1. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring Presented by Bob Kuligowski Presented by Bob Kuligowski

2. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 2 Requirement, Science, and Benefit Requirement/Objective Mission Goal: Weather & Water –Increase lead time and accuracy for weather and water warnings and forecasts –Increase development, application, and transition of advanced science and technology to operations and services –Reduce uncertainty associated with weather and water decision tools and assessments Science What are the optimal methods and algorithms by which multi-spectral and multi-platform (GEO and LEO) satellite observations, in-situ data, and numerical models can be integrated to provide usefully accurate, near-real-time quantitative precipitation information? Benefit Improve weather forecasting Reduce loss of life and property from disasters

3. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 3 Challenges and Path Forward Science challenges –Midlatitude “warm” rain and snow are still very difficult to detect using either microwave or IR –Orographic effects highly difficult to depict properly Next steps –Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis: Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR Core satellite launch in 2013; constellation will include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010), and other PMW instruments –Research to Operations: Implement SCaMPR in GOES-R Ground System Final code to be turned in to System Prime contractor in September 2010 Transition Path –Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R era if approved by SPSRB

4. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 4 Basics of Satellite Rainfall Monitoring Two ways to retrieve rainfall rate: Infrared (IR): relate cloud-top temperature to cloud height, depth, and rain rate –Strength: can monitor from geostationary orbit –Weakness: weak physical connection between cloud-top properties and rain rate Microwave (MW): relate horizontal temperature differences to cloud water / ice content and rain rate –Strength: relatively strong connection between cloud contents and rain rate –Weakness: can monitor only from low-Earth orbit—a few snapshots per day

5. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 5 NESDIS’ Operational Hydro-Estimator (H-E) Developed at STAR as an automation of manual techniques also previously developed at STAR Operational since 2002; disseminated to NWS field offices via AWIPS Uses IR window to derive rain rates; uses numerical weather model output to adjust for sub- cloud-top influences (e.g., evaporation, terrain effects) Run globally in real time on an experimental basis Run operationally in Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil, South Africa Providing flash flood forecast support in Central America, Mekong Delta, Southern Africa via collaboration with NWS and HRC Hourly H-E Estimates for 4 June 2009 Hydro-Estimator 1-hour Accumulated Rainfall (mm)

6. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 6 NESDIS’ Experimental Rainfall Algorithm Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval (SCaMPR) Developed at STAR Uses more-accurate MW rain rates to automatically calibrate more-frequently- available IR inputs from GOES in real time Run in real time over the CONUS since late 2004 Improvements currently being evaluated, including additional GOES data and expanded coverage area Modified version of SCaMPR developed for GOES-R ABI using SEVIRI as proxy

7. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 7 Challenges and Path Forward Science challenges –Midlatitude “warm” rain and snow are still very difficult to detect using either microwave or IR –Orographic effects highly difficult to depict properly Next steps –Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis: Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR Core satellite launch in 2013; constellation will include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010), and other PMW instruments –Research to Operations: Implement SCaMPR in GOES-R Ground System Final code to be turned in to System Prime contractor in September 2010 Transition Path –Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R era if approved by SPSRB