1. In search of the optimal: satisficing and housing search models Presentation to HSA Conference 2015 r.j.dunning@shef.ac.uk @RichardJDunning

2. Housing policy & behavioural economics New Labour (e.g. Halpern) to Conservatives (Control Shift), the coalition & the Behavioural Insights Team (Jones et al, 2010; Ferrari et al., 2011 Dolan et al, 2012; Leggett, 2014) New Homes Bonus (Dunning et al., 2014) financial calculus, rational operators and organisational decision making Unclear impact, limited conceptualisation of problem or mechanism for change Financial Payments to Developers (DCLG, 2014) Rational actors, financialising emotions, competitive planning opposition Unclear impact, miscomprehension of motivations, behaviour

3. OBE and NBE Bifurcation or continuum – Old BE and New BE (Watkins & McMaster, 2011) Old BE Herbert Simon, procedural rationality, old institutionalism, social constructionism “the concept of “economic man” (and I might add his brother “administrative man”) is in need of fairly drastic revision” (Simon, 1955, P.99). New BE Mainstream/Neoclassical economics, utility maximisers with constraints, information deficit, psychological insights “Then behavioral economics will cease to be a distinctive label for an approach as it becomes part of mainstream economic thinking, evincing a healthy reunification of psychology and economics.” (Camerer, 1999, P.10577)

4. Spectral approach to BE

5. Tu & Goldfinch, 1996

7. Speare, Goldstein and Frey, 1975

9. Maclennan,198 2, P.68

10. Maclennan, 1982

11. Wong, 2002, P.224

12. Wong, 2002

13. Marsh & Gibb, 2011

15. Housing theory: an NBE-OBE spectrum

16. Conclusions Policy makers are misapplying / inconsistently applying BE Evidence that BE policies/‘insights’ aren’t achieving their objectives BE housing theory is failing to adequately explain its assumptions and perspectives This failure masks inconsistency (internally and externally) It suggests that there is no clear NBE/OBE bifurcation in research There is a research gap at the OBE end of the spectrum An OBE approach is compelling, but needs theorisation and an empirical programme This approach could address the ineffectiveness of BE policies

17. References DCLG (2014) Attitudinal research on financial payments to reduce opposition to new homes, DCLG, London Dolan, P., Hallsworth, M., Halpern, D., King, D., Metcalfe, R. & Vlaev, I. (2012) Changing Behaviour: The mindspace way, Journal of Economic Psychology, 33, PP.265-277 Dunning, R., Watkins, C.A., Inch, A., Payne, S., While, A., Young, G., Hickman, H., Bramley, G., McIntosh, S., Watkins, D. and Valler, D. (2014) The impact of the New Homes Bonus on attitudes and behaviour. Working Paper. Department for Communities and Local Government Ferrari, E., Henneberry, J., Leahy Laughlin, D., Tait, M., Watkins, C. & McMaster, R. (2011) Behavioural change approach to the housing sector, Department for Communities and Local Government, UK Jones, R. Pykett, J. & Whitehead, M. (2010) Governing temptation: Changing behaviour in an age of libertarian paternalism, Progress in Human Geography, 35, 4, PP.483-501 Leggett, W. (2014) The politics of behaviour change: nudge, neoliberalism and the state, Policy & Politics, 42, 1, 3-19 Maclennan, D. (1982) Housing Economics, Longman Group, Singapore Marsh, A. & Gibb, K. (2011) Uncertainty, Expectations and Behavioural Aspects of Housing Market Choices, Housing, Theory and Society, 28, 3, PP. 215-235 Speare, A., Goldstein, S. & Frey, W. (1975) Residential Mobility, Migration and Metropolitan Change, Ballinger Publishing Company, USA Tu, Y. & Goldfinch, J. (1996) A Two-stage Housing Choice Forecasting Model, Urban Studies, V. 33, No. 3, PP.517- 537 Watkins, C. & McMaster, R. (2011) The Behavioural Turn in Housing Economics: Reflections on the Theoretical and Operational Challenges, Housing, Theory & Society, 28, 3, PP. 281-287 Wong, G. (2002) A conceptual model of the household’s housing decision-making process: The economic perspective, RURDS, 14, 3, P.217-234

18. To Discover And Understand.