1. 1 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation 1 st Annual Workshop – NAS-Wide Simulation in Support of NextGen Dec. 10th – George Mason University “System Wide Modeling in Fast-time Simulation” Current and Future Capabilities FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative R&D Action Plan 9

2. 2 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Research Objective Approach Scope Findings Questionnaire Sections Existing Capabilities Gaps in Capabilities Conclusions Needs Industry Participation Integration Issues

3. 3 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation INTRODUCTION Action Plan 9 (AP9) – Air Traffic Modeling of Operational Concepts Research Objectives: Determine modeling capabilities of existing system wide tools Determine the availability of capabilities required for future system wide concepts Approach: TIM: Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006 Interviews with model developers and subject matter experts Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject matter experts 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools Document the research and the conclusions

4. 4 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation SCOPE System wide is equivalent to: ­ Runway-to Runway operations (US) ­ Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe) Focus - System operations as opposed to economic, financial or political attributes of the ATM system, and - System wide modeling capabilities that ­ Capture propagation of a problem throughout the system ­ Support modeling of future operations, technologies and concepts.

5. 5 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation INTERVIEW: QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS General Modeling Information Airspace Flight Schedule & Trajectories Separation – Tactical Control Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Airports Aircraft Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) Environment Infrastructure Human Performance Software – Architecture and Programming

6. 6 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES General Modeling Information Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based, and analytical tools Stochastic processes or working toward stochastic elements Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus - Airspace - Most considered sectors as resources others more detailed - Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP values Flight Schedules and Trajectories ­ Traffic defined by: ­ schedules ­ filed flight plans ­ as-flown trajectories ­ great circle routes ­ 4D trajectories: pre-processing vs. run-time adjustments ­ Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions

7. 7 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.) Separation – Tactical Control (varied in models) Conflict detection and resolution Capacity-demand imbalances Flight re-routing Traffic Flow Management: ­ Departure Time Management (mostly European tools) ­ Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs ­ In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing (limited) ­ Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited) Airports ­ High-level vs. detailed capabilities ­ Departure sequencing and delay Aircraft ­ Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft performance characteristics modeling ­ Aircraft performance as a function of on-board equipage

8. 8 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.) Collaborative Decision Making AOC’s/Pilots Flight slot swapping (pre-processing) Environmental Concerns - Only via post-processing Infrastructure - Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations Human Performance - Controller workload: task allocation and time-on-task Software – Architecture and Programming - Maturity of the tools - Validation and verification - Integration of new capabilities - Connectivity between tools

9. 9 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES Objective sector capacity evaluation as a function of: ­ Human performance ­ Traffic complexity ­ Separation standards ­ Weather Ability to distinguish operational and procedural differences across ­ Domains and airspace segments (en route, terminal, approach/departure, etc.) ­ Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR, equipage based performance, etc.) ­ Different categories of airspace (PBA)

10. 10 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.) Propagation of impacts from one restriction to another (including CDM) Conflict detection and resolution Capacity-demand imbalances (MAP’s, in-trail restrictions, LOA’s, etc.) Flight re-routing (SUA’s, congestion, weather, etc.) Propagation of impacts from one resource to another ­ Both from ground to air, and air to air resource ­ Supporting infrastructure and its requirements ­ System errors, update rates, failures and outages ­ Incorporation of stochastic processes and behaviors ­ Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position ­ Non-compliance with the expected user behavior (e.g. 4D contract and TMI) Future concepts of interest (examples) ­ Dynamic Sectorization ­ Multi Sector Planner ­ Trajectory Based Operations

11. 11 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.) Standardized performance measures and indicators to facilitate repeatability and cross-comparison of the outcomes Optimization capabilities, including both individual trajectory and flow or system wide optimized solutions Environmental considerations, restrictions, and trade-offs Other considerations ­ Sensitivity analysis ­ Validation and verification ­ Difficulty of integration of new capabilities and disconnectivity between tools

12. 12 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future Required level of detail Flexibility Industry Participation Needed Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air carriers, etc.) ­ 4D trajectory building ­ Fuel burn CDM ­ Airline goals ­ Re-routing negotiations

13. 13 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation CONCLUSIONS Ba lance between too much and too little detail is important Flexibility is crucial ­ Desired level of fidelity as a function of modeling objective ­ Do not focus on generating outcomes and data-drilling capabilities ­ Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities while ensuring consistency Plug-and-play capabilities ­ Flexible modeling environment ­ Harmonious modeling components

14. 14 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation Contact Information Albert Schwartz, FAA albert.schwartz@faa.gov