1. World Energy Outlook 2006
Scenarios for the World and the European Union
Presentation to European Wind Energy Conference
Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007

2. World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
Other renewables
Nuclear
16 000
Biomass
14 000
Gas
12 000
10 000
Mtoe
8 000
Coal
6 000
4 000
Oil
2 000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

3. Reference Scenario: World Incremental Electricity Generation by Fuel
- 500
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
TWh
Oil
Nuclear
Other renewables
Hydro
Gas
Coal
Most of the additional demand for electricity is expected to be met by coal, which remains the world’s largest source of electricity to 2030

4. Annual Increase in Coal Demand
-100
100
200
300
400
500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
China
Rest of the world
million tonnes
Global coal demand in the recent years has grown much faster than previously – mainly driven by China

5. Reference Scenario: Incremental Coal-fired Electricity Generation by Region
55%
15% 7%
14% 6% 3%
China
India
Rest of developing Asia
OECD North America
Rest of OECD
Other countries
High gas prices boost the role of coal in the OECD
7 785 TWh
Coal-fired power plants produced TWh in 2004, 40% of total world electricity output. Coal-fired generation is projected to reach TWh in 2030.
Most of the increase occurs in China, where strong demand for electricity continues to be met primarily by coal – the country’s most abundant energy resource.
Developing Asia as a whole accounts for nearly three-quarters of the increase in coal-fired generation between now and 2030.
Worldwide, high natural gas prices are making coal-fired generation competitive again. A number of coal-fired power stations are now under construction in the United States and some companies have announced plans to build coal-based power plants in Europe.
Over three-quarters of the increase in coal-fired generation is in developing Asia, based on ample coal reserves

6. Reference Scenario: Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region15
Rest of non-OECD 12 2
China
Rest of OECD 9
Gigatonnes of CO 6
United States 3
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030

7. Reference Scenario: Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel10 20 30 40 50
1990
2004
2010
2015
2030
billion tonnes
Coal
Oil
Gas
Increase of
14.3 Gt (55%)
Half of the projected increase in emissions come from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India

8. Alternative Policy Scenario

9. The Alternative Policy Scenario: Mapping a New Energy Future
The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses impact of government policies under consideration
different policies worldwide analysed to
Improve efficiency in energy production & use
Increase reliance on non-fossil fuels
Bolster output of oil & gas in net importing countries
By 2030 energy demand is reduced by 10% - equivalent China’s current consumption – and in 2015 savings are close to Japan’s consumption
By 2030, CO2 emissions are 6.3 Gt lower

10. Alternative Policy Scenario
The Alternative Policy Scenario: Key Policies for CO2 Reduction 42
Increased nuclear (10%)
Increased renewables (12%)
Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) 38
Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)
Reference Scenario
Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)
Gt of CO2 34 30
Alternative Policy Scenario 26
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS

11. Alternative Policy Scenario: Shares of non-Hydro Renewable Energy in Power Generation by Region
Most of the growth in non-hydro renewables use occurs in OECD Europe, where incentives are the strongest

12. Renewed Interest in Hydropower?
World Hydropower Potential
Hydropower output is projected to increase from TWh in 2004 to TWh by 2030, increasing at 2% year to year on average.
The share of hydropower in total electricity generation continues its downward trend, falling from 16% to l4%.
Only about 31% of the economic potential worldwide had been exploited by 2004.
Most new hydropower capacity is added in developing countries, where the remaining potential is highest.
In the OECD, the best sites have already been exploited and environmental regulations constrain new development. Most of the increase in hydropower in the OECD occurs in Turkey and Canada. Some OECD countries provide incentives for small and mini hydropower projects.
The remaining hydropower potential is still large in developing countries

13. Private Investment in Power Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990-2004
Private investment in electricity in developing countries is still a fraction of the 1997 peak…

14. World Outlook for Power Generation Renewables (GW installed)
The installed capacity of non hydro renewables increases, helping to curb emissions growth

15. Alternative Policy Scenario: Capital Costs of Renewables-Based Technologies
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Co-firing
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Geothermal
Solar thermal
Medium-scale CHP plant
Tide and wave
Solar photovoltaic
Biowaste
dollars (2005) per kW
2030
2004
The capital costs of renewables fall over time, with wind power the most competitive for new plant

16. Emissions per unit of electricity fall faster than ever in APS
Alternative Policy Scenario: CO2 Emissions per kWh of Electricity Generated
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
grammes of CO 2
per kWh
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Emissions per unit of electricity fall faster than ever in APS

17. Focus on the European Union
Power Generation:
European Emissions Trading Scheme and linkage to Kyoto Protocol Project Mechanisms
Electricity Market Directive
Directive on Renewable Energy in Power Generation
Directive for the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power
Transport:
Voluntary agreement with car manufacturer’s associations to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars
Biofuels Directive
Extension of Emissions Trading to aviation
Other:
Green Paper on Energy Security
Directive on the Promotion of end-use efficiency and energy services
Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings
Directive on the Eco-Design of Energy-using Products
Biomass Action Plan

18. Focus on European Union: Primary Fuel Mix0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004
Reference Scenario in
2030
APS in
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Renewable energy and nuclear power are much higher in the APS

19. Focus on European Union : Power Generation Capacity Increases
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 MW
Existing
Additions
Capacity additions until 2030 are larger than current installed capacity. By 2015 more than a quarter of today’s coal fired plants will be retired.

20. New Generation Capacity in the European Union
Under construction = 40 GW
Planned = 169 GW 9% 5%
17% 1%
21%
21% 1%
10% 5% 2%
58%
50%
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other Renewables
CCGTs still dominate investors’ plans in Europe

21. Focus on European Union: Share of Nuclear & Renewables0% 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004
Nuclear in Reference Scenario
Renewables in Reference Scenario
Additional Share of Nuclear in APS
Additional Share of Renewables in APS
2004
2015
2030
The share of carbon free power generation will increase from 46% today to 58% in APS in 2030, while it declines to 41% in the Reference Scenario

22. Wind power installed capacity increases sixfold between 2004 and 2030
EU25 Outlook for Power Generation – non hydro Renewables (GW installed) 50
100
150
200
2004
2030 APS GW
Wind Onshore
Wind Offshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
Tide/Wave
Geothermal
Wind power installed capacity increases sixfold between 2004 and 2030

23. Focus on European Union : Energy-Related CO2 emissions
3 000
3 200
3 400
3 600
3 800
4 000
4 200
4 400
4 600
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Mt of CO 2
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
% of Reference Scenario 4%
18%
CO2 emissions are much lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario

24. Focus on European Union: CO2 Emissions Reduction, 2030
750 Mt of CO2
End-use fuel-
efficiency
measures , 31%
End-use electricity-
measures, 25%
Fuel switching and
improved
efficiency on the
supply side, 12%
Renewables and
biofuels, 12%
Nuclear, 20%
Efficiency improvements account for most of the
emissions reduction in APS

25. Focus on European Union: Electricity Investment, 2005-2030
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
100
200
300
billion dollars (2005)
Additional demand-side investment
Avoided supply-side investment
Net change in electricity investment
Investment needs are $139 billion lower over the projection period

26. Some concluding thoughts…
On current trends, the global energy system will remain vulnerable, dirty & expensive
Numbers speak for themselves : no sustainable/meaningful solution without having China and India on board
Policies to promote energy efficiency, renewables & nuclear can make a significant difference
Economic cost of these policies would be more than outweighed by the economic benefits
Urgent government action is needed to incentivise investment in cleaner & more secure energy
The next ten years will lock in technology for up to 60 years
China and India - growing at breakneck speed fueled by energy
OECD power plants – significant portion reaching to retirement