1. Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005 Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio- Economic Impacts of Drought Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Dr. Muhammad Akram Kahlown Chairman

2. Resource Base (Water) Surface Water: 175 Bm 3 Total Available Storage: 20 Bm 3 Sedimentation in Storage: 0.2 Bm 3 Canal Diversions: 130 Bm 3 Groundwater Availability: 82 Bm 3 Groundwater Withdrawal: 62 Bm 3 Irrigated Area: 18 Mha Available for Additional Cultivation: 12 Mha

3. Year 2001 Year 2004 Year 2011 Water Availability at Farm gate: Surface water Surface water Groundwater Groundwater Total Total104621661056216711962181* Water Requirement: Irrigation Other Uses Total166 7173177**8185209**11220 Shortfall5%11%21% In 2025 Shortfall up to 50% (PWP, 2000) * Watercourse improvement (7.39 Bm 3 ), Raising Mangla (3.82 Bm 3 ), Kurram Tangi Dam (1.48 Bm 3 ), Small Dams (0.37 Bm 3 ), Gomal Zam (1.4 Bm 3 ), Mirani (0.37 Bm 3 ) ** Population Growth 2.6 to 1.9, increased food requirements and land reclamation (Bm 3 ) Water Availability and Demands

4. Drought Hit Areas in Pakistan CharacteristicBalochistanSindh Geographical Area (Mha) 34.7214.09 Cultivated Area (Mha) 1.995.71 Population (million) 6.5730.00 Annual Rainfall (mm) 50-250200-250 AgricultureRainfedIrrigated

5. ProvinceCitiesPeriodFrequency Punjab Lahore1953-200013 Jhelum1950-20007 Rawalpindi1959-20007 Murree1960-20004 NWFP Peshawar1950-200010 Balakot1961-20006 Sindh Nawabshah1954-200020 Jacobabad1931-200032 Badin1931-200027 Chhor1931-200018 Balochistan Sibbi1931-200020 Nokundi1957-200017 Dalbadin1931-200023 Panjgur1931-200025 Ormara1961-200012 Kalat1931-200015 Droughts in Pakistan

6.  Livestock herds  Cultivation of Orchards  Growing of Agricultural Crops Major Socio-Economic Activities in Drought Hit Areas

7. Animal Species Number of Heads (million) Reduction (%) 1996 Census 2002 Census Cattle1.3410.96528 Sheep10.8415.24652 Goat9.3706.06535 Buffalos0.1610.09740 Camel0.3390.15255 Horses0.0430.02444 Mules0.0030.00234 Donkey0.3830.29623 Total22.48112.84743 Livestock Production in Balochistan

8. Cropped Area Reduction in Balochistan Year Area Reduction (%) WheatBarleySorghum 1998-99273863 1999-00236471 2000-01255670 2001-02235572 2002-03215566 2003-04215662 Base Year: 1995-96

9. Crops Production Reduction in Balochistan Year Production Reduction (%) WheatBarleySorghum 1998-99203857 1999-00437166 2000-01346268 2001-02316170 2002-03306265 2003-04296261 Base Year: 1995-96

10. Orchards Yield Reduction in Balochistan Year Yield Reduction (%) AppleApricotAlmond 1998-99452 1999-00544639 2000-01534538 2001-02544653 2002-03624850 2003-04845954 Base Year: 1995-96

11. Impact on Cropped Area in Sindh Year Impact (%) WheatSugarcaneRice 1998-99+2+6+10 1999-00+3-9+7 2000-01-27-6-16 2001-02-21-5-28 2002-03-22-2-24 2003-04-21-2-14 Base Year: 1995-96

12. Impact on Crops Yield in Sindh Year Impact (%) WheatSugarcaneRice 1998-99+12+17+4 1999-00+24+15+16 2000-01+30-7+18 2001-02+13-12-5 2002-03+15+1 2003-04+17-4-2 Base Year: 1995-96

13.  Agricultural production ready to be harvested Crops Crops Orchards Orchards Vegetables Vegetables  Losses in animal stock Livestock Livestock Poultry Poultry  Losses to rangelands  Reduced yields in future crops  Not planting of future crops  Losses to water sources  Loss of employment in various sectors (agriculture, industrial and tourism) Economic Sector Drought Damages

14.  Food cost and temporary shelter for affectees during migration  Destruction and repair costs of housing appliances  Losses of “Backyard economy” assets: Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) Small species cattle Small species cattle Vegetable gardens Vegetable gardens Informally raised crops Informally raised crops  Repair of damaged housing, schooling and health infrastructure  Rehabilitation costs of communication and water supply systems Social Sector Drought Damages

15.  Identify organizations and personnel active in the affected area  Identify the priority zones through Preliminary reports Preliminary reports Meteorological data Meteorological data Remote sensing or aerial photography Remote sensing or aerial photography Interviews of persons working in the areas Interviews of persons working in the areas  Determine the areas to be assessed Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought Continued …………..

16.  Conduct the drought assessment through: An over flight of the project area An over flight of the project area Ground surveys to collect data on extent of drought and pattern of damages Ground surveys to collect data on extent of drought and pattern of damages Series of interviews of the affectees, relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc. Series of interviews of the affectees, relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc. Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought Continued …………..

17.  Conduct random sampling of health and nutritional status including: Mortality Mortality Morbidity Morbidity Pregnant and lactating women Pregnant and lactating women Children under five Children under five Small farmers Small farmers Families of herdsmen Families of herdsmen Low income village dwellers Low income village dwellers  Conduct post-field assessment interviews Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought

18.  Development of national drought policy  Establishment of national climate monitoring system  Post drought audits of response efforts  Establishment of regional drought forums  Development of national drought mitigation plans Strategies to Reduce Drought Risk

19.  Monitoring activities  Impact assessment efforts  Mitigation measures  R&D endeavors Drought Management in Pakistan

20.  Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)  Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)  Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs)  District governments Agencies Involved in Drought Monitoring

21.  Establishment of a drought and environmental monitoring center (DEMC): Four provincial meteorological centers  Exploration of drought characteristics like intensity, magnitude and extent (spatial and temporal)  Issuance of drought forecasts and warnings to various user agencies  Although forecasting accuracy is satisfactory, warning system is weak and underdeveloped  The information does not reach the people in rural areas who are likely to be affected by drought Role of PMD in Drought Monitoring

22.  Collection & analyses of data on the following parameters to determine the impacts of climatic changes: Rivers flowsRivers flows Storage reservoirs levelsStorage reservoirs levels Groundwater levelsGroundwater levels  Dissemination of information to concerned federal/provincial agencies Role of WAPDA in Drought Monitoring

23.  Monitoring of canal diversions and distributing water within the canal network  Management of canal supplies through the following interventions: Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basis Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basis Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stages Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stages Operate canals on revised rotations Operate canals on revised rotations Role of PIDAs in Drought Monitoring

24.  Coordination of information with provincial administration on unusual changes in water availability provided by the following line departments: Agriculture Agriculture Livestock Livestock Public health Public health Revenue Revenue Etc. Etc. Role of District Govts. In Drought Monitoring

25. No single institution is responsible for drought monitoring in the country Limitation in Drought Monitoring

26.  Promulgation of National Calamity Act, 1958  Establishment of Federal Level Institutions Emergency Relief Cell Emergency Relief Cell Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Assistance (DERA) Unit Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Assistance (DERA) Unit  Establishment of Provincial Level Institutions Relief Commission Office Relief Commission Office Drought Crisis Control Centre Drought Crisis Control Centre Drought Management Committees Drought Management Committees DERA Unit DERA Unit Drought Mitigation Measures in Pakistan

27.  Lack of reliable and authentic drought data  Absence of drought mitigation infrastructure and strategy  Lack of National Drought Policy  Complexity of drought assessment in various sectors  Non-existence of drought monitoring and assessment criteria Hindrances in Drought Impact Assessment

28.  Formulation of a National Drought Policy/Plan  Implementation of the National Drought Policy  Initiation of R&D Program for drought management  Adoption of criteria for drought impact assessment:  vulnerability indicators  economic threshold  income of people Recommendations

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