1. 1 John Ferree Severe Storms Services Leader NOAA National Weather Service Partner’s Meeting, June 18, 2008 National Weather Service Storm-Based Warnings

2. 2 Outline Storm-Based Warnings Overview Active Year - How are we doing? Improving Severe Storms Services US Weather Bureau Tornado Warnings ~1960 Storm-Based Warnings Oct. 1, 2007 1950 1960 2008 2000 1990 1980 1970 First Tornado Warning 1948 Polygons added 1998 NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) 1975 NWR S.A.M.E FIPS Codes 1988 S.A.M.E Standard 2003

3. 3 County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology Storm-Based Warnings Implemented October 1, 2007 Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned

4. 4 Storm-Based Warnings How are we doing so far? Lot of ways to measure success –Probability of Detection (Accuracy) –Lead Time –False Alarm Rate –Reduction in False Alarm Area –Qualitative Assessment

5. 5 County Area Ratio Polygon size to County Size Compliments of Daryl Herzmann at Iowa Environmental Mesonet

6. 6 2008 – A lot of tornados

7. 7 2008 - Now at 110 tornado fatalities most since 1998 Super Tuesday Outbreak – Feb 5/6 –56 Fatalities, 391 Injuries, $0.5 Billion in damages Mother’s Day Outbreak - May 10/11 –EF4 Picher, OK to Neosho MO Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak

8. 8 Storm-Based Warning Issues Large polygons Less than 1% of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Large threat areas Warnings with too much text Related to large polygons Odd shaped polygons Land/Marine interfaces County Warning Area boundaries Tornado Warning Polygon and Velocity Couplet Little Sioux Campground June 11, 2008

9. 9 Large Polygons – Long Text Remove this includes the city of Limit to 12 counties/parishes New format (2+ yrs away)

10. 10 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 211 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 207 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BULLUCK... OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF LUVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY. THIS IS SERIOUS. NUMEROUS DAMAGE REPORTS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE NWES OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. TAKE COVER NOW! THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OBSCURING THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT USE YOUR VEHICLE TO TRY TO OUTRUN AN APPROACHING TORNADO. ANY SIZE OF VEHICLE CAN BE EASILY BE TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADIC WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE STRUCTURE IS AVAILABLE... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. Too much text Takes time to compose and transmit Impact of Call-To- Action statements minimized by length Add Call-To-Action marker BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 211 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 207 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BULLUCK... OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF LUVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY. THIS IS SERIOUS. NUMEROUS DAMAGE REPORTS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE NWES OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. TAKE COVER NOW! THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OBSCURING THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT USE YOUR VEHICLE TO TRY TO OUTRUN AN APPROACHING TORNADO. ANY SIZE OF VEHICLE CAN BE EASILY BE TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADIC WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE STRUCTURE IS AVAILABLE... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 211 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 207 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BULLUCK... OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF LUVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY. THIS IS SERIOUS. NUMEROUS DAMAGE REPORTS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE NWES OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. TAKE COVER NOW! THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 211 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 207 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BULLUCK... OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF LUVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS SERIOUS. NUMEROUS DAMAGE REPORTS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE NWES OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. TAKE COVER NOW! THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. &&

11. 11 Odd shaped polygons Land/Marine boundary County Warning Area Boundary Editing out small portions of counties Errors – No QC

12. 12 Two other issues of interest Use of “Tornado Emergency” headline Watch extensions in time and area Vehicle in Picher Oklahoma May 10, 2008 Hook Echo – Super Resolution WSR-88D Two Tornadoes May 26, 2008

13. 13 Tornado Emergency First used on May 3, 1999 –Moore / Oklahoma City F5 Used ~ 6 times/year since 1999 No policy In exceedingly rare situations, when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a tornado is imminent or ongoing, the forecaster may insert the headline "...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR [GEOGRAPHIC AREA]...". Additionally, in such a situation, this headline should only be used when reliable sources confirm a tornado, or there is clear radar evidence of the existence of a damaging tornado such as the observation of debris. Proposed Wording for NWSI 10-511

14. 14 Watch extensions in time and area Complex system –Extensions in time must be coordinated One watch All counties not cancelled are extended –Extensions in area only available to WFO’s already in the watch Forecaster Training Tornado between Parkersburg and New Hartford at 5:05 pm. Photo taken by NWS Des Moines Meteorologist Rod Donavon

15. 15 Status of Storm Based Warnings Performance exceeding expectations –A very active year Several issues –Large Warnings –Too Much Text –Odd Shaped Polygons Policy for “Tornado Emergency” Watch-By-County issues –Extensions in time –Extensions in area

16. 16 Contact Information John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov 405-325-2209 John Ferree 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Suite 2312 Norman, OK 73072

17. 17 Proposed Dissemination Workshop Goal –Partner input on new warning formats CAP, Grid, GIS, others When –1PM on Nov. 5, 2008 through 5PM on Nov. 6. 2008 Where –Norman, OK –Silver Spring, MD –Other?