Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Climate implications for Agricultural Production within the Murray Valley of NSW Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture

Published byAmbrose Johnston Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Climate implications for Agricultural Production within the Murray Valley of NSW Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture"— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate implications for Agricultural Production within the Murray Valley of NSW Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture michael.cashen@industry.nsw.gov.au John Smith – District Agronomist, Barham john.smith@industry.nsw.gov.au

2 So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

3 The three P’s of climate change Peripheral Policy Physical

4 Policy responses- Climate Change  Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) and Carbon Tax.  Water policy review (MDBA- draft basin plan)  Exceptional circumstance policy review

5 Peripheral responses-Climate Change Niche marketing and preferential buying  Food miles  Carbon footprint (life cycle analysis)  Carbon neutral Our focus today- Physical (science and biophysical impacts on Ag)

6 So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

7 Rainfall in Deniliquin (1889-2009) Data source: SILO Data Drill Iconic droughts 1900-1909, 1936-45 and 1997-2009

8 Seasonal analysis rainfall (1889-2009) Data source: SILO Data Drill

9 Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin Data source: SILO Data Drill

10 Murray Darling Basin- temperatures

11 Murray Darling Basin- annual rainfall Iconic droughts 1900-1909, 1936-45 and 1997-2009

12 MDB- Winter and Spring rainfall Data source: BoM Drivers of winter/spring variability ENSO/IOD Ummenhofer et al 2010

13 4 Sites Seasonal rainfall trends

14 Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin Data source: SILO Data Drill

15 Impact on Deniliquin Source: S Gannon Westpac 2010 83%

16 So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

17

18 The Subtropical Ridge

19 STR Changes and temperature

20 STR Impacts

21 Quantifying uncertainty

22 So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

23 Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season Stored soil moisture 61-90 = 69.2mm Stored soil moisture 91-08 = 40.7mm (-28.5mm)

24 Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season GCM predictions

25 Implications for reduced water  Changes in water priorities –Less water available when decisions need to be made Winter crops for yield potential Calculated risk on water availability for rice

26 Implications for industry – rice (Gaydon et al., 2010)  Declines in irrigation water supply -ve impact  Potential increases in water demand (?) - increased ET but quicker growth  Low-temperature damage may be reduced (?)  Significant improvements in water productivity difficult under existing systems – less water = less rice

27 Rice farming system changes  Adaptation –Drill sowing - Farm layouts –Aerobic rice - New Varieties –AWD- Irrigation methods

28 Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)  Enhanced growth with elevated CO 2 –Increased photosynthetic rates and WUE  Reduced frost risk  Accelerated plant development with increased temp. –Reduced yield without variety adaptation –More rapid depletion of soil moisture  Rainfall is a key determinant of yield – considerable risk of lower rainfall = lower yield

29 Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)  Pests and disease - variable but for us –Stripe rust increase with milder winter temps, quicker life cycle –Viral Diseases (Barley Yellow Dwarf) increase with warmer winter temps, more aphid activity –Take all decrease, favoured by wet soil conditions

30 Take home message -Temps are up -Autumn rainfall down -STR intensification driving autumn decline (temp) -GCM uncertainty around autumn (under estimate?) -Impacting on water availability -Less water less production

31 So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

32 Future implications for farms  Scale (Diversification)  Return on water and land asset base (Review)  Equity level (Key to survival)  Flexible systems (annual –turn on or off)

33 References Gaydon DS, Beecher HG, Reinke R, Crimp S and Howden SM (2010) ‘Rice’. In Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing Howden SM, Gifford RG and Meinke H (2010) ‘Grains’. In Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing Timbal B (2010) ‘Understanding the anthropogenic nature of observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report No. 026 Ummenhofer CC, Alexander SG, Briggs PR, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach MR, Risbey JS (2010). Indian and Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil Moisture. Journal of Climate. Published on line in (http://journals.ametsoc.org) DOI 10.1175/2010JCLI3475.1http://journals.ametsoc.org

34 Additional slides

35 El Nino Southern Oscillation Image source: Bureau of Meteorology

36 Indian Ocean Dipole Image source: www.oceansatlas.org

37 The years of ENSO/IOD (Ummenhofer et al 2010)

38 Impact of ENSO/IOD events MDB Figures inside brackets indicated number of events (1900-2006) Note: variation in impact between case study sites

39 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/technical_report.php

Download ppt "Climate implications for Agricultural Production within the Murray Valley of NSW Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture"

Similar presentations

Water and Climate Change in Africa Raffaello Cervigni The World Bank.

Water and Climate Change in Africa Raffaello Cervigni The World Bank.
Click to edit Master title style Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry.

Click to edit Master title style Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry.
Climate drivers. Major climate drivers INDIAN OCEAN sea surface temperatures PACIFIC OCEAN sea surface temperatures SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE – north-south.

Climate drivers. Major climate drivers INDIAN OCEAN sea surface temperatures PACIFIC OCEAN sea surface temperatures SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE – north-south.
1 The Australian Dry of 2007: causes and outlooks FEEDGRAIN PARTNERSHIP DROUGHT SUMMIT October 30, 2007 Dr. Andrew Watkins (Senior Climatologist) Dr. David.

1 The Australian Dry of 2007: causes and outlooks FEEDGRAIN PARTNERSHIP DROUGHT SUMMIT October 30, 2007 Dr. Andrew Watkins (Senior Climatologist) Dr. David.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agriculture Daniel J. Archambault Research Scientist Alberta Research Council February 25 th,2003.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agriculture Daniel J. Archambault Research Scientist Alberta Research Council February 25 th,2003.
The atmosphere is warming. Source: IPCC AR4 Where does the excess heat go?

The atmosphere is warming. Source: IPCC AR4 Where does the excess heat go?
Climate Smart Agriculture East Africa Regional Knowledge Sharing Meeting Thomas Cole June 11, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Climate Smart Agriculture East Africa Regional Knowledge Sharing Meeting Thomas Cole June 11, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Univ. of Alberta Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture R.F. Grant Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton,Alberta.

Univ. of Alberta Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture R.F. Grant Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton,Alberta.
Priorities of Soil Management for Extreme Events and Drought Charles W. Rice University Distinguished Professor Soil Microbiology Department of Agronomy.

Priorities of Soil Management for Extreme Events and Drought Charles W. Rice University Distinguished Professor Soil Microbiology Department of Agronomy.
The tradeoffs between water savings and GHG emissions in irrigated agriculture Shahbaz Mushtaq, Tek Maraseni, and Kate Reardon Smith Australian Centre.

The tradeoffs between water savings and GHG emissions in irrigated agriculture Shahbaz Mushtaq, Tek Maraseni, and Kate Reardon Smith Australian Centre.
Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates.

Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates.
A Layman’s View of Carbon Reduction Policies. Overview History of climate change policy debate Projected impacts Australian Government’s response Opposition.

A Layman’s View of Carbon Reduction Policies. Overview History of climate change policy debate Projected impacts Australian Government’s response Opposition.
1 Assiniboine River Water Demand and Water Supply Studies Prepared by : Bob Harrison, P. Eng. and Abul Kashem, P. Eng. Surface Water Management Section.

1 Assiniboine River Water Demand and Water Supply Studies Prepared by : Bob Harrison, P. Eng. and Abul Kashem, P. Eng. Surface Water Management Section.
Water availability, drought and climate change in the MDB: a hydrological perspective Mac Kirby MDB Water Policy Workshop, Brisbane 21 October 2010.

Water availability, drought and climate change in the MDB: a hydrological perspective Mac Kirby MDB Water Policy Workshop, Brisbane 21 October 2010.
Expansion of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell linked to reductions in water availability over south-eastern Australia Dr David Post CSIRO Australia.

Expansion of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell linked to reductions in water availability over south-eastern Australia Dr David Post CSIRO Australia.
Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources.

Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources.
Climate Change D McRae 14 October 09. Climate forum Our climate is always changing and is influenced by both natural variability and human induced changes.

Climate Change D McRae 14 October 09. Climate forum Our climate is always changing and is influenced by both natural variability and human induced changes.
Rye Grass Ag Education II Rye Grass What do you know about rye grass? How many kinds of rye grass are there? Where is it grown? Why is rye grass important?

Rye Grass Ag Education II Rye Grass What do you know about rye grass? How many kinds of rye grass are there? Where is it grown? Why is rye grass important?
Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University.

Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University.
(b)Impact on fresh water resources 1. Change in precipitation – Increase flooding – Increase in northern high latitude during the winter, and south-east.

(b)Impact on fresh water resources 1. Change in precipitation – Increase flooding – Increase in northern high latitude during the winter, and south-east.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google