1. Forest Fire Detection in Ontario Rob McAlpine Program Leader, Forest Fire Science and Technology Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Aviation and Forest Fire Management Branch

2. Talk Outline Outline of Fire Management in Ontario History of Fire Detection Current Detection operations Detection Results Challenges

3. Ontario’s Fire Management Program Forests cover 85% of Ontario’s land area and forest fires have shaped much of this environment. Land cover composed primarily of Boreal and Mixedwood Forests. Ontario averages roughly 1,300 fires annually. $94 million spent annually to protect communities and natural resources. $4.1 billion in Gross Provincial Income annually attributed to forest fire protection.

4. Policy Fire Management Strategies 6 Fire Management Zones Southern Ontario Southern Ontario Parks Parks Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Boreal Boreal Northern Boreal Northern Boreal Hudson Bay Hudson Bay Ecoregion-based planning rather than zones based on geographically or politically based Ecoregion-based planning rather than zones based on geographically or politically based

5. Policy Fire Management Strategy Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire use Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire use Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits.Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits. New performance measures have been developed: New performance measures have been developed: Forest Depletion Area BurnedForest Depletion Area Burned Hazard Reduction Area BurnedHazard Reduction Area Burned Ecosystem Renewal Area BurnedEcosystem Renewal Area Burned A flexible response to fires through the concept of Managed Fire. A flexible response to fires through the concept of Managed Fire.

6. Performance The key performance measure is Initial Attack Success Target is 96% IA Success

7. Annual Number of Fires 10 year average - 1,283

8. Annual Hectares Burned 10 year average – 152,188

9. Forest Fire Management Objectives: To prevent personal injury, value loss and social disruption. To promote understanding of the ecological role of fire and to utilize its beneficial effects in resource management.

10. Organization Two Regional Fires Centers direct day-to day operations A Provincial Fire Centre oversees two Fire Region Centres 29 Attack bases 225 Permanent staff and 760 seasonal positions District Office Response Centre

11. Detection in Ontario At the turn of the century Ontario began to build towers Most towers were erected between 1920 and 1950 At the peak there were 320 active towers During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s most towers were decommissioned – replaced with Aerial detection

13. Aerial - Fleet of 15 Contract Aircraft Public - Common reporting system Reports direct to Fire Centres Current Fire Detection Program

14. Detection Planning Aerial Detection advantage is flexibility Detection planning is based on risk, expected fire starts, and expected fire behavior

15. Detection Costs Basing fees = $675,000 for 15 contract aircraft Positioning Fees = $225,000 Flying costs = $325 to $635 /hour/aircraft. Average 270 hours per aircraft for approximate flying costs $2,000,000 Spend around $3.0 million annually on organized detection

16. Results Or: –What did we buy with that $3,000,000? Or: –Some Embarrassing Statistics

17. Sources of Fire Reports

18. Percent Discovery By Type LowModerateHighExtreme Organized Detection53%55%51%50% Random Detection47%45%49%50% FWI Class Lightning Fires Only

19. LowModerateHighExtreme Organized Detection0.370.510.691.01 Random Detection0.500.430.600.71 Discovery Size (ha) FWI Class

21. Challenges Performance measures Investment level Integration of new technology

22. Performance Measures Audit Results Working towards A robust performance measure Recognize Detection as Part of a larger system

23. Life Cycle of a Forest Fire

24. Detection Performance Goal of Forest Fire Detection: Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success at a minimum cost. Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success at a minimum cost. Draft Goal

25. Detection Performance Goal of Organized Forest Fire Detection: Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success without competing with other detection sources Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success without competing with other detection sources Draft Goal

26. Conceptual Detection Target Detection SizeExpected Fire Behavior 96% likely successful Initial Attack Different Suppression Weights

27. Detection Performance Complicating Factors Cost Trade Offs –Suppression weight vs additional detection Build in “Random Detection” into system –do not want to compete

28. Summary Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed Fire Fire load and area burned is highly variable Ontario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detection Most fires are detected by “random” sources Working towards a robust performance measure

29. Thank You