1. Africa Adaptation Programme
NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development
Joseph D. Intsiful
Data and information Management Expert
This presentation outlines the key responsibilities of country participants in building their tier-1 and tier-2 infrastructure as part of their contribution to the establishment of the AAP multi-tier infrastructure. We provide key ideas that were developed and shared among participants of the AAP-ICTP workshops on Development, Use and Management of Climate Data Servers.
We also provide technical support and services to countries through our helpdesk to support the procurement of HPC/Climate servers, installation, use and management of HPC/Climate data servers. We also support improving country access to robust climate data and building capacities for information management.
WMO GFCS Workshop, WMO, Geneva, 10 – 12 OCTOBER 2011
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

2. Content Background - nature of the problem of capacity in NMS
Need for innovative approaches to capacity development
The role of regional institutions
Building on existing regional programmes
Summary and conclusion
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

3. Background
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

4. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
90 % of events
70 % of casualties
78 % of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.
Economic
losses
Loss of life
Number of
events
Between 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions. 4

5. Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise !
Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change!
Vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Energy
Transportation
Water Resource
Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Agriculture
Urban areas
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Caucasus: floods, droughts and landslides
Central Asia: floods, droughts, avalanches and landslides
10 % of the total population of Central Asia has been affected by disasters in the last 10 years, 2500 died
Sand and dust storm
Hot spots: Tadjikistan and Fergana Valley
Projected Impact of Climate change (IPCC)
Caucasus:
increase in temperature, increase of heatwaves, precipitation intensity, and precipitation per extreme events will increase, runoff will decraese
Decrease in reservoir water levels itensifying landslides, increase of droughts and precipitations
Black Sea level to rise
Increase snow melt causing flask floods
Central Asia
Glacier melting
Decrease in mean annual precipitation, increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and automn seasons
Crop yield could decrease up to 30 %
Changes in runoff could have significant effect on powe output of hydropower generating countries
Increase in temnperature will increase the probability of avalanches and mudflows
Main economic sectors linked to HydoMet and climate
Hydropower and dam management
Georgia 70 % HydroPower dependant
Kazakhstan possesses 5 operational hydroelectric plants which provide roughly 12% of the electricity generation.
Tajikistan and Kirghizstan (90 % of hydroelec)
Agriculture
Agriculture (20-30 % of GDP in all countries except Kazakhstan)
Importance of irrigation for cotton production, large irrigation infrastructure
Water
Kirghistan and Tadjikistan generate 70 % of the water of the whole Central Asia
Kazahkstan, Ouzbekistan and Turkmenistan have large irrigated areas depending on these water resources
Transportation
Landlocked countries
Need for long-term
planning to manage
multi-sectoral risks
Drought
Heatwaves
Frequency
Source: 2006 WMO DRR report

6. Climate Products for Risk Management and Adaptation Planning
Short to medium term weather forecasts
Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts
Decadal climate trend analysis
Climate change scenarios
Next hour to 10 days
Season to year
Decade
Long term climate change
Short-term planning
Emergency Preparedness
Medium-term operational planning
Risk assessment and management
Long-term strategic planning
Infrastructures planning, retrofitting
Land zoning
International negotiations with national policy implications
Decision-making Timelines

7. … from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest.
Products required at local scale but
often available at coarse scale.
… from a global climate model (GCM) grid
to the point of interest.
© Crown copyright Met Office

8. Challenges to the delivery of products and services to support national development
Over 88 % of NMHS in Africa, are challenged in delivering climate products and services to support DRR
92% lack appropriate application software
96% need upgrading of operational infrastructure to support DRR
92% need technical training on production of climate products and services
85% say lack of effective co-ordination with other agencies involved in DRR impacts negatively on operations
Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey

9. Need for innovative approaches to Capacity Development in NMS

10. Elements of Innovative Approaches
Requires supporting NMS to develop Integrated and Comprehensive approaches to providing robust and user-relevant Climate Products and Services
Efficient data and information management support to countries to effectively support National Planning and Decision Making Mechanisms
Participatory stakeholder interactions to involve the user community in problem definition and solution development processes

11. Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service
AFRICA ADAPTATION PROGRAMME
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service
Local and national emergency service
Governmental authorities
Public
Local and national emergency service
Construction companies
Food suppliers
Urban planners
Local to national govt
Banks
Companies
USERS
Legislators
APPLICATION
Urban & coastal areas seasonal preparation of Stocking of constrution materials
Medium to long-term strategic planning
Infrastructure development
Land use zoning and planning
Building codes
emergency planning activation and response
Eg: evacuation
Long-term strategic planning
Probabilistic seasonal to inter annual forecast eg: probabilities of severity and intensity of extreme events
Short to medium term weather forecasts
Eg tropical cyclone, storm surge, flood
SERVICE
Decadal climate trend analysis
Climate change scenarios
Next hour to 10 days
Season to year
Decade
Long term
climate change

12. Integrated & Comprehensive Data Collection/Sharing Framework
Integrated and comprehensive approaches are required for data collection. Both bio-physical and socio-economic data about our human and natural systems that is geo-referenced in space and time is critical. Data homogenization approaches are a must.
Multi-disciplinary, Spatio-temporal and Data Platform-independent Standard

13. Integrated Analysis and Visualization Seamless Data Integration
Integrated Data Analysis and Viewer
Integrating platform to integrate heterogeneous and multi-disciplinary datasets
Integrated data analysis and visualization – frontend of Decision Support Tools for multi-sectoral assessment
The establishment and use of early warning and decision support systems are being widely applied.
Tier 0: A central computer that is large enough to host considerable amount of data located at International Centre for Theoretical Physics (AAP partner)
Tier 1: Consist of four African Regional Centres with capacity large enough to guarantee that combined data created and stored is similar to that of Tier 0.
Tier 2: Consist of all AAP Countries that will access the infrastructure by means of an internet - web interface.

14. Regional Multi-tier Climate Data storage
and Computational Infrastructure
Tier 2: All member countries
Tier 1: Regional Centres
Tier 0: Control Centre
A multi-tier climate data server.

15. NMS Components Climate Products and Services
Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectiveness
Legal, Media and Communication
Innovative Financing
Knowledge Management
Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

16. The role of regional institutions

17. Building Sustainable Regional Capacity
Climate information as a regional public good
Improve capabilities within MNS through collective action
Share knowledge and experiences on nation-specific benefits
Contribute to the reduction of asymmetries among countries
Demonstrate that a regional climate service can be enhanced as a result of improving national components
Agree upon regional coordination mechanisms
Mobilize regional resources (financial, human and infrastructure) to promote regional capacity
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

18. Inter-Regional Technical Support Component (IRTSC)
Climate Products and Services
Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectiveness
Legal, Media and Communication
Innovative Financing
Knowledge Management
Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

19. A Key IRTSC Function
Facilitate access to the best available data and information on climate variability, change and impacts to support dynamic, long-term national planning and decision-making mechanisms.
Through:
Assisting in the early analysis and design of national projects and, as those projects are being initiated and implemented.
Providing assistance to countries in accessing/generating, collecting and analyzing best available data on climate variability, change and its impacts.
Building capacities of countries to address operational challenges - establishment and use of e-infrastructure (ICT, data, tools, methods, network of institutions), early warning systems and decision support tools.

20. IRTSC support to national activities
Country activities are designed to achieve ….
Strengthening provision of climate products for national planning to enable countries manage both existing and future risks associated with climate change and other causes
Building effective leadership and institutional frameworks for enhanced coordination and cohesion of activities
Supporting the piloting of innovative research initiatives
Identifying a range of financing options for sustained operation
Building knowledge management systems and promoting information sharing
Building mechanisms to ensure successful implementation of activities
activities are designed to ensure that inter-regional expertise and capacity development is provided to countries including.....
Advice and assistance relating to appropriate use of climate information in government decision/ policy-making and planning mechanisms
Support for leadership development and institutional reform as well as enabling individual development
Encouraging exposure to world best practices - data, tools and methods
Support in finding innovative funding options (e.g. public-private partnerships)
Creation of region-wide databases and learning opportunities
Support for project management to enforce monitoring and evaluation

21. Establishing and strengthening strategic networks
Built/strengthened network at different scale/level:
in-country linkages between climate products and services providers, policy/decision makers and end-users (disaster management institutions, NGOs, private and public sectors institutions).
strategic networks with key regional centres (ACMAD, CIIFEN, ACPC and RSMCs) and International Climate Centres (UKMO, NCAR, Meteo France, etc).
strategic networks with key international institutions (WMO, UNFCCC, WFP, ISDR, UNDP, UNEP, IFRC, ICTP, etc).

22. In-country technical assistance - mentoring, trouble shooting and advisory services
Developed a Helpdesk to enable rapid response to problem resolution – established a local network of problem-solvers, mentors and advisors.
In-country technical support for:
services on data and information management: data collection, analysis, e-infrastructure, tools and methods
Support procurement, use and management of operational infrastructure - early warning systems and decision support tools.

23. Building on existing regional programmes
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

24. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
Climate forecasts could be of substantial benefit to society in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.
RCOFs produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.
RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) .
Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.
RCOF sessions feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public.
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

25. DFID-Hadley Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP): Programme for Africa 3-year programme, 8.5 Hadley staff
Programme of research and user-guided application: for monthly, seasonal and decadal (10-year) timescales
Aims:
improve understanding of African climate processes, and their representation in climate models
jointly develop new forecast products to inform early warning systems and adaptation planning
study programmes and knowledge sharing, to strengthen climate science centres in Africa
consultation with African stakeholders to determine specific prediction requirements.
© Crown copyright Met Office 25

26. The CORDEX initiative Sponsored by the World Research Climate Programme
Provide an ensemble of coordinated Regional Climate Scenarios for , for the majority of land-regions of the globe
Make this data available and useable to users, with a common diagnostic set and format (following CMIP5) at worldwide archives – Regional and Global Databanks
Provide a novel framework for testing Regional Climate Models and Downscaling techniques for the recent past and future scenarios
Foster coordination between downscaling efforts around the world & encourage local participation in this process, especially in developing nations
With CMIP5 provide climate simulation data to support IPCC AR5 -
© Crown copyright Met Office

27. Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Initiative
Primary focus three areas:
Generation and wide dissemination of reliable and high quality information on climatic situation in Africa.
Capacity enhancement of policy makers and policy support institutions to integrate information on climate change into development programs.
Implementation of pilot adaptation practices that demonstrate the value of mainstreaming climate information into development.
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

28. Summary and Conclusion

29. Summary & Conclusion
Design and implement climate services based on the identified users’ demand
Assist in the generation of specific public policies regarding climate services
Ensure alliances with private, public, community and media
Foster the consolidation of multi-institutional frameworks
Develop a resource mobilization plan
Ensure the timely provision of training, e-infrastructure and knowledge networks
Ensure formal commitments and alliances.
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

30. Summary and Conclusion
Helpdesk for effective in-country technical support and services should be established at the regional level
Data and information management strategy should be developed and implemented.
Relevant networks and partnerships to support data and information management should be established.
Use existing regional and international projects to harness national resources and talents (e.g. CORDEX initiative).
Development of e-infrastructure for data and information management, early warning and decision support tools for national planning and development.

31. Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries.
Summary and Conclusion
Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries.
Continuously improve the e-infrastructure, tools and methods as updates become available.
Joint initiatives with partners to deliver products and services to support countries.

32. Summary and Conclusion
Appropriate national and regional frameworks should be established and negotiated with involvement of all stakeholders – national ownership.
Research partnerships would enhance regional and North-South collaboration – improve delivery of technical support and services.
Improved e-infrastructure would enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust climate products and services in a timely manner.

33. Thanks