1. Scenario building Creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures

2. Scenarios  Narratives (stories) that express what your information institution might look like in the future  Used in planning for the future  Create various narratives to express various possibilities  Narratives should include you as an actor—what will your role be

3. Scenario building considerations  What are the givens?  Hawai‘i will continue to have children that need an education  Old, deteriorating buildings will continue to need work  What are the uncertainties?  Change to smaller school boards?  Larger or smaller student population?  “Education governor” who budgets adequate funds for education? A legislature that releases those funds?

4. The Steps  Divide into groups  Discuss the environmental forces at work that will influence the future  Discuss possible futures  Create 2 or 3 scenarios  Share at least one of your stories with the rest of the class

5. Step One: Organizing Divide into groups according to information institution type:  Public library  Academic library  School library  Archive  Special (including knowledge management officer for corporation)

6. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Social forces  Changing demographics  Will population of Hawai`i continue to grow?  What about the school-age population?  Ethnic and linguistic diversity

7. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Technology  Information retrieval software  Virtual reference  Provide more resources electronically  e-Books

8. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Economics  Downward or upward economy (U.S. and local)  What would that mean in terms of funding for your institution?  If government funding drops are there other resources available?

9. Step Two: Discuss forces at work - Politics  Laws relating to libraries  Political instability  Political support for libraries and other information institutions  Concern for national security

10. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Physical Environment  Cost of paper affected by growing pressure to restrict logging practices  Global warming

11. Step Three: Discuss possible futures  What will my library or other information institution look like ten years from now?  What will my role be in that library?

12. Step Four: Create 2 or 3 scenarios  Pool knowledge of group  Effect of varied directions for factors examined  Include worst-case scenario  Be sure to include yourselves in your narratives—What will you be doing in this story?

13. Step Five: Share a scenario with the class  What type of information institution are you looking at?  What might happen in the socio- economic and political spheres that might produce your scenario?  What will your institution look like?  What will your role be?

14. Planning for the future  Don't bet future on single scenario  Make decisions that will be sound for a variety of plausible futures  How will we influence our stories?