1. The Birth of Statistics The Social Mechanics of Crime: Adolphe Quetelet

2. Statistics Central component of criminological theories that seek to explain criminality But what do statistics tell us? 1. Norms  Standard  Ordinary 2. Rates  Indicators of trends  Used to predict

3. Birth of Statistics (early 1800s): Social Context  Democratic State  Emergence of Welfare State (taxation)  Industrial Revolution  Model of factory/society  Duty tied to rational production  Urbanization  Dangerous Classes :  not controlled by ideology of industry or the social contract  Counts related to diseases – moral panics

4. Birth of Statistics (early 1800s): Social Context Media  Emerging literacy  Moral Panics  Overreaction about particular groups Science: Desire to control nature  Natural laws /social laws  Personal freedom  limited by environment & constitution

5. Statistics Desire of Government to control population  Practices of enumeration  Previously for taxation  Training /standards of conduct  Church & military  State encroaches on social life  Knowledge on citizens expands  Welfare state (‘programs’ & tax payers)

6. Crime Statistics Compte 1827  General record of all criminal offences in Paris  Divided by types of justice system (civic or criminal) Records indicate: 1. Number of previous offences 2. If accused was acquitted or convicted 3. Punishment (if convicted) 4. Time of year of offence 5. Age, sex, occupation and education of accused Became more detailed over time, looking for correlates Records about ‘habits’ begin to circulate...

7. Adolphe Quetelet 1796-1874 Key: methodological & conceptual contributions Biography  Avoided deterministic arguments of later positivism  Known for scientific rigor  Math & Astronomy  Academic (not concerned with crime orig.)

8. Social Mechanics Interest in applying natural laws to human actions:  Social facts: social laws governing societies  Laws identified through analysis of statistics  Think about the criteria of critical theory…..

9. Quetelet’s 3 Statistical Rules 1. Average ‘man’ = natural distribution  Bell curve (midpoint)  Average person = centre of gravity  Physical characteristics of a population  Moral statistics (suicide, marriage, etc) KEY: Individual differences not as important as the SUM of individuals (Society)

10. Quetelet’s Statistical Rules 2. Law of large numbers  Need a large sample 3. Law of Regularity  Changes are rare  Predictability

11. Moral Statistics Statistics indicate social problems  Crime, suicide, etc... because of freewill: Social laws are more complex than natural law because of freewill:  Not reducible to individuals  Space for freedom to act  Laws govern human behaviour  Humans somewhat predictable (social beings) We study moral statistics today...

12. Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829 Consistency of Crime  Types of murders and property offences  Regularities in court practices Patterns exist! Dark Figure of Crime  Aware problems of statistics

13. Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829 Criminal Propensity  Everyone has potential to be ‘criminal’ *  Propensity, not determinism!  Propensity could be visualized  Probability & chance  Individuality  Individuality was the ‘chance’ that impacted the ‘probability’ of criminality

14. Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829 Individuality:  Upbringing  Ability to improve situation Young males, poor uneducated without employment or in lowly employment would have a greater propensity to commit crimes. Poverty and lack of education did not cause crime! Extreme disparity (temptation & suffering) did....

15. Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829 Society as the cause of crime:  Society ‘prepares’ crime, the guilty are the instruments by which it is executed  Social conditions individual will  Social conditions are more influential than individual will Quetelet’s thesis supports:  Social transformation  Less focus on incarceration as deterrence