1. 10/1/02007David Downie1 Global Policy to protect Stratospheric Ozone David Leonard Downie Columbia University Guest Speaker V 1003: Science & Society – Fall 2007

2. 10/1/02007David Downie2 Ozone Hole Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion 1979 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1997 1999 2004

3. 10/1/02007David Downie3 Global Ozone Policy - Why Care? 1.Very Important Issue - Ozone in stratosphere helps shield earth from UV radiation. 2.Very Difficult Problem to Solve - ozone- depleting substances (ODS) were considered essential to modern life and potentially impossible to replace. ODS include: CFCs, Halons, Methyl Bromide, HCFCs, MC, CTC, Bromochloromethane (BCM)

4. 10/1/02007David Downie4 Global Ozone Policy - Why Care? 3. A Successful and Influential Example Global membership. Strong set of binding rules (international law). 1985 Vienna Convention 1987 Montreal Protocol Amendments and Adjustments to the Protocol (1990 London Amendment, 1992 Copenhagen, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007). Decisions by MOPs.

5. 10/1/02007David Downie5 Successful Example – So Far Robust Set of Component Institutions Regime Principles, Norms, Rules, & Procedures Multilateral Fund GEF Assessment Panels (Science; Environmental Effects; Technology and Economic Assessment) Non-compliance procedures (Implementation Committee) Implementing Agencies (UNEP, World Bank, UNDP, UNIDO) Elements incorporated into future treaties (and intentionally not-incorporated)

6. 10/1/02007David Downie6 Successful Example – So Far Effective International Policy Production and consumption of almost all ODS (CFCs, etc.) declining on global scale. Atmospheric concentrations of most ODS stabilized or dropping. Stratospheric concentrations of Cl and Br dropping. Production and Consumption of CFCs and several other ODS nearly eliminated in OECD countries, as required. Developing countries largely met CFC freeze in 2000 and meeting or expected to reductions. Positive Impact on Climate Change (CFCs about 1000 times GWP as CO2; Ozone Regime responsible for eliminating equivalent of about 10-20 years of CO2 emissions).

7. 10/1/02007David Downie7 Key Causal Factors Shaping the Development of International Ozone Layer Policy 1.Advancing Scientific and Technical Knowledge (information and consensus) 2.Economic Interests (changing patterns; regime influence interests) 3.Existing Institutions / Regime / Policy Structure – international institutions and regime/policy design matters These groups of meta-factors create `structures’ that influence outcomes.

8. 10/1/02007David Downie8 1. Advancing Scientific and Technical Knowledge/Information “Framed” the Debate - “Constrained” Actors Influenced Epistemic Community Development Influenced Public Opinion Formal/Acknowledged Role in Treaty - Basis for Treaty Expansion Sln K provided confidence – allowed for rapid innovation

9. 10/1/02007David Downie9 2. Economic Interests “Traditional” Retarding Impact Shaped National Proposals for International Regulations Regulation Produced Innovation International Regulation ‘Re-Cartelized’ ODS Production – allowed for rapid policy expansion Multilateral Fund Worked – economically and politically Effective Incentives in USA – excise tax.

10. 10/1/02007David Downie10 3. International Institutions and Extant Regime / Policy Structure Int. Institutions provided foundation, basis & opportunity to initiate, sustain and build policy. Pre-emptive (at least originally) Control Measures - Clear, Strong, Simple, Binding, Total Phase-Out Goal, Differentiated Responsibilities Ability to Grow in Response to New Information Requirement to consider action; Information to base decision (Assessment Panels); Ability to make decisions; Rapid implementation of decisions possible (Amendment and Adjustments, Decisions of Parties, MF)

11. 10/1/02007David Downie11 3. International Institutions and Extant Regime / Policy Structure Financial Mechanism - Multilateral Fund (hugely imp political deal; membership carrot; economic interests; adjustment costs). Trade Sanctions (membership stick) Non-Compliance Procedures UNEP as designated regime organization

12. 10/1/02007David Downie12 Ozone Regime 1930s CFCs are invented 1974 CFC – Ozone Theory Published 1977 – 1978 First International Meetings 1977 – 1981 Domestic Controls: U.S.A., Canada, Nordic Countries, European Community 1979 Margaret Thatcher Elected 1980 Ronald Reagan Elected

13. 10/1/02007David Downie13 Ozone Regime 1982 Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee formed. 1983 “Toronto Group” Proposal. 1985 Ozone Hole Discovery published. 1985 Vienna Convention. Framework treaty. No controls. No mention of CFCs.

14. 10/1/02007David Downie14 Ozone Regime 1987 Montreal Protocol. Centerpiece of the regime. 50% cuts on 5 CFCs and 3 Halons by 2000. 10-year grace party for developing countries (Article 5). Assessment panels. Amendment and adjustment procedures.

15. 10/1/02007David Downie15 Ozone Regime 1990 London Amendment and Adjustments. 100% cut on 15 CFCs, Halons, CT, MC by 2000 from 1986 levels. 1992 Copenhagen Amendment and Adjustments. 100% cut on 15 CFCs, Halons, CT, MC by 1996 from 1986 levels. HCFCs and Methyl Bromide added.

16. 10/1/02007David Downie16 Ozone Regime 1995Vienna Amendment and Adjustments. HCFCs consumption controls increased. Grace period – informally adjusted/expanded for developing countries. 1997Montreal Amendment and Adjustments. Methyl Bromide to be phased out by 2005 – with loophole retained. 1999 Beijing Amendment and Adjustments. HCFC production controls; restrictions on HCFC trade with non-Parties; production and consumption controls for new group of substances, Bromochloromethane (BCM)

17. 10/1/02007David Downie17 Since 1999 Efforts to increase controls MB (USA opposition at times). Efforts to speed controls on HCFCs. Enhances focus on FTA in particular areas to ensure full compliance by developing countries.

18. 10/1/02007David Downie18 Ozone Regime 2007 Montreal Adjustment: 191 Parties to the Montreal Protocol reached a historic agreement late Friday night, September 21, 2007 to strengthen the ozone treaty by speeding up by ten years the phase-out of HCFCs. The agreement will advance the recovery of the ozone layer by several years and, because HCFCs are GHGs, reduce GHG emissions by up to 25 billion tons of CO2 equivalent—five times more than the Kyoto Protocol will do during its initial reduction period from 2008 to 2012. As part of the agreement, developed country Parties promised to continue paying into Multilateral Fund.

19. 10/1/02007David Downie19 2007 Montreal Adjustment: Developed Country Parties: Baseline: 1989 levels (plus 2.8% of 1989 CFC levels). 75% reduction on 1 Jan 2010 (up from 65%) 90% on 1 Jan 2015 Continuing use of 0.5% from 2020 to 2030 Developing Country Parties: (old schedule – 2016 freeze at 2015 level and 100% cut in 2040) Base level 2009-2010 average (incentive?) Freeze on 1 Jan 2013 10% reduction on 1 Jan 2015 35% on 1 Jan 2020 67.5% on 1 Jan 2025 Continuing use of 2.5% from 2030 to 2040

20. 10/1/02007David Downie20 Future Success? New Scientific Challenges New ODS? Relation to climate change. CFCs and HCFCs in developing countries – will complete phase-outs really occur. Methyl bromide – exemptions. Enough time?

21. 10/1/02007David Downie21 Thank you Questions: 212-854-5725 dd113@columbia.edu