1. Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 Enrico Weber DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 12 – Thac Ba policy design INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

2. The Red-Thai Binh River basin

3. Thac Ba release optimization All photo from http://cwrct.wrd.gov.vn

4. Experiment settings Energy demand [GWh] 2 alternative hydropower objectives: 1) max Energy Production 2) min Weighted Deficit Deficit weight [%]

5. Off-line Management Problem or s.t.

6. Experiment settings Horizon: 2002/01/01-2012/07/31 Reservoir inflow [m3/s]

7. Stochastic inflow model: AR(0)

8. Design algorithm Stochastic Dynamic Programming

9. First results Historical Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted DeficitYearly Threshold Violation Days x year [m]

10. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

11. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

12. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

13. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

14. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Compromise [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

15. First results Historical [GWh] Deficit Weight Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

16. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

17. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

18. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

19. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

20. First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Compromise Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

21. Thanks for your attention XIN CẢM ƠN