1. Economic Outlook Orlando, FL December 20 th, 2011

2. U.S. Forecast Gone Wilde Oscar Wilde 1854-1900

3. U.S. Forecast  Are We Experiencing a Dorian Gray Recovery?  Are the Sins, Transgressions and Policy Missteps During, and in the Wake of, the Great Recession Appearing on the Visage of the U.S. Economy?

4. U.S. Forecast  Lost Wealth and Languishing Labor Market  A Downward force on consumer spending  In 3 rd Quarter Wealth Contracted as Financial Asset Values Declines

5. U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $) 2005200620072008 2009 Q1* 2011 Q3 Total Assets 71.378.679.566.6 62.8 71.1 Financial Assets 42.949.051.442.2 39.6 47.7 Home Equity 13.212.810.37.0 6.1 6.2 Net Worth 59.165.1 52.4 48.7 57.3

6. U.S. Economic Outlook 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 GDP % Change, Annual Rate 0.41.32.02.81.7 1.4 Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate 5.24.13.11.11.2 0.6 Consumer Sentiment 73.171.960.660.367.6 70.7 Consumption % Change, Annual Rate 2.10.72.32.72.0 2.3

7. U.S. Forecast

9. A look at the Florida housing data: October 2011 Snapshot

10. Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA October 2011 October 2010 %Chg October 2011 October 2010 %Chg STATEWIDE 13,75512,1459$131,200$136,600-4 Fort Myers-Cape Coral 9381,002-6$102,100$89,10015 Melbourne-Titusville- Palm Bay 5214828$106,800$97,6009 Lakeland-Winter Haven 28124614$104,300$94,2006 Pensacola 2962738$142,000$141,2001 Ocala 2592523$80,300$79,7001 Orlando 2,1361,82217$127,800$130,800-2 Florida Sales Report – October 2011 Single-Family, Existing Homes

11. Florida Sales Report – October 2011 Single-Family, Existing Homes Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA October 2011 October 2010 %Chg October 2011 October 2010 %Chg STATEWIDE 13,75512,1459$131,200$136,600-4 West Palm Beach- Boca Raton 91872327$184,900$221,200-16 Jacksonville 94384112$124,100$141,000-12 Miami 76954641$174,600$199,100-12 Gainesville 12010020$154,00$174,000-11 Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater 2,2071,92315$123,800$137,900-10 Orlando 2,1361,82217$127,800$130,800-2

12. A look at the housing data: January 1994– October 2011

17. Florida Forecast  In 2010 the recovery began, we finished some repairs, loaded up and pushed back from the gate and slowly taxied to the runway 2011 2012 is our new runway  Heavy crosswinds in 2011 necessitated the change  As year progresses we will gradually pickup speed  Job growth doesn’t takeoff until 2013 and 2014  Turbulence  Demographics hinder recovery  Housing market woes weigh  Budget shortfalls: State & local government

18. Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast

19. Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast

20. Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast

21. Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast

22. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.4--- Deltona 0.69 Gainesville 0.88 Jacksonville 1.43 Lakeland 1.43 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.82 Ocala 1.34 Orlando 1.91 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 1.07 Tallahassee 1.34 Tampa 1.25 2011-2014 Averages; Q4 2011 Forecast

23. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.7--- Deltona 1.83 Gainesville 0.87 Jacksonville 1.92 Lakeland 1.26 Miami 1.64 Naples 1.64 Ocala 1.83 Orlando 2.01 Palm Bay 0.79 Pensacola 1.35 Tallahassee 0.68 Tampa 1.92 2011-2014 Averages; Q4 2011 Forecast

24. Orlando Metro Forecast

26. 2011-2014 Averages; Q4 2011 Forecast ORLANDO Sector % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 3.7 Leisure & Hospitality2.8 Education-Health Services2.7 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 Manufacturing1.3 Construction & Mining1.3 Other Services0.8 Information0.8 Financial0.5 State & Local Government0.4 Federal Government-3.1

27. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) 823-1453 Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDUwww.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith Thank you