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Modeled spatial and temporal distribution of Euphausia pacifica in the California Current from a coupled ocean circulation model and individual-based model.

Published byElijah Robertson Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Modeled spatial and temporal distribution of Euphausia pacifica in the California Current from a coupled ocean circulation model and individual-based model."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeled spatial and temporal distribution of Euphausia pacifica in the California Current from a coupled ocean circulation model and individual-based model Jeffrey G. Dorman 1, Thomas Powell 1, William Sydeman 2, Steven Bograd 3, Jarrod Santora 2 1 University of California, Berkeley - Berkeley, CA 2 Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research - Petaluma, CA 3 NOAA-NMFS, Environmental Research Division - Pacific Grove, CA

2 Roadmap Introduction to 2005 in the California Current Individual Based Model (POPCYCLE) ROMS Model for Central/Northern California 2001 vs 2005 Comparison of: –Spatial Distribution of Euphausia pacifica –Population Growth of Euphausia pacifica

3 California Current Upwelling Ecosystem

4 (Field JC et al., Prog Ocean, 2006 68:238-270) Euphausia pacifica in the California Current (Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)

5 Average Date of Spring Transition April 4th Year 2005 Spring Transition May 24th (Kosro PM et al., Geophys Res Letters, 2006 33:L22S03; doi:10.1029/2006GL027072) 2005 in the California Current: Delayed Upwelling

6 Cassin’s Auklet Delayed Upwelling: Increased Trophic Mismatch

7 Chinook Salmon Jack Escapement (Sacramento River) Delayed Upwelling: Increased Trophic Mismatch

8 Why an Individual Based Model? SummerWinter AdvectionGrazing Mortality Euphausia pacifica Length (mm) # of E. pacifica

9 Get Individual Physical Data Get Domain Physical Data Reseed Population Begin Population Loop Calculate Growth Assign Life Stage Adult Female? Reproduce? Calculate Reproductive Weight All Individuals Evaluated? yes no Next Individual no Update Position Update Population and Output Population Stats End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program no Mortality new individuals via eggs yes or no yes Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica

10 Get Individual Physical Data Get Domain Physical Data Reseed Population Begin Population Loop Calculate Growth Assign Life Stage Adult Female? Reproduce? Calculate Reproductive Weight All Individuals Evaluated? yes no Next Individual no Update Position Update Population and Output Population Stats End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program no Mortality new individuals via eggs yes or no yes Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica Get ROMS Data Bioenergetics Particle Tracking Output Data

11 U-velocity, V-velocity, W-velocity Temperature, Salinity, Phytoplankton POPCYCLE Model Time Saved ROMS Data Time 2 Saved ROMS Data Time 1 POPCYCLE – Get ROMS Data ρ,u,ν

12 POPCYCLE - Bioenergetics Egg Development Temperature Dependent Growth Food Dependent Reproduction Life Stage Dependent Food & Time Dependent Stage Progression Weight Dependent Mortality Predation Starvation Ohman MD 1984

13 POPCYCLE – Particle Tracking 4 th Order Runge-Kutta Methods Diel Vertical Migration Cue To Migrate = Light Difference (Isolume Tracking) Swim Speed = Maximum Swim Speed * Scale Factors Scale Factors (range from 0 –1) include Light, Size, Hunger, Life Stage, Food, Position Weight (ug C)Food Concentration (ug C) Scale Factor 0 1

14 POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATS Differences Temporal Interpolation Run Offline No Interpolation Run Real-Time POPCYCLEROMS FLOATS POPCYCLE FLOATS 30 Day Particle TracksDay 30 Final Position POPCYCLE FLOATS

15 POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATS Differences Temporal Interpolation Run Offline Variable Population Size Stage Structured Population Home-Grown Code No Interpolation Run Real-Time Static Population Size Single Stage Population Community Support POPCYCLEROMS FLOATS

16 ROMS N-P-Z-D Model Individual Based Model Phytoplankton Water Velocity, Diffusivity Temp, Salinity

17 Regional Ocean Modeling System Coos Bay, OR Cape Mendocino, CA West Longitude North Latitude West Longitude Depth (m) Forcing from NCEP-NARR (3 hr) BULK_FLUXES, EMINUSP, LONGWAVE_OUT, Analytical ATM Pressure Boundary from ECCO (3 day) FSCHAPMAN, M2FLATHER M3RADIATION, TRADIATION Nudge (in) = 5 d Model Spun-up for 1 year NPZD Model Daily Averaged Output Saved

18 2005 ROMS Satellite Comparison Temperature Offshore Onshore Satellite ROMS Satellite ROMS Temperature

19 2005 ROMS Satellite Comparison Chlorophyll a Offshore Onshore Satellite ROMS Satellite ROMS Chlorophyll a

20 IBM - Initial Seeding Locations POPCYCLE Model Options 1000 Particles Released per Site Initialized on January 5, 2001 & 2005 Model Run for 200 days Initial Particle Weight = 40 μg C (i.e. small furcilia larvae) Starvation No Predation No Reproduction Coos Bay Mendocino Bodega Pescadero Pt. Sur West Longitude North Latitude

21 2001 2005 Spatial Variability - Bodega Release West Longitude North Latitude Particle Weight (μg C) C. Mendocino

22 Alongshore Currents 2001 2005 Latitude Year Day

23 Median Particle Position Blue = 2001 Red = 2005 Bodega Mendocino Pescadero West Longitude North Latitude Release Location January 5 Median Location March 21

24 Mean Particle Weight (+/- 1 std.) MendocinoBodegaPescadero Year Day Blue = 2001 Red = 2005 Particle Weight (μg C)

25 Additional Seeding Locations Coos Bay Mendocino Bodega Pescadero Pt. Sur West Longitude North Latitude Coos Bay Mendocino Bodega Pescadero Pt. Sur West Longitude North Latitude

26 Year Day Latitude Particle Density 2001 2005

27 Year Day Latitude Particle Mean Weight 2001 2005

28 Conclusions Increased Northerly Transport out of Central California during Winter 2005 (Compared to Winter 2001) Greater Starvation in Central California during 2005 Decrease in Spring Particle Weight in 2005 (Compared to 2001) (Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)

29 Acknowledgements Funding and Support California SeaGrant & Ocean Protection Council (Project No. OPC-ENV-07) NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) California Energy Commission: Public Interest Energy Research – Biological Impacts of Climate Change in California (BICCCA) Model Development Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Developers & Community Hal Batchelder, Oregon State University Data Sources National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI)

30 Spatial Variability - Bodega Release North Latitude West Longitude Particle Weight (μg C) C. Mendocino

31 Spatial Variability - Bodega Release Particle Weight (μg C) C. Mendocino North Latitude West Longitude

32 Bodega Release Particle Weight (μg C) 2001 2002 2006 2003 2004 2007 2005 Median Particle Position – Jan. 5 through Mar. 21 West Longitude North Latitude Year Day Mean Particle Weight

33 POPCYCLE vs ROMS FLOATS Particle Tracking in Popcycle DVM in POPCYCLE Linked List (Mortality and Reproduction)

34 MBARI M2 Mooring – Temperature (deg C) ROMS at M2 Location – Temperature (deg C) Year Day Depth (m)

35 Individual Based Models ROMS – FLOATS LTRANS – offline POPCYCLE - offline BOLTS

36 ROMS Verification Satellite Temperature Annual Mean Temperature 2005 ROMS Data 2005 MODISA Satellite Data Annual Mean Chlorophyll a

37 Get Individual Physical Data Get Domain Physical Data Reseed Population Begin Population Loop Calculate Growth Assign Life Stage Adult Female? Reproduce? Calculate Reproductive Weight All Individuals Evaluated? yes no Next Individual no Update Position Update Population and Output Population Stats End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program no Mortality new individuals via eggs yes or no yes Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica

38 2004 2005 2006

39 Cumulative Chlorophyll a Blue = 2001 Red = 2005

40 POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATS Differences

41 (Kosro PM et al., Geophys Res Letters, 2006 33:L22S03; doi:10.1029/2006GL027072)

42 Spatial Variability - Bodega Release North Latitude West Longitude Particle Weight (μg C) C. Mendocino

43 Year Day Latitude Total Weight 2001 2005

44 POPCYCLE- Output Particle Update NetCDF File General InfoBioenergeticsPosition Particle IDWeight z-position (meters) Most Recent FoodHunger Factorx-position (meters) Most Recent Temp.Stagey-position (meters) Most Recent SalinityTime of Last Reproductionx-position (grid-units) Grounded FlagTime of Last Molty-position (grid-units) Bounded Flag Reproductive Weightz-position (grid-units Longitude Latitude Particle Record NetCDF FileOther ASCII Files Particle IDStage-structured summary at each time-step SexSurvivors File Time of Birth/DeathPredation File Cause of DeathStarvation File Parent ID

45 Year Day 90Year Day 180 Difference in Cumulative Chlorophyll a 2005 - 2001 West Longitude North Latitude West Longitude C. Mendocino

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