1. American Government and Organization PS1301 Tuesday, 5 October

2. Announcements Dates to remember: Vice Presidential Debate is tonight at 8pm. Please watch! Vice Presidential Debate is tonight at 8pm. Please watch! Second Presidential Debate is Friday, October 8 Second Presidential Debate is Friday, October 8 Third Presidential Debate is following Wednesday, October 13 Third Presidential Debate is following Wednesday, October 13

3. Debate Trivia – Who said that? "We can build that bridge to the 21st century.“ "I served with Jack Kennedy; I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.“ "Who am I? Why am I here?" "If there's a fair way, I'm all ears."

4. Effect of Debates on Interest in Campaign: 2000 NAES

5. Who do you think did the best job, or won, the debate… Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

6. Who won the debate? (by party id) Source: ABC News Poll

7. Who do you think was the most knowledgeable? Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

8. Who do you think responded best under pressure? Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

9. Who do you think seemed more “presidential” Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

10. Who do you think appeared more likeable? Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

11. Effects of the Debate on Voting Intentions Republican Convention First Debate Source: http://www.pollingreport.com/

13. Plan for Today Nomination Process-How do we end up with these two candidates? Selection process-primaries and caucuses Importance of momentum

14. Who decides who the party nominee will be? In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

15. Schedule of 2004 Primaries

16. Front loading 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March Benefits the front runner Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

17. Impact of Iowa and NH Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004) In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination. Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

18. Past experience Underdogs have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

19. Why do early primaries play such a large role? Importance of momentum Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more contributions This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch up.

20. Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

21. Voters in New Hampshire

22. Impact of New Hampshire Primary

23. Opinion about the Candidates

24. Democratic Delegates The Democratic Party allots a number of delegates to each state based on population (as measured by electoral college votes) and the number of votes the Democratic presidential candidate received in the last general election. The party assigns states additional delegate slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic members of Congress. Superdelegates are included in the totals Delegates needed to win: 2,162 Total Delegates: 4,322

25. Results Schedule and Results of the 2004 Democratic Primary Schedule and Results of the 2004 Democratic Primary

26. What happened See NY TIMES interactive NY TIMES interactiveNY TIMES interactive

27. Events in 2004 On Feb. 3, following primaries in 7 states (including South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona) primary, Lieberman drops out On Feb 9, following the Virginia and Tennessee primaries, Clark drops out On Feb 18, following the Wisconsin primary, Dean drops out On March 3, following 10 primaries (including California, New York, Ohio, and Georgia) Edwards drops out

28. Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

29. The Republican Primary in 2000

30. Delegate Selection Rules