Mangrove zone. Seasonal flooding Changes in bay level

8. The Ecology: Hypotheses The resident fish biomass is negatively impacted by saline period due to reduced food availability The resulting fish community is less robust than the historic one

10. The Model Landscape Greater Everglades into several sub- regions The estuarine fish model includes two sub-regions –E. Panhandle ME and –LP Key/STS ME

11. The Model Landscape with SICS Model Area Overlay

12. The Model Landscape HydrologySouthern Inland Coastal Systems (SICS) numerical model (Swain 1999) VegetationFlorida Gap Analysis Map (FGAP v6.6) TopographyATLSS High Resolution Topography (HRT)

13. The Model Landscape 500×500 meter cells Physical factors (per cell) –Water depth –Salinity –microhabitat

14. On-going Development Develop a single cell version of the model based on hydrology and elevation data collected at four field sites Extend the HRT model to include the Everglades mangrove ecotone Incorporate SICS model hydrology data into the landscape fish model