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Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007
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Norges Bank 2 20062007 Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts
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Norges Bank 3 House prices 1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month growth 2). January 2003 – January 2007 1) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-month moving average Housing starts Existing dwellings New dwellings Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank
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Norges Bank 4 10-year yields in different countries Per cent. 1 January 2006 –12 March 2007 Source: Reuters EcoWin Norway US Germany Sweden UK
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Norges Bank 5 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank Government bond yields Yield curve US 13 March 2007 3-month 6-month
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Norges Bank 6 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 13 March 2007 23 January 2007 Sweden UK Policy rates internationally - actual and expected at 23 January and 13 March 2007 Norway
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Norges Bank 7 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 -12 March 2007 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 19 January 2007 12 March 2007
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Norges Bank 8 Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market (GRI) and the US equity market (VIX) 2 January 2001 – 13 March 2007 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market Implied volatility of US equities
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Norges Bank 9 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 22 January 2007 13 March 2007 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2010 Average 1 - 13 March 2007
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Norges Bank 10 Various inflation indicators 12-month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI
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Norges Bank 11 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/06 (broken line). 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) The CPI-ATE and CPI-ATED were adjusted for day care rates in 2006 Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods CPI-ATE
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Norges Bank 12 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) Labour market In 1000s of persons, seasonally adjusted. January 2002 – February 2007 1) The changes to the LFS have resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006. This affects the seasonally adjusted monthly figures from December 2005 onwards. LFS unemployment Registered unemployed LFS employment 1) Unemployment
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Norges Bank 13 Business tendency survey Capacity utilisation in manufacturing. Per cent. 1988 Q1 - 2006 Q4 Source: Statistics Norway
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Norges Bank 14 Order backlogs and new orders in manufacturing Unrevised figures. Index. 1995 = 100. 1993 Q1 - 2006 Q4 Source: Statistics Norway Order backlogs New orders
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Norges Bank 15 Enterprise sector credit 1) and liquid assets 2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Source: Statistics Norway Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2).
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Norges Bank 16 Enterprise sector credit 1) and liquid assets 2) Holdings. In billions of NOK. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Source: Statistics Norway Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2).
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Norges Bank 17 House prices and household debt Percentage change on same month/quarter previous year. Per cent. January 2001 - February 2007 House prices Household debt (C2) Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Real estate industry Statistics Norway
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Norges Bank 18 Household net interest-bearing debt and net financial assets In billions of NOK. 1997 Q1 – 2006 Q3 Source: Statistics Norway Net interest-bearing debt 1) 1) Total debt less bank deposits 2) Total assets less total debt Net financial assets 2)
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Norges Bank 19 Monetary policy strategy The key policy rate should lie in the interval 4 – 5 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Report on 27 June 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections.
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Norges Bank 20 Projected inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario Per cent. 2005 Q1 – 2010 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Output gap CPI-ATE CPI
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Norges Bank 21 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank The baseline scenarios in IR 3/06 and MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 Output gap Sight deposit rate MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 CPI-ATE MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 CPI
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Norges Bank 22 Norges Bank's and the market's path for the overnight deposit rate At 13 March 2007 Market 13 March 2007 Market before IR 3/06 (31 Oct) Baseline scenario MPR 1/07 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
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Norges Bank 23 Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007
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