1. North Sea Case Study UNCOVER Report Writing Workshop Holte February 2010

2. “If any trawling ground be over-fished, the trawlers themselves will be the first persons to feel the evil effect of their own acts. Fish will become scarcer, and the produce of a day’s work will diminish until it is no longer remunerative. When this takes place (and it will take place long before the extinction of the fish) trawling in this locality will cease, and the fish will be left undisturbed, until their great powers of multiplication have made good their losses, and the ground again becomes profitable to the trawler. In such circumstances as these, any act of legislative interference is simply a superfluous intervention between man and nature.” Report of the Commissioners, 1866

3. Status Quo StockSSB in relation to precautionary limits F in relation to precautionary limits F in relation to high long-term yield F in relation to agreed target CodReduced reproductive capacity Increased riskOverfishedAbove target PlaiceFull reproductive capacity Harvested sustainably OverfishedBelow target HerringIncreased riskHarvest sustainably AppropriateAbove target

4. Status Quo - Cod “…ICES classifies the stock as suffering reduced reproductive capacity and as being at risk of being harvested unsustainably. SSB has increased since its historical low in 2006, but remains below B lim. Fishing mortality declined after 2000, but in 2008 increased, predominantly as a consequence of increased discarding and is currently estimated to be between F lim and F pa. The 2005 year class is estimated to be one of the most abundant amongst the recent below-average year classes. The 2008 year class is estimated to be one of the lowest in the series.”

5. Status Quo - Cod

6. SSB declined since late 90s. Recent small increase as 2005 year class matures combined with relatively low F. Recruitment – 1996 last large year class. 2005 relatively high. But 2006 and 2007 weak. 2008 expected to be weak F has decreased but recent values are uncertain. F increased recently due to increase in discarding. Discard mortality > human consumption mortality

7. Management - Cod Former recovery plan (2004) was not precautionary – cut in quota not matched by cut in effort. Another recovery plan (2009) was evaluated Is precautionary if implemented and enforced. Effort management introduced (2009) – gear and metier dependent.

8. Cod Despite measures cod has not recovered Low F, but Recruitment has been recently poor Stock structure and diversity High F on low ages prevents growth, even if recruitment is high.

9. Cod Mixed fishery – current plan is single species Evaluation of plan was single species (e.g. no cannibalism) – may overestimate probability of recovery Multispecies modelling (SMS) demonstrate predation is key biological process Multispecies modelling increases uncertainty – SMS vs EwE Mixed-species nature of fishery and international dimension are two main factors contributing to decline (Bannister, 2004). WKMIXFISH 2009 – evaluated consistency of single stock plans. Cod fared badly – over quota catches. Effort restrictions should help. FCUBE is in FLR – include in future evaluations?

10. Cod Specify ‘recovery’ – HCRs in 2008 evaluations had no agreed criteria Substocks important? Impact of environmental change? Warming lead to reduction in recruitment (STECF 2007). Stock shifted northward and deeper? Impact of climate is highly speculative and often contradictory Should reference points (MSY) be multispecies?

11. Status Quo - Plaice “ICES classifies the stock as having full reproductive capacity and as being harvested sustainably. SSB is estimated to have increased above the B pa. Fishing mortality is estimated to have decreased to below F pa and F target. Recruitment has been of average strength from 2005 onwards. The recruitment in 2008 is just below the long-term average.”

12. Status Quo - Plaice

13. STECF advised a recovery plan (2003) ICES proposal for a multi-annual plan tabled (2005) No agreed EU – Norway plan EU agreed long-term management plan (2007). Uses TAC and effort restrictions. Evaluated in 2008. Not yet been concluded if plan was precautionary

14. Plaice Plaice – recovered - why? Reduction in F – driven by? –Management plan –Reduction in fleet capacity –Fuel prices drive down effort STECF 2009 – too soon to attribute Suggests inclusion of socio-economics in evaluation of proposed plans is essential

15. Plaice Stock age diversity did not impact on recruitment Allowed stock to take advantage of low F Low F laid foundation of recovery, still needed high Rec. i.e. low F does not guarantee recovery. Compare to situation Cod Cooler water may reduce future recruitment ? Inclusion of biological information (e.g. TEP) may lead to alternative perception of stock status and ref pts? Question is now – how to prevent future collapse – precautionary plan. Recommended to use MSE.

16. Status Quo - Herring “…ICES classifies the stock as being at risk of having reduced reproductive capacity and harvested sustainably. The SSB in autumn 2008 was estimated at 1.0 million t, and is expected to remain below B pa (1.3 million t) in 2009. F 2-6 in 2008 was estimated at 0.24, above the management target F2-6 (for this state of the stock = 0.14). The year classes since 2002 are estimated to be among the weakest since the late 1970s.”

17. Status Quo Herring

18. Status Quo - Herring Spawning stock biomass has fluctuated: –~ 4.5 million tonnes in the late 1940s –less than 100 000 tonnes in the late 1970s Demonstrated robustness in relation to recovery from low levels once fishing mortality is curtailed in spite of recruit- ment levels being adversely affected.

19. Status Quo - Herring Management plan 1996 – reviewed and adapted every few years. Precautionary ref pts adopted in 1998. Previous plan was precautionary. Critical issues is risk of SSB falling below B lim EU-Norway adjust plan to account for poor recruitment (2008) – quotas to reduce F. New plan also precautionary Even though the current and previous management plans were considered “precautionary”, the stock declined below biomass targets in the mid-2000s. This was primarily caused by a change in productivity of the stock Exacerbated by the failure of the managers and industry to adhere to the existing management plan

20. Status Quo - Herring The harvest control rule was revised again in 2009 Reduction of the effective target fishing mortality through a change in trigger biomass. SSB is expected to increase in 2010 & 2011 Indicates current management can reverse the decline and stabilize it above the present level. The 2008 year class is within the range of recent low recruitments ICES assumes that the recruitment will remain at the low level.

21. Herring Larval survival - each spawner now produces less than one recruit per year. Specific causes are unknown; the pattern in recruitment from 1970 to 2005 appears similar to environmental signals in the North East Atlantic such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Change in productivity combined with failure to adhere to the existing management plan Suggests that implementation and enforcement need to be included in plan evaluation?

22. Herring After collapse in 1970s, only three of the four North Sea herring stocks actually recovered, the fourth stock (Downs) taking substantially longer to recover. Recovered stocks might not be as productive. –Recovery vs rebuilding Sub-stocks – work on herring West of British Isles – fail to detect overexploitation - overestimate the probability of recovery and underestimate the risk of stock collapse.

23. Herring Compensation in recruitment has occurred in North Sea herring, and it was stronger after the collapse of the stock There is more variability in recruits per unit spawning stock size when the stock is smaller – possible impact of substocks The importance of herring in multispecies models has not been fully explored.

24. Impact of precautionary plans StockPrevious status Precautionary plan? What happened? CodCollapsedYesNot recovered PlaiceCollapsed?Recovered HerringHealthyYesDanger of Collapse

25. Generic HCRs STECF 2008- codoid and herringoid Picking max of F 0.1 and F sq was less effective than picking F 0.1. Inter-species comparisons not carried out. STECF recommended the approach be developed.

26. General thoughts How precautionary is precautionary? Cannot recover without low F – some control – implementation error and enforcement But you also need high Rec – no control Plans should be robust to stuff we can’t control Plans need some target time and acceptable level of risk to be defined Can you attribute recovery to plan – time taken Socio-economics needs to be included in evaluations Top down vs Local management / Results Based Management - JAKFISH Further development of MSE approach is recommended by ICES and STECF

27. NSCS Report Models and results Distinguish what has directly come from UNCOVER and what has been ‘reviewed’. WP2 - input Socio-economics Stakeholder participation Precautionary Section 3.3.1 (3a) Wood / trees