1. FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee December 5, 2011

2. FY12 Caseload Overview Late Billing: Part of EEC’s monthly projections is to report late billing. The Fiscal Year 2012 late billing to date is approximately $2.4M. In comparison, July 2010 thru October 2010 (FY11) was $4.5M. Historical trends have been incorporated into the forecast. As actual numbers are incorporated, the forecasted deficit decreases. The total FY11 late billing accumulated total was $12.2M. If the late billing trend for FY12 continues, the realized savings will initially offset the deficit in contracts, which was caused by Contract/Flex spending over maximum obligation. Income Eligible: The deficiency in Income Eligible account has decreased to $1M. Caseload continues to decrease with access closed driving the change in the projections. Voucher access remains closed; savings is offset by Contract/Flex Spending. Current projections anticipate Contract/Flex spending to be approximately $2.5M over maximum obligation. DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted surplus has decreased from $4.0M to $3.4M. The change in the projected surplus is driven by a 3% increase in caseload. It includes approximately $2M for the DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (The anticipated full year cost of this is $4M.) DTA anticipates the policy will be fully implemented by November but impact to spending may not occur until January 2012. FY11 caseload on average was 16,377 children; EEC expended $133.7M in FY11. Supportive: After processing four months of actual expenditures, a surplus of $3.8M is projected. The increase in surplus is driven by a decrease in caseload by approximately 6%. Discussions with DCF indicate there will be an effort to fill the open slots which will result in the current surplus being reduced. Original projected budgeted caseload is based on a 3 year historical caseload trend for service months. 2

3. FY12 Caseload Overview Summary As of November 2011 3

4. 4 FY 2012 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

5. Data source: Data extract 11/23/2011 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example, unbilled billing report with the service month of August 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since June 2011.

6. FY12 Voucher Late Billing There are 6,122 billing records ($2.1M) associated with late billing for the billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services There are 1,402 providers who have submitted late billing. Of the 6,122 billing records, 4,887 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is billed for the first time relative to their current placement. The billing records make up the majority of the $2.1M in expenses. The balance (1235) of the billing records represents a net dollar impact of approximately $6K. Of the 1235 billing records that are not related to first time billing, 932 of them are over one month late, 254 are two months late, and 49 are three months late. 6 Total Funding SourceBilling Records Dollars ARRA 68 $ 28,647 DSS 21 $ 5,921 DTA 2,500 $ 971,224 Income Eligible 3,533 $ 1,098,032 Grand Total 6,122 $ 2,103,824

7. 7 Data source: Data extract 11/23/2011 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of August 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since June 2011.

8. FY12 Contract Late Billing There are 702 billing records ($212.7K) associated with late billing for billing months August for July services, September for August services, and October for September services. There are 265 Contract providers who have submitted late billing. Of the 702 billing records, 274 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is being billed for the first time relative to their current placement. These billing records make up the majority of the $161.6K in expenses. The balance of the billing records (428) represent a dollar impact of approximately $51K. Of the 428 that are not related to first time billing, 368 of the billing records are one month late, 46 are two months, and 14 are three months late. Of the first time billed records (274), 239 were billed late by one month, 28 by two months and 7 by three months. 8 Total Funding SourceBilling Records Dollars ARRA23 $ 7,686 DSS517 $ 120,599 DTA128 $ 50,772 Income Eligible34 $ 33,658 Grand Total702 $ 212,716

9. 9 FY 2012 DTA Related (3000-4050)

10. 10 FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

11. FY2012 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures 11 ( Amount in Thousands ) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

12. 12 (Amount in Thousands) FY2012 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures Total Appropriation of $232.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants October 2011 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,398,983.20. Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

13. FY2012 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures 13 ( Amount in Thousands ) Total Appropriation is $ 77.447 includes $600K for Grants not reported in chart. Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

14. FY12 Income Eligible Contract Slots Overview As of November 29, 2011 there are 14,459 awarded slots. Of the total awarded slots there is a net 1,429.50 open contracted slots. Two hundred and eight slots were filled in November. The total allowable flex is 856 slots; 623.5 slots are filled. The number of flex slots filled decreased by 16.5. Currently there are 36 providers whose flex slots are over 5% by 473 slots (awarded 77, used 550). Providers under 5% have 705.5 flex slots not filled (awarded 724, used 19). EEC currently has 175 contracted vendors; 151 (86%) of them have open contracted slots. There are 474 contracts, 152 (32%) of the contracts have open contracted slots. Note that in the chart below the standard deviation of 59.2282 for the Head Start Partner Before & After Program is skewed because one program has 287 awarded slots, but 143 of them are open. 14 Standard Deviation by Program Type Nov. 29, 2011Nov. 01, 2011 CENTER BASED INFANT1.20671.3006 CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER3.51784.2060 CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL7.19779.4735 CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE4.95835.9201 CENTER BASED TODDLER2.64133.5202 CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL FAMILY CHILD CARE < 210.746311.0580 FAMILY CHILD CARE > 210.78352.5171 HEAD START PARTNER B&A37.8882*59.2282 Median by Program Type Nov. 29, 2011Nov. 01, 2011 CENTER BASED INFANT1.0 CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER0.01.0 CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL3.04.0 CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE1.04.0 CENTER BASED TODDLER0.51.75 CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL0.5.5 FAMILY CHILD CARE < 26.811.0 FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2-3.04.0 HEAD START PARTNER B&A0.03.0

15. FY2012 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex 15 Total Awarded Slots is 14459 and Allowable Flex Slots is 856 36 Providers representing 48 contracts are Over 5% Flex (473) **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

16. Addendum: Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2010 16 *Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait.