1. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 1 Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights presented to Virginia Department of Emergency Management by the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems October 6, 2000

2. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 2 Project Team Virginia Department of Transportation Travis Bridewell Lynwood Butner Mac Clarke Perry Cogburn Jon DuFresne Stephany Hanshaw Steve Mondul Gerald Venable Virginia Transportation Research Council Wayne Ferguson

3. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 3 Project Team (cont.) Students Ryan Finseth Clare Patterson TJ Zitkevitz Linn Koo Richie Moutoux Advisors Professor James H. Lambert Professor Yacov Y. Haimes

4. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 4 Overview of Presentation Introduction Overview of Project and Goals Retrofitting and Upgrading Options Spares and Reserves Options Priority Setting Recommendations

5. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 5 Motivation Why a Recovery Plan is Needed –Restore mobility and save lives –Solicit aid from FEMA and FHWA –Estimate $30-60 billion if categ.4 hit Hampton Rds, Richmond, and NoVa (Source: 97 Post Hurricane Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute) Current Plan –Allows inventory only for routine damage –Absent rationale for recovery priorities

6. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 6 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Categories

7. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 7 Hurricane Andrew Impacts Dade County, FL Replaced 2,000 signal heads at 400 intersections Replaced signs –7 Overhead structure signs –45 Multipost ground mounted signs –169 Single post ground mounted signs –5 Span-wire attached signs Compared with ‘Groundhog Storms’ (1998) –40 Signal heads –No damage to signs reported Storage of these items is associated with scheduled maintenance or upgrades to the system Source: Fr. Adofo Fassrainer, FDOT-D6 OPERATIONS

8. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 8 Hurricane Floyd Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in mid- September, causing significant flood damage 56 deaths made Floyd the deadliest US hurricane since Agnes in 1972 Roads did not receive much wind damage, but flooding closed many roads in Virginia

9. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 9 Hurricane Floyd Damage

10. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 10 Suffolk District Interstates 64, 264, 464, 564, and 664 US Routes 13, 17, 58, 60, 258, 460 State Routes 44, 164, and 168

11. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 11 Project Objective The goal of the effort is to aid the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) in planning and management for the hurricane recovery of highway signs, lights, and signals through assessment of the risks, costs, and benefits of alternatives.

12. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 12 Project Structure

13. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 13 Equipment Upgrade

14. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 14 Wind Speed Assumptions Not all equipment experience maximum sustained wind speed Most equipment experience less than maximum sustained wind speed Few equipment experience wind speeds greater than max sustained wind speed

15. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 15 Distributions of Damage

16. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 16 Three Upgrade Levels

17. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 17 Upgrading Costs* *communicated with Vince Roney, Suffolk District

18. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 18 Upgrading Trade-off Analysis

19. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 19 Upgrading Cost Trade-off

20. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 20 Spares and Reserves Options

21. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 21 Spares and Reserves Motivation –Currently VDOT and others prepare for low level damage –New spares and reserves leads to faster, cheaper post-hurricane recovery Objective –Assess the costs and benefits of inventory options

22. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 22 Spares Options Options in terms of % of damageable equipment currently installed on roadways

23. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 23 Spares Cost Analysis Pre Hurricane Costs –Cost to increase current level –Annualized cost under low demand –Yearly storage cost Post Hurricane Costs –Affected by hurricane severity –Costs under moderate and high demand

24. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 24 Post Hurricane Costs Option 3 Option 2 Option 1 I (low damage, mod demand) II (moderate damage, mod demand) III (extensive damage, mod demand) IV (extreme damage, high demand) V (catastrophic damage, high demand) $ $ $ $ $

25. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 25 Spares Cost Assumptions Signs will be produced in-house unless under extreme demand (Paul Balderson) –Sign shops provide signs at cost All other equipment will be purchased from contractors –Shops not equipped to produce cantilevers, signals, and lights Cost of purchasing equipment increases by 2-3 times under heightened demand

26. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 26 Obtained Inventory Data

27. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 27 Option 3 Status Quo Option 2 Option 1 Investment in Spares vs. Post Hurricane Cost (Ground Signs)

28. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 28 Time to Recovery under Spares Options Reduction of Time to Recovery –Spares and reserves –Reduction in manufacture and delivery time –Immediate replacement of equipment Data used in calculation –Manufacture and delivery time –Installation time

29. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 29 Option3 Status Quo Option2 Option1 Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground Signs)

30. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 30 Priority Setting

31. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 31 Features of Priority Setting Importance of roads and intersections based on critical facilities and condition of road network Restoring or replacing damaged equipment Critical facilities are those necessary for a community’s well-being

32. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 32 Classification of Critical Facilities

33. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 33 Critical Facilities

34. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 34 Geographic Information Systems Build on an existing GIS database of VDOT roads Network model in Arcview to create prioritization tool Using Arcview’s Network Analyst for optimization

35. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 35 Electronic Road Map Two sources for electronic road maps VDOT’s “Network Level Basemap” –Used to establish road system from which network model will be created Census maps obtained from UVA Library –Used for geocoding addresses

36. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 36 Example of Arcview Map Suffolk District Hampton Roads Emporia Williamsburg Eastern Shore

37. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 37 Facility Data Working with the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission to get data on locations of critical facilities HRPDC’s databases are much more complete and accurate than any data collection we can do Data acquisition and formatting is ongoing

38. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 38 Norfolk Facility Data

39. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 39 Phases of Preparedness ….

40. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 40 From Map to Network Model The Arcview maps need translation to a mathematical model Data consists of intersections, road segments, and various classes of critical facilities Mathematical model is in terms of nodes, arcs, and levels of supply and demand

41. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 41 Optimization of Recovery

42. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 42 Recommendations Consider three remedies: 1) Upgrading equipment 2) Increasing spares and reserves 3) Priority setting of roads for recovery

43. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 43 Sample of Recommendations Upgrading overhead (two pole span) signs on critical routes (10% of installed base = 35 signs ) –Assume pay 3.3% of total cost annually –Replacement cost per sign = $75,000 * Over 30 years

44. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 44 Sample of Recommendations (cont.) Spares for ground signs in Suffolk District –Assume pay 5% of total cost annually (12,000 installed) * Over 20 years

45. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 45 Recommendations (cont.)  Notice the problem: Hurricanes can cause region- wide damage to traffic equipment  Consider short (days or weeks), medium (months), and long-term (years) aspects of recovery  Short-- Hospitals, Medium-- Schools, Long-- All  Evaluate different upgrading or spares policies by assessing the cost before a hurricane strikes and the damage, cost, and recovery time after a hurricane

46. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 46 Recommendations (cont.)  Adapt spares and reserves to hurricane-center and other seasonal forecasts  Perform impact analysis using the various storm categories  Adopt the models for estimating the costs and effectiveness of upgrading and spares policies  Consider upgrading only routes critical to a community’s well-being in a hurricane

47. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 47 Recommendations (cont.)  Consider critical facilities throughout the road network in setting priorities for recovery  Consider the following facilities as critical: emergency, education, government, military, operations, commerce, communications, and transportation.  Maintain a web site for support of recovery of signs, signals, and lights.