1. FRANX Code for Fire PRA Analysis PSA2008 09/08/2008 Jeff Riley Richard Anoba / Anoba Consulting Bijan Najafi / SAIC

2. 2 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview Where does FRANX fit into the process Some key FRANX features

3. 3 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Some history FRANC –Started in 1995 (Exelon) –Scenario by scenario screening calculations XINIT –Started in 2003 (OPPD) –Model morphing FRANX –2008 –Combine FRANC and XINIT –Add interfaces to cable and fire propagation

4. 4 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Software Overview Cable & Equipment Locations Fire Sources & Freq (scenarios) Fire Progression & Damage Plant Effect (PSA Model)

5. 5 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integration Diagram

6. 6 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Scenario Management Define fire scenarios –Zone (supports multiple zones) –Relevant fire attributes (Duration, size, …) –Severity factor & non-suppression probability –Fire Impacts Failed equipment, spurious events

7. 7 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Scenario Details

8. 8 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Mapping Scenarios to Fire Impacts Induced initiator Direct impact Multi-layer mapping from cable database Support for unknown locations Support for success and degraded effects if needed

9. 9 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Special fire effects Spurious operation Changes to HRA due to fire –New human actions, changed probabilities, blocked recoveries Other fire-spceific model changes

10. 10 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Deterministic Evaluation Boolean Failure Status Panel

11. 11 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. CDF Quantification Full PRA model –Accepts Mutually Exclusive Files, Flags etc. Recovery rules CDF calculation from CCDP Screening / Hiding

12. 12 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Scenario Validation & Refinement Ones-run cutsets allows diagnosis Track cutsets through fault tree Calculate importances

13. 13 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integration with Risk Monitor New PRA model is constructed that includes fire initiators and scenario information (human actions, NSP, etc.) Allows simultaneous calculation of all fire impacts Model can be used with real-time model in risk monitors such as EOOS

14. 14 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Interface to Cable Data FRANX mapping database Import from more sophisticated database Plant Raceway/Cable Data Cable/BE Data

15. 15 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Fire Effects Calculates Ignition Frequency and non-suppression probability Calculates fire progression and subsequent Equipment Impacts Import then into FRANX

16. 16 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Future work Fire Propagation Model Incorporate simple calculations of fire frequencies and damage effects Configuration Risk Management Improvements Track status of fire barriers, suppression systems, etc. Ability to change the status of barriers etc.. (not possible now) Other External Events Incorporate additional flood & siesmic specific features

17. 17 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity