3. By development we mean

5. By sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

6. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

7. Nordhouse

8. richpoor GNP PPP/person $26,320$4,450 population (billion) 1.25.3 % increase/year 0.11.5 % with HIV/AIDS 0.51.4 infant mortality rate 6/100059/1000 children/woman1.63.0 life expectancy 7665 % urban 7641 people/km 2 2464 Today’s divided world

9. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

10. GDP Wealth increases 7yr doubling 10 yr doubling

11. GDP = C + I + E + G C = Consumer Spending I = Investment made by industry E = Excess of Exports over Imports G = Government Spending

12. Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be. ° Health - life expectancy ° GDP - the usual measure of welfare Add them up, normalize, range from.0 to 1.000 Norway is top rank, Niger bottom, Afghanistan next to last (2009) US is #13, China #92, India 134, Australia #2 http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

13. GDP can be high and development low HDI GDP

14. Life expectancy

15. Gapminder

16. The distribution appears to have two parts

17. Gapminder Which direction is causation? Does improved health create wealth, or does wealth lead to improved health?

19. Maternal mortality

20. Young female illiteracy

21. Human development HDI A few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain

22. Human development declines

23. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

24. HDI GDP

25. Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading The Happy Planet Index! GDP per capita PPP adjusted Life expectancy x Life satisfaction Ecological footprint

26. Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modal The Happy Planet Index!

27. Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure). What governs the current global distribution of welfare? Does geography/environment matter?

28. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

29. GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

30. Very few outliers

31. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

32. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

33. xtxt X t+1 Solow growth More realistic growth model

34. xtxt X t+1 Stagnation - poverty trap xcxc Growth

35. xtxt X t+1 xcxc Growth Stagnation

36. Output density and temperature Nordhaus W D PNAS 2006;103:3510-3517 Output per capita and temperature

37. What causes this development gap?

38. Can development get started? Can prosperity be maintained?

39. How big is the problem?

41. Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to prosper, then closing the development gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic output.

42. BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution.

43. All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a: 6-8 fold increase economic for only a 50% population increase What’s the problem?

44. If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??

45. 80 fold

46. The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless relative to population. Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

47. What causes this development gap?

48. Real World GDP Global disease burden (M. Bonds) DALY=YYL+YLD YYL years of life lost; YLD years lived with disability

49. Global distribution of DALYs

50. Latitude Most of the the world’s chronically ill people are in the tropics

51. Malaria Ecology Index

52. Very low soil fertility Soil fertility CGAIR

53. The Poverty Trap A "any self-reinforcing mechanism which causes poverty to persist.” In a poor country you are very likely to become ill – poverty leads to illness Illness prevents you from working and attending school – illness leads to poverty

56. The worlds climate zones are more or less temperature zones

57. Climate zones are controlled by the large- scale circulation of the atmosphere Hadley cell Ferrell cell Polar cell

58. 58 Rain forests here Deserts here

59. Large-scale circulation of the atmosphere “determines” our welfare Hadley cell: poor Ferrell cell: wealthy Polar cell: impossible

60. 60 Climate zones are (almost) rainfall zones

61. Agro-ecological zones

63. Does this say that aggressive appropriation of energy assets is needed for growth?

64. World coal production

65. World coal proven reserves

66. Carbon dioxide per capita 2002

67. Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit

69. Is aggressive appropriation of the biosphere necessary for development or a consequence of it?

70. Is wealth or poverty the greatest threat to biodiversity loss?

71. The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

72. Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

73. Is this the only way development can happen? What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

74. Ideal green spot What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

75. What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

76. “Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?” Sir Partha Dasgupta