1. How to establish economic values for crop wild relatives: methods and data sources Presentation prepared for PGR Forum workshop 2 Korsǿr, Denmark, 27 – 29 April 2005 Maria Scholten Brian Ford-Lloyd Nigel Maxted Shelagh Kell

2. Economic valuation of crop wild relatives: methods and data sources 1. Context of valuation: prioritisation of 1025 genera 2. Types of values. Application to PGR 3. Methodologies of valuating biodiversity 4. How to apply these methods? 5. Economic data types and prioritisation

3. Context = prioritisation IBPGR ‘Revised priorities among crops and regions’ 1.Risk of genetic loss 2.Economic and social importance of the materials in terms of their present usefulness and importance (volume or value of production and trade, numbers of people depending on them) 3.Recognized requirements of plant breeders and research workers 4.Size, scope and quality of existing collections. Source: IBPGR 1981

4. 16 of 30 Priority genera OPGC (USA) have European native relatives Aquilegia Aster Campanula Chrysanthemum Dianthus Euphorbia Geranium Salvia Verbena Veronica Viola Hemerocallis Impatiens Iris Lilium Narcissus

5. A typology of values

6. A typology of values: application to PGR activities ActivityDirect use value Indirect use value Non-use value PGR in wild recreational optionalintrinsic Inventorybreeding/recreationaloptionalintrinsic In situ breeding/recreationaloptionalintrinsic Ex situbreedingoptional- Evaluationbreedingoptional/diversity- Prebreedingbreedingdiversity- (source: Gollin and Evenson 2003)

7. Market prices for UK crop wild relatives? Taraxacum, Rumex, Anthriscum, Malva leaves harvested in the wild: £15 per kg box (source: Observer April 2005) Wild harvested produce in EU(25): 487 – 3, 903 tonnes/year (source: EUROSTAT) would represent a total value between 0.7 and 500 million euros?

8. M ethods of economic valuation A. Market price evaluation: e.g. market contracts B. Non-market price evaluation to value non- market goods: Stated preferences: based on questionnaires Revealed preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”

9. Non-market valuation: contingency valuation Country Biodiversity categoryWTP per household/year Norway 1990Brown bear, wolf $15.0 USA 1990Bald eagle$12.4 USA 1990Grizzly bear$18.5 USA 1990Blue whale$ 9.3 USA 1990Bighorn sheep$ 8.6 USA 1990Bottlenose dolphin$ 7.0 Germany 1991Endangered species € 72 Sweden1989300 endangered species€139 Portugal 2002Natural parks and wilderness€ 38 NL 1994Wildlife habitat enhancing € 8 – 23 UK 1992Wetland site protection € 6 – 17.5 PGR Forum 2005Weedy crop wild relative€ ? ( Source: Pearce and Moran 1994 / Nunes et al 2002)

10. Example of non-market valuation: production function Estimating marginal value of pre-breeding materials Example: 573 soybean accessions in USDA germplasm collection Method: Maximum Entropy Result: expected yield loss prevented by additional accession: 0.00024%. Because of large value of soybean as a crop and the large losses to be expected from the specific pest under study this percentage can be considered high. (source: Zohrabian 2003)

11. Non-market valuation: production loss averted Production loss averted. Has been used in the past to evaluate PGR: their role in reducing future crop losses. Example: corn leaf blight in 1970’s. Quantitative estimates of the insurance value of PGR may be inferred from crop insurance markets (Swanson, Pearce and Cercigni 1994). Problematic about this approach: ignores substitution effects and real agricultural losses (Gollin 1998).

12. Data types to value crops Optional value = potential of crop for the breeding industry: Number of ex situ accessions Number of varieties currently marketed Number of applications for variety protection Current value = market value of crop: Area harvested in hectares Production in tonnes harvested Price per unit Total value (price per unit * total volume)

13. Common Catalogues of horticultural and agricultural species Year of reference: 2003 –81 agricultural crops –46 horticultural crops –14 000 agricultural varieties –13 000 horticultural varieties –65 genera in total –50 genera with European native wild relatives –Highest number of crops per genus: Brassica

16. Forages ranking by number of varieties in the EU Common Catalogue

17. Community Plant Variety Office (CPVO): > 11 000 applications for plant variety rights since 1995 1038 taxa currently covered In 2002: 68% of applications for ornamental taxa 19% of applications for agricultural taxa 8% for vegetables 6 % for fruit varieties

18. (source: CPVO April 2005) CPVO plant variety rights granted since 1995

19. Prioritising CPVO ornamental genera – is not difficult!

20. MARKET VALUE 15 EU countries between 2000 – 2003 Price range over 15 countries × Average volume (tonnes) produced between 2000 - 2003 Minimum total value = minimum price × volume Maximum total value = maximum price × volume

22. FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004 area harvested production in tonnes 1Triticum55336886185454446 2Beta4729537177927594 3Solanum9053554141668674 4Hordeum3074917689483878 5Secale844728519319049 6Avena922214218215644 7Linum647764418065557 8Brassica440204611619707 9Olea454813010170412 10Triticale19295147895145

23. 11Fagopyrum16224341061060 12Vicia551462655122 13Sorghum158229649931 14Cannabis380419364231 15Sinapis214092118187 16Saccharum120395078 17Lupinus7195482602 18Cicer10828478914 19Ipomoea518959264 20Humulus4366855447 FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004

24. Vegetable genera top 12 - FAO 1Brassica687529.7314352410.64 2Pisum2843786.828006513.36 3Allium554592.547991241.73 4Daucus275,900.366,958,587.55 5Lactuca143,619.913,323,156.27 6Cynara84,184.00848,428.82 7Vicia244273.82719224.27 8Solanum28,145.82714,128.09 9Asparagus58,075.73239,793.27 10Ceratonia103,548.09164,626.09 11Chicorium17,379.18148,809.36 12Foeniculum40,659.0936,159.64

25. hectares harvestedMtonnes 1Vitis449946230248913 2Citrus388979726931057 3Prunus299490519708123 4Malus163234416689602 5Pyrus2714293596361 6Fragaria1451771239513 7Rubus62525296146 8Juglans140533295996 9Ficus143265207944 10Ribes29135177292 11Corylus99690143569 12Castanea77370142359 13Cydonia1019257636 14Vaccinium1736951083 15Pistacia87289514 Fruit top genera 1994 -2004 - FAOSTAT

26. Forages’ seed market

27. Dutch Flower Auction production and price for most important ornamental crops 2003 genuscategorytimes 1000 volumeprice/unit (€ )total value (€) Rosacut flower6813300.2136266000 Liliumcut flower1599990.4165599590 Chrysanthemumcut flower2990670.2162804070 Ficushouse plants355261.760394200 Tulipacut flower1859080.1426027120 Chrysanthemumhouse plants291300.8123595300 Rosahouse plants230101.0123240100 Buxusgarden plants132691.6622026540 Hederahouse plants247500.184455000 Violagarden plants163700.264256200

28. Synthesis: prioritising by combined ranking (1) GENUSRANKING IN COMBINED RANK COMCAT CPVOPRODUCTION Triticum41top 5 Rosa11top 5 Beta32top 5 Chrysanthemum22top 5 Solanum53top 5 Lilium33top 5 Vitis45top 5 Lolium61top 10 Festuca102top 10

29. Synthesis (2): prioritised genera Top 5 genera Triticum Beta Solanum Rosa Chrysanthemum Lilium Vitis Top 10 genera Lolium, Festuca, Hordeum Tulipa Brassica Malus Olea Top 15 genera Citrus Prunus Pisum Allium Daucus Trifolium Top 20 genera Avena Citrullus Pyrus Lactuca Vicia Fragaria

30. Per capita average supply of calories – Europe 1992 - 2002

31. TAK

32. References FAO 1998 The state of the world’s plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. FAO, Rome. IBPGR Revised priorities among crops and regions. IBPGR, Rome, 1981 Nunes, P.A.L.D., van den Bergh, J.C.J.M and P. Nijkamp 2002 The ecological economics of biodiversity. Edward Elgar – UK –USA Pearce, D. and D. Moran 1994 The economic value of biodiversity. Earthscan books Ltd. Reid, W.V. et al. 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers. WRI/IUCN/UNEP Smale and Koo 2003 Ten Kate, K. and S. Laird 1999 The commercial uses of biodiversity. Access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. Earthscan Publications Ltd.

33. Biodiversity indicators to help set priorities? WRI IUCN WCMC indicators for domesticated species: Accessions of crops in ex situ storage % of accessions regenerated Number of crops grown Number of varieties grown Kinship or parentage of crop Source: WRI IUCN WCMC 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers

34. FAO State of the World’s PGRFA 1998 Some conclusions on methods to assign economic value: Many attempts to valuate biological diversity as public goods Various biodiversity functions (ecosystem) are valued rather than plant genetic resources As a consequence: little application to valuation of plant genetic resources Prioritisation: 30 major world crops listed

35. Typology of values: some problems with its application to PGR Use value of PGR is based on actual and potential flow of materials from a collection into a breeding program This cannot be directly measured Option value is an important component of a genebank accession but how to measure?

36. Modelling bioprospecting of pharmaceuticals (Source: Simpson 1996)

37. Example of non-market valuation: hedonic pricing “Estimating an implicit price for environmental attributes by looking at real markets in which those characteristics are effectively traded” (Pearce and Moran 1994). Has been used to analyse productivity of alternative categories of rice germplasm in India (Gollin and Evenson 1998) Entailing a statistical regression relating a measure of varietal improvement in farmers’ fields to factors expected to cause or produce varietal improvement.

38. Non-market economic valuation Revealed Preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”: 1.Production Function 2.Hedonic Price 3.Averting behaviour or losses

40. Dutch Flower Auction minimum prices for most important crops Aster0.05 Chrysanthemum0.05 - 0.07 Lilium0.05-0.07 Limonium0.04 Matthiola0.04 Rosa0.04 Delphinium0.03 Dianthus0.03-0.04 Eremurus0.03 Euphorbia0.03-0.05 Gypsophila0.03 -0.05 Hyacinthus0.03 Iris0.03 Tulipa0.02-0.03