1. Voting III 4/3/2012

2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and explain the role of formal and informal institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. – to assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

3. Office Hours and Readings Chapter 4 (pp. 110-129) Chapter 5 Office Hours – Today 11-2 – Wednesday 10-2

4. DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION

5. America is Obsessed with Polling Why Polls – Raise issues – Gauge support – Get specific opinions Everyone Uses them – Candidates – Media – Elected officials

6. The GOP

7. What is Sampling? selecting a representative part of a population To determine parameters of the whole population.

8. The Concept of Sampling Blood Tests Food Tests

9. The Practicality of Sampling Time Money Size

10. How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million? Responses Cancel each other out No New opinions are added

11. PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING

12. No Sample is Perfect All samples have error Large Samples= Less Error

14. All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters

15. Question Bias Leading Questions Double Barreled Questions

16. Liars Socially Acceptable Questions Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the SchoolyardSchoolyard – Don't tattle – Always make fun of those different from you. – Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone feels exactly the same way you do.

17. Always Check Who sponsored the poll How they got the sample How big was the sample

18. IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION

19. Do they Listen? Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion

20. Why Not? General vs. Intense opinion Voting vs. general public Opinion is only one form of participation

21. Opinions can change quickly

22. We Give answers to anything

23. We Know Why We Vote

24. BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

25. Very Simple

26. PARTY IDENTIFICATION The Long Term Factor

27. Party ID Psychological attachment to one of the parties Long Term Factor Best Predictor of Voting Influences other short- term factors

28. Cleveland Rocks

29. Party ID Rocks

30. 2008 Vote by Party ID

31. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain There are more Democrats in the electorate Obama wins

32. ISSUE VOTING This is hard

33. Issue Voting is Hard We are clueless Too many issues We don’t trust or understand policy

34. Easy/Single Issue Voting

35. Most Important Issues in 2008

36. Retrospective Analysis Looking back at the economy Easier to do if there is an incumbent

37. The Economy The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy McCain

38. Economics

40. CANDIDATE APPRAISALS We Vote for Who We Like

41. Party Image Impacts our views of the candidate Very important for prospective voting McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

42. The Republican Brand

43. The Third Term

44. Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

46. McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

47. Candidate Image Try to create your own Use issues to your advantage Don’t Let the Media create one for you

48. Hope and Change A message that worked It meant everything and nothing at the same time

49. Change Randy Marsh on – Change Change – Change Change

50. Hope as a message

51. Change

52. Bad Images

53. THE ELECTION OF 2010

54. The Results

55. The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

56. Party ID Rules the Day

57. People do not like Congress

58. Issues and 2010

59. The Issues of 2010

60. THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

61. A Referendum on the Economy

62. Unemployment

63. Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

64. A Referendum on Obama

65. THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

66. The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Very Motivated Angry at Government

67. The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

68. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

69. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

70. BETTING ON OBAMA The odds in 2012

71. Campaign Finance $1,000,000,000 Independent Expenditures as Well Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

72. The Electoral College

73. Popular on the Left Strong Support Among Democrats Very popular among key constituencies Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

74. Overall Popularity Close To 50%

75. Unemployment is Lower

76. GDP Growth

77. Figure 9.4Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

78. For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the Republican Map

79. SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTE Voting in a Comparative Perspective

81. Why so high elsewhere? Compulsory voting Fewer Elections PR systems and MMD

82. Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA Easier To Register A National two-party system A better-educated population

83. Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of Participation

84. TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

85. Why Low turnout is bad Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do Voting levels the playing field Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

86. Why Low Turnout is not that bad Low Turnout is actually a good thingthing People are not voting for the wrong candidate Stability in the System Voting is only one way of participation

87. Ways to Increase Turnout Continue to Lower Costs – Mandatory voting – Same Day Registration – Mail and Internet voting – Weekend Voting – Holiday Voting