1. Earth System Feedbacks: Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle to Drought and Fire Canberra, Australia 5-8 June 2006 – Part I 8-9 June 2006 – Part II (Australia focus) Organized by: Global Carbon Project ARC Network for Earth System Science CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Australian Climate Change Science Program Australian Academy of Science Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System European Space Agency

2. The Earth System Science Partnership Carbon-Climate-Human system

3. 1. Patterns and Variability 1.1. Enhancing Observations 1.2. Model-data Synthesis 1.3 Carbon Budgets 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks 2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechan. 2.2. Emergent Properties of the Carbon-Climate system 2.3. Vulnerabilities of the C-C-H 3. Carbon Management 3.1. Mitigation Options 3.2. Carbon Management & Sustainability 3.3. Regional/Urban Develop. GCP Science Framework

4. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.- Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Oceans Land Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Many Pools and Processes not included in Earth System models 2006/07

5. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.- Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Oceans Land Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models >400 Pg C - frozen sediments vulnerable to warming 400 Pg C - frozen soils vulnerable to warming

6. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.- Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Oceans Land Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Photo: Erkki Oksanen 400 Pg C – cold peatlands vulnerable to climate change 100 Pg C – tropical peatlands vulnerable to land use and climate change

7. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.- Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Oceans Land Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006 Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models >500 Pg C vegetation and soils vulnerable to drought x land use x fire

8. Mouillot et al. 2006 Trends in C Emissions from Fires 200 600 1000 1400 1800 190519251945 1995 2500 3000 3500 Tg C yr -1 tropical savanna tropical forest temperate forest boreal forest total 1965

9. Difference Coupled-Uncoupled Atmospheric CO 2 (ppm) Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Friedlingstein et al. 2006 10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle 20 to 200 ppm 0.1°C to 1.5 ° C

10. CO 2 Concentrations ~250 ppm IPCC SRES 2000; IPCC TAR 2001 Fossil Fuel + Land Use Change Scenarios (IPCC SRES)

11. Examples of vulnerable C pools to drought of global significance Drought and Fire Drought and Land Use WC Forest Savanna SE Forest Boreal Fires Temp. Plantations Borneo Peatlands 2003 Heat Wave Boreal Forest NH Drought

12. Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo Spessa et al., in preparation

13. Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo Annual C Emissions from peat fires Spessa et al., in preparation Hirano et al., in preparation

14. Northern Hemisphere Forest Sinks - Disturbances Goodale et al. 2002 Pg C yr -1

15. Canadian Forest Net Carbon Uptake Disturbed Area (M ha) Variable TempConstant Temp - 200 - 100 0 100 200 300 400 1920194019601980 2000 Land Uptake (Tg C /yr -1) Kurz & Apps 1999

16. Angert et al. 2005; Dai et al. 2005 Climate Variability Effects on the C Sink

17. The largest productivity crash of the past 100 years Ciais et al. 2005, Peylin et al., unpublished 2003 Heat Wave in Europe 30% Reduction of GPP 0.5PgCNet source of CO 2 4yearsEquivalent C sink Model NPP gCm -2 mo CO 2 Anomaly

18. Annual Mean CO 2 at Cap Grim (Tasmania) 2005 Global Average: 279 ppm Paul Fraser, unpublished dioxide (CO 2 ) 0.54 %/yr Bern ref. model La Nina Pinotubo El Nino Drought CO 2 concentration (ppm) Growth Rate (ppm yr -1 ) La Nina growth rate increased by 70% over last 30 years

19. Revised Global Carbon Budget 1980-2005 1980’s 1990’s 2000-2005 Atmospheric Increase 3.3±0.1 3.2±0.1 4.1±0.1 Emissions (FF) 5.4±0.3 6.4±0.3 7.0±0.3 Net Ocean-Atmosph. Flux-1.8±0.8-2.2±0.4-2.2±0.5 Net Land-Atmosph. Flux-0.3±0.9-1.0±0.5-0.7±0.5 Land Use Change 1.3 1.6 NA Residual Land Sink-1.6-2.6 NA (-3.8 to 0.3) (-4.3 to 1.0) GCP, IPCC in preparation

20. 10 Carbon Coupled GCMs – C 4 MIP Cramer et al. 2001, IPCC TAR 2001, Friedlingstein et al. 2006, in press 6 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models Land Uptake (Pg C yr -1 21 st Century Projections of Terrestrial C Uptake

21. Will changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly drought characteristics (intensity, frequency, long- term trends) weaken the terrestrial C sink? Scope of the Workshop What are the consequences of the perturbation of the carbon-water system for regional and global management?

22. Theme 1: Observations Climate and Vegetation Theme 2: Processes and Controls of the Coupled Carbon-Water System Theme 3: Modeling Carbon-Water Interactions Theme 4: Vulnerability of Ecosystems Services Workshop Themes

23. Outcomes Current evidence and understanding of impacts of drought on the strength of the terrestrial C sink and their underlaying drivers. Implications for global and regional management of the carbon-water system. Identification of key research areas to advance in this field.

24. Products 1.A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on the drought-C sink issue. –Short ms. for EOS, Science, Nature, others, … 2.A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on management of the carbon-water system. –Ecological Applications, others, … 3.Special Feature or Special Issue if enough interest exist. –Rapid Web Based Journals Biogeoscience (EGU, AGU) Carbon Balance and Management –Global Change Biology –Ecological Applications –Climatic Change –Others

25. 20 minute talks 10 minute for questions 1 hour after each theme Wednesday afternoon 4 hours – products and ms. outlines Thursday morning Overlap with a National Workshop Thursday afternoon to Friday National Workshop Thursday afternoon Trip to Namagi Structure of the Workshop

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