1. Juvenile survival, travel time and the in-river environment Presenter: Steve Haeseker CSS Annual Meeting Apr 2 nd 2010

2. Objectives: Develop models that explain variation in migration time and survival through the hydrosystem Measure and monitor juvenile Chinook and steelhead migration time and survival through the hydrosystem Examine associations between environmental factors and migration time and survival

3. Monitoring methods: Two reaches: LGR-MCN (CHW, CHH, STH&W) MCN-BON (CHH&W, STH&W) Weekly release cohorts of PIT-tagged fish Estimated median fish travel time (FTT) and survival rate

4. Environmental and Management Factors: Seasonality (Julian Day) Temperature Turbidity Average percent spill Water travel time (WTT, days)

5. Water Transit Time (WTT) Estimate of the number of days required for average water particle to transit a reservoir 3 days 2.5 days 8 days

6. Migration Year WTT Long-term changes in LGR-BON WTT

7. 19982000200220042006 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 LGR-MCNMCN-BON Yearling Chinook median travel times

8. 19982000200220042006 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 LGR-MCNMCN-BON Yearling Chinook median travel times

9. 19982000200220042006 LGR-MCNMCN-BON Environmental and management factors: WTT, percent spill, Julian day 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 94%88%

10. Steelhead median travel times LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103

11. Steelhead median travel times LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103

12. Steelhead median travel times Environmental and management factors: WTT, percent spill, Julian day LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 90%89%

13. Mid-late April Early May Late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) yearling Chinook travel time (days)

14. Early May Late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April yearling Chinook travel time (days)

15. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April yearling Chinook travel time (days) 13.3 9.510.4

16. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Mid-late April Water Transit Time (days) steelhead travel time (days)

17. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Mid-late April Water Transit Time (days) steelhead travel time (days)

18. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Mid-late April Water Transit Time (days) steelhead travel time (days) 11.1 9.910.5

19. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April Percent Spill Chinook steelhead

20. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Unimpounded travel time = 5 to 9 days (Raymond 1979) Mid-late April Percent Spill Chinook steelhead

21. Mortality approach to survival Mortality = 1 - Survival If daily survival is 0.98, then daily mortality is 0.02 (2%) Survival Migration time (days) 90% 61% 37% If we can predict migration time and daily mortality, then we can predict survival

22. yearling Chinook mortality rates 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 LGR-MCNMCN-BON

23. yearling Chinook mortality rates 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 LGR-MCNMCN-BON

24. yearling Chinook mortality rates LGR-MCNMCN-BON Factors: WTT, Julian dayFactors: Julian day 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 25%45%

25. LGR-MCNMCN-BON steelhead mortality rates 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103

26. LGR-MCNMCN-BON steelhead mortality rates 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103

27. LGR-MCNMCN-BON Factors: WTT, Julian day, spillFactors: temperature steelhead mortality rates 98 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 02 04 99 0705 06 000103 54%51%

28. Mid-late April Mid-late May Early May yearling Chinook daily mortality Water Transit Time (days)

29. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April steelhead daily mortality

30. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April steelhead daily mortality

31. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April steelhead daily mortality

32. Yearling Chinook survival LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 Outmigration year

33. Yearling Chinook survival LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 Outmigration year

34. Yearling Chinook survival LGR-MCNMCN-BON 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 63% 38% Outmigration year

35. LGR-MCNMCN-BON steelhead survival 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 Outmigration year

36. LGR-MCNMCN-BON steelhead survival 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 Outmigration year

37. LGR-MCNMCN-BON steelhead survival 98990402030001060705990402030001060705 76% 70% Outmigration year

38. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April Yearling Chinook survival

39. Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Mid-late April Steelhead survival

40. Percent Spill Water Transit Time (days) Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Mid-late April

41. Percent Spill Early May Mid-late May Percent Spill Mid-late April Unimpounded Chinook survival = ~ 0.89 (Raymond 1979)

42. Travel time is related to river velocity: the higher the water velocity, the higher the rate of fish migration. Impounding the river reduced the river velocity and migration rate of both juvenile Chinook salmon and steelheads to one- third that through free-flowing stretches of river. Prior to construction of new dams (1966 to 1968), survival of wild Chinook salmon from the Salmon River to Ice Harbor Dam averaged 89% (range 85 to 95%). Following completion of Lower Monumental and Little Goose Dams (1970), average survival to Ice Harbor Dam sharply declined to 33% (range 12 to 50%). 31 years ago… -Raymond (1979)

43. Conclusions Juvenile travel times, mortality rates and survival rates through the hydrosystem are strongly influenced by managed river conditions (water transit time and spill levels). Statistical relationships accurately predict the effects of environmental factors and management strategies on migration and survival rates of juvenile yearling Chinook and steelhead. Improvements in in-river survival and travel times can be achieved through reductions in water transit time or increased spill.