1. Water allocation optimization in the Orontes River Basin Georges Comair and Raquel Flinker

2. Outline  Description of the setting  UN Convention and Factors Associated with Equitable Water Use  Optimization function  Optimal allocation results

3. The Orontes River Basin

4. Factors Associated with Equitable Water Use 1. Geography 2. Hydrology 3. Climate 4. Past utilization of the waters 5. Economic and social needs 6. Population dependent on the waters 7. Comparative costs of alternative means of satisfying the economic and social needs of each basin state 8. Availability of other water resources 9. Degree to which the needs of a basin state may be satisfied, without causing appreciable harm and substantial injury to a co-basin state.

5. Factor 1: Geography CountriesCatchment area (km 2 ) Lebanon 2,208.73 Syria 16,979.18 Turkey 5,556.56 Total 24,744.48

6. Factor 2: Hydrology

7. Factor 3: Climate

8. Factor 4: Existing Utilization

9. Factor 5: Economic and Social Needs  Water demand that meets Economic and social needs.  Syria does not use its water resources very efficiently Countries Current Water Demand (million m 3 ) Lebanon 80 Syria 2,687 Turkey 500 Total 3,267

10. Factor 6: Population Dependent on Waters Countries Population Dependant on Waters Lebanon 0 Syria 2,528,000 Turkey 1,480,571 Total 4,008,571

11. Factor 7: Comparative Costs of Alternatives Countries GDP (million US$) World Bank 2010 Lebanon 39,006 Syria 59,147 Turkey 734,364 Total 832,517

12. Factor 8: Availability of Other Resources  Water Stress Index

13. Factor 9: Appreciable Harm  Can be measured by impacts on social, economic and environmental needs.

14. Class Survey 1. Geography 2. Hydrology 3. Climate 4. Existing utilization 5. Economic and social needs (water demand) 6. Population dependent on waters of the basin 7. Comparative costs of alternative (GDP) 8. Availability of other resources (Water Stress Index) 9. Appreciable harm

15. Optimization

16. Existence of Solutions  Weierstrass Theorem  Describes conditions on the objective function and the constraint set so that we are guaranteed that solutions will always exist  Constraint set is compact (closed and bounded)  Objective function is continuous on the constraint set

17. Optimization results

18. Questions 1. What additional factors do you think should be included in this analysis? 2. Do you agree with the assumptions made for each factor?