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Money Matters Shaun van den Berg 30 August 2011
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Top - Down Approach ` International MarketsInternational Markets Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators CurrenciesCurrencies Precious MetalsPrecious Metals Local MarketLocal Market Main IndicesMain Indices Specific SectorsSpecific Sectors Specific SharesSpecific Shares
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Market Summary
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International Outlook Brent Crude Oil Gold-$ & Platinum-$ Silver $ & Copper US$ versus Euro & GBP JPY versus US$ DJ Industrial Average S & P 500 Index Nikkei Index Hang Seng Index DAX Index CAC 40 Index FTSE Index Local Outlook Gold Rand Platinum Rand Rand vs US $ & Euro JSE Overall Index Top 40 Index Mid Cap & Small Cap Index Alt-X Index Gold & Platinum Mining Index Resource 20 Index Financial 15 Index Industrial 25 Index Summary Conclusion Technical Market Overview
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Economic Indicators Brent Crude Oil Gold-$ Platinum-$ US$ versus Euro US$ versus GBP JPY versus US$
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Brent Crude Oil Bullish
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Gold-$ Support Support Resistance Resistance Bullish Bullish Support
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Platinum-$ Support Support Resistance Resistance Bullish Bullish
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Silver-$ Bullish Bullish Resistance Support Support Resistance Support
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Copper-$ Bearish Bearish Resistance Support Support Support Support Resistance
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US$ vs Euro $ Weakness / Euro Strength $ Strength / Euro Weakness Support Resistance US$ weakness US$ weakness Resistance
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US$ vs GBP $ Strength / GBP Weakness $ Weakness / GBP Strength Resistance Support Support US$ weakness US$ weakness
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JPY vs US$ JPY Weakness/ $ Strength JPY Strength / $ Weakness Resistance Resistance Support JPY Strength JPY Strength Resistance Resistance Support
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Bond Yield Curve What does Yield Curve mean? A line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity dates. The most frequently reported yield curve compares the three-month, two-year, five- year and 30-year U.S. Treasury debt. This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such as mortgage rates or bank lending rates. The curve is also used to predict changes in economic output and growth.
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Bond Yield Curve The shape of the yield curve is closely scrutinised because it helps to give an idea of future interest rate change and economic activity. There are three main types of yield curve shapes: normal, inverted and flat (or humped). –A normal yield curve (pictured above) is one in which longer maturity bonds have a higher yield compared to shorter-term bonds due to the risks associated with time. –An inverted yield curve is one in which the shorter-term yields are higher than the longer-term yields, which can be a sign of upcoming recession. –A flat (or humped) yield curve is one in which the shorter- and longer-term yields are very close to each other, which is also a predictor of an economic transition. The slope of the yield curve is also seen as important: the greater the slope, the greater the gap between short- and long-term rates.
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What can we learn? Brent Crude oil priceBrent Crude oil price –Bullish Precious MetalsPrecious Metals –Gold $: Bullish –Platinum-$: Bullish –Silver: Bullish –Copper: Bearish US DollarUS Dollar –Weakening –Testing support against the Euro Bullish US$ Weakness
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International Markets DJ Industrial Average S & P 500 Index Nikkei Index Hang Seng Index DAX Index CAC 40 Index FTSE Index
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DJ Industrial Average Bearish Bearish Support Support Resistance Resistance -16.3%
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Head & Shoulders? LS Head RS Neckline Target Price DJ Industrial Average (Monthly)
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S&P 500 Index Support Support Bearish Bearish Resistance Resistance -17.8%
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Nikkei Index Bearish Bearish Support Resistance Resistance -20.56%
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Hang Seng Index Resistance Resistance Bearish Bearish Support Support -22.29%
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DAX Index Resistance Resistance Support Support Support Bearish Bearish -27.02%
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CAC 40 Index Resistance Resistance Support Bearish Bearish Support -27.65%
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FTSE 100 Index Resistance Resistance Support Support Bearish Bearish Support -17.8%
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What can we learn? US MarketsUS Markets –DJIA: Bearish (-16.3%) –S&P 500: Bearish (-17.8%) Asian MarketsAsian Markets –Nikkei Index: Bearish (-20.56%) –Hang Seng Index: Bearish (-22.29%) European MarketsEuropean Markets –DAX Index: Bearish (27.02%) –CAC 40 Index: Bearish (-27.65%) –FT100 Index: Bearish (-17.8%) Bearish
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Local Market Gold Rand Platinum Rand Rand vs US $ Rand vs Euro Rand vs GBP JSE Overall Index Top 40 Index Mid Cap Index Small Cap Index Alt-X Index Gold Mining Index Platinum Mining Index Resource 20 Index Financial 15 Index Industrial 25 Index
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Gold Rand Support Support Bullish Bullish Resistance Resistance 68.24%
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NewGold (GLD) Support Support Bullish Bullish Resistance Resistance 67.68%
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Platinum Rand Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish Bullish Resistance Resistance
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Rand vs US $ Rand Strength / US$ Weakness Rand Weakness Rand Weakness/ US$ Strength Resistance Resistance Support Support
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Rand vs Euro Rand Strength / Euro Weakness Rand Weakness/ Euro Strength Rand Weakness Support Resistance Resistance Support Support 66% Retracement
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Rand vs GBP Rand Weakness/ GBP Strength Rand Strength/ GBP Weakness Support Resistance Resistance Support Rand Weakness
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What can we learn? Gold Rand: Bullish (Overbought) - NewGold ETF?Gold Rand: Bullish (Overbought) - NewGold ETF? Platinum Rand: Bullish (Overbought)Platinum Rand: Bullish (Overbought) Rand weakness vs USD vs EUR vs GBPRand weakness vs USD vs EUR vs GBP Rand Hedge Shares?Rand Hedge Shares? Opportunities?Opportunities?
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Market Indicators JSE Overall IndexJSE Overall Index Top 40 IndexTop 40 Index Mid CapMid Cap Small CapSmall Cap Alt-X IndexAlt-X Index Gold Mining IndexGold Mining Index Platinum MiningPlatinum Mining Resource 20 IndexResource 20 Index Financial 15 IndexFinancial 15 Index Industrial 25 IndexIndustrial 25 Index
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JSE Overall Index (Weekly) Support Resistance Resistance Bullish / Neutral Bullish / Neutral Support Support
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JSE Overall Index Support Resistance Resistance Support Support Bearish Bearish
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Top 40 Index Resistance Resistance Support Support Support Bearish Bearish
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Top 40 Index Bearish / Oversold / Market Performing
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Mid Cap Index Bearish / Oversold / Outperforming
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Small Cap Index Bearish / Oversold / Underperforming
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Fledgling Index Bearish / Oversold / Underperforming
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Alt-X Index Bullish / Oversold / Underperforming
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What can we learn? JSE Overall IndexJSE Overall Index –Bullish/ Neutral(W) –Bearish –Testing Resistance Top 40 IndexTop 40 Index –Bearish / Oversold –Market Performing Mid Cap IndexMid Cap Index –Bearish / Oversold –Market Outperform Small Cap IndexSmall Cap Index –Bearish / Oversold –Market Underperform Fledgling IndexFledgling Index –Bearish / Oversold –Underperforming Alt-X IndexAlt-X Index –Bullish / Oversold –Underperforming Bearish
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Market Indicators JSE Overall IndexJSE Overall Index Top 40 IndexTop 40 Index Mid CapMid Cap Small CapSmall Cap Alt-X IndexAlt-X Index Gold Mining IndexGold Mining Index Platinum MiningPlatinum Mining Resource 20 IndexResource 20 Index Financial 15 IndexFinancial 15 Index Industrial 25 IndexIndustrial 25 Index
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Gold Mining Index Bullish (Just!) / Overbought / Outperforming Bearish Divergence
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Gold Shares – Anglogold Watch Bullish (Just!) / Overbought / Underperforming
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Gold Shares – Harmony Watch Bullish / Oversold / Underperforming
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Gold Shares – Gold Fields Bullish / Overbought / Outperforming Watch
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Platinum Mining Index Bearish / Overbought / Underperforming Watch
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Platinum Shares –Amplats Bearish / Overbought / Market Performing Watch
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Platinum Shares – Implats Bearish / Overbought/ Outperforming Watch Closely
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Resources 20 Index Bearish/ Overbought / Underperforming Watch
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Resource Shares – Anglo Bearish/ Oversold / Underperforming Watch
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Resources – BHP Billiton Bearish/ Overbought / Market Performing Watch
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Resource Shares – Sasol Bearish/ Oversold / Market Performing 50% Retracement level Watch Closely
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Resource Shares – Exxaro Bullish/ Oversold / Outperforming Hold Test July’s High?
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Resource Shares – Kumba Bullish (Just!) / Oversold / Outperforming Watch Closely
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Summary – Mining & Resources Gold Mining IndexGold Mining Index –Bullish (Just!) –Overbought –Outperforming –Bearish Divergence Platinum MiningPlatinum Mining –Bearish –Oversold –Underperforming –Testing Resistance Resource 20 IndexResource 20 Index –Bearish –Overbought –Underperforming –Testing Resistance Harmony – Some more upside potential Implats – Breakout above Resistance? Sasol – Bouncing off Support Exxaro – Hold (Test July’s Highs?) Kumba – Testing Resistance/ Oversold
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Financial 15 Index Bearish/ Overbought/ Market Outperforming Watch Closely
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Bank Shares - ABSA Bullish (Just!) / Overbought/ Outperforming Watch Closely
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Bank Shares – Firstrand Watch Closely Bullish (Just!) / Overbought/ Outperforming
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Bank Shares – Stanbank Watch Closely Bearish/ Overbought / Market Underperform Down Channel
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Bank Shares – Nedbank Bullish/ Overbought / Outperforming Watch Closely
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Life Assurance - Sanlam Bearish / Overbought / Market Performing Watch
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Life Assurance– Old Mutual Bearish / Overbought / Underperforming
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Real Estate - Growthpoint Hold Bullish/ Overbought / Market Outperforming Testing Resistance?
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Real Estate - Redefine Hold Bullish/ Overbought / Outperforming Retest Resistance?
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Industrial 25 Index Bearish (Just!) / Overbought / Outperforming Retest Resistance?
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Industrial Shares – MTN Group Hold Bullish/ Overbought / Outperforming Retest Resistance?
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Industrial Shares – BATS Sell on Break Bullish/ Overbought / Outperforming Bearish Divergence
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Industrial Shares – SAB Miller Hold Bullish / Overbought / Outperforming
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Industrial Shares – Richemont Sell on Break Bearish/ Oversold / Underperforming
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Industrial Shares – Industrial Shares – Bidvest Sell on Break Bearish/ Oversold / Underperforming
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Summary – Financial & Industrial Financial 15 IndexFinancial 15 Index –Bearish –Overbought –Market Outperforming Banking SharesBanking Shares –Bullish –Overbought –Outperforming Life Assurance SharesLife Assurance Shares –Bearish –Overbought –Underperforming Real Estate SharesReal Estate Shares –Bullish –Overbought –Outperforming Industrial 25 IndexIndustrial 25 Index –Bearish –Overbought –Outperforming
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Summary – Financial & Industrial Banks –ABSA, Firstrand & Nedbank Bullish Testing resistance –Stanbank Bearish Breakout of Down Channel? Life Assurance –Old Mutual Breakout above resistance? Real Estate –Growthpoint & Redefine Retesting Resistance Industrials –MTN Group (Hold) Retesting Resistance –BATS (Sell on Breakout) Overbought Bearish Divergence –SAB Miller (Hold) New Highs –Richemont (Sell on Breakout) Testing Support level –Bidvest (Sell on Breakout) Testing Support Trend Line
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Callie’s Choice for this month
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Comment on Results
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Operational Overview
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Prospects & Recommendation
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Ciplamed (Weekly)
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Ciplamed Bearish/ Overbought / Market Performing
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Conclusion Simple Trend Analysis –Price Action –Support & Resistance –Overbought / Oversold & Relative Strength Money Matters presentation available soon! Next Meeting: Tuesday, 27 September 2011 Good Luck Happy Trading!
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Thank You shaunvdb@psgonline.co.za (011) 996 5200
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