1. SOUTH ASIA NUCLEAR (IN)SECURITY?
Dr. J. Jeganaathan
Assistant Professor
Department of National Security Studies
Central University of Jammu – Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) – INDIA

2. South Asia: A Region without Regionalism
Indian subcontinent to South Asia
Home to more than 2,000 ethnicities across 7 countries with an estimated population of 1.64 bn people
Region with multiple identities
Two nuclear armed rivalries
One of the most volatile regions in the world
Parochial nationalism overshadows regionalism

3. Nuclearisation of South Asia: A quest for Strategic Parity?
Indo-Pak Conflict
Liberation of Bangladesh, a decisive phase
Sino-India Rivalry
1962 War
Boundary disputes

4. Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia Theory and Practice
What is deterrence?
‘Deterrence is a belief on strategic capability to avoid or prevent itself from being attacked by its opponents - the opponents believe that it is not worth to take a military action on the state.’
(Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, 1998).

5. Types of Deterrence Deterrence by Denial Deterrence by Punishment
Threat to deny an adversary the ability to achieve its military and political objectives through aggression
Deterrence by Punishment
"Deterrence by punishment may be posed an action on other state's industry, population, or even the lives of its leader". (Keith B. Payne and C. Dale Walton, 2002)
Deterrence by Defeat
Deterrence by defeat shows the state will not to engage or initiate a war because the state certainty that it will be defeated

6. Indo-Pak MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)

7. Indo-Pak Nuclear Equality

8. Kargil War & Nuclear Deterrence
Deterrence by denial is deterrence failed
“Strategic stability permits, if not creates, instability by making lower levels of violence relatively safe because escalation up the nuclear ladder is too dangerous.” – Robert Jervis

9. Post-9/11 Deterrence by Punishment
2001 – Parliament Attack
2002 – Operation Parakram
2003 – Ceasefire Agreement
2005 – Indo-US Nuclear Deal
2008 – Mumbai Attack
2011 – Operation Abbottabad
2012 – Induction of Battlefield Nuclear Weapons by Pakistan (Nasr)

10. Is Nuclear South Asia More Stable?
Indian Army’s ‘Cold-start Doctrine’
Deployment of Pakistan’s Battlefield Nuclear Weapons
Waning US reassurances to Pak in case of conventional war by India due to selective action against homegrown terrorist groups

11. Cold Start: Myth & Reality
Cold Start, India's forces would be put in place along the border, where they could attack quickly, make shallow penetrations into Pakistan, and seize slices of land. The seized territory would then be used as leverage to force Pakistan to act against terrorists within its borders (Smith, 2011: 207).

12. Pak’s Battlefield Nukes Self-defeating or Self-assuring?
“If Pakistan were to suffer an overwhelmingly large number of civilian and military casualties when a Nasr is detonated, then is the weapon really a deterrent?” (J. Sankaran, 2014)
“The purpose behind the development of Battlefield Nuclear Weapons and Hatf II (Abdali) is to counter the Indian Cold Start doctrine”
(Director General, Strategic Plans Division, Lt. Gen. (retd.) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai)

13. Nuclear Weapons: More May be Worse
Production of more nuclear weapons may be worse for South Asia Security & Stability because of conflict escalation and nuclear terrorism