1. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Characteristics in Flight Data Estimation with Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines ICRAT 2004 Claus Gwiggner, LIX, Ecole Polytechnique Palaiseau Gert Lanckriet, EECS, University of California, Berkeley Characteristics in Flight Data

2. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Flow Management and Planning Differences  Time slots are distributed among aircraft to avoid congestion In reality, delays, re-reroutings, etc. lead to missed time slots Not the same number of aircraft than planned arrive in sectors: safety, lost capacity Planning Differences

3. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Related Work  Factors/Causes [ATFM Study, PRR]  Slot adherence, flight plan quality, in-flight change of route,....  Simulations [Ky, Stortz]  Random noise on departure times  Reactionary Delay [Toulouse Study]  microscopic model of departure times

4. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Unknown  Real situation at sector entries  interplay of factors  compensations of delays ...

5. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Program  Problem Formulation  Simple Characteristics  Binary Classification  Conclusion  Future Work

6. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Planning Differences Planning Differences = Regulated Demand – Real Demand

7. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH General Problem Formulation  Find 'regularities' of planning differences, useful to improve the current planning procedure  Why? Safety, suboptimal used capacity  How?  MACRO approach: relations between flows, not single deviations from flight plans  Daily basis, not extreme situations  How? Data analysis  141 days of week-day data

8. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Today's Question  Are planning differences of different sectors the 'same'?  if yes: any model can be greatly simplified  if no: what are the differences?  Difficulty  24 dimensions: one variable for each hour

9. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Comparison of Planning Differences  No visible regularities in both sectors...

10. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Mean and Standard Deviation...but similar mean and standard deviation over the time

11. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH  H0: same underlying distribution...  reject on 1 % level  assumes that statistical properties do not vary over time .... but what are the characteristics?  e.g. 'if high peaks at noon => sector 1'?  Find a rule that tells whether a sequence of values belongs to sector 1  Classification problem Hypothesis Tests

12. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH (Binary) Classification  Probabilistic  'what is the probability that a new item belongs to sector 1?'  Logistic Regression  Geometric  'on which side of the boundary lies the new item?'  Support Vector Machines

13. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Some Problems in Classification  Probabilistic  which underlying distribution?  Geometric  overlapping classes?  which form of boundaries ? Fig: linear decision boundary and overlapping classes

14. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Logistic Regression ● Assumes (normally) a linear relation between probability p and item X  p = prob(C=1 | X) = 1/1+e^bX

15. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Support Vector Machines  Non-linear boundaries  transformation of the initial instances into a higher dimensional space  Solve the problem of overlapping classes  relaxation of the boundary constraint

16. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Comparison  Linear Logistic Regression vs SVMs  linear vs non-linear  simple vs mathematically sophisticated  traditional vs state-of-the-art  probabilistic vs geometric  Common points [Hastie et. al 2003], [Friedman 2003]  SVM estimator of class probabilities  logistic regression induces linear boundaries

17. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Experiments on...  Data from 4 sectors in Upper Berlin airspace  Raw Data (random permutations)  Data where number of instances in both classes are balanced  In total 8 experiments conducted

18. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Model Selection  Report Estimated Prediction Error (EPE)  Model Selection:  Cross-Validation [Stone 1974]  Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test

19. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Parameters of SVMs  Kernel functions  Linear, Gauss, Poly, Linear CN, Gauss CN, Poly CN  Kernel parameters  Cost Function  1 Norm, 2 Norm  In total over 800 combinations possible  best one estimated by cross validation

20. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Results

21. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Summary  characteristics in high dimensional data  comparison of a very simple and a very complicated classification method

22. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Conclusions  There are systematic differences between different sectors  SVMs do not promise major improvement  no more than 4% better than logistic regression  Linear Prediction is possible  Expected prediction errors around 15 %

23. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Future Work  (black box) prediction not satisfactory  Better understanding of the underlying processes  reasons for the differences  model of the probability distribution of planned traffic and realized traffic

24. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Questions ? Thanks for your attention!

25. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Results  Is Week End?

26. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Known: Causes for Planning Differences Departure Slot adherence Inconsistent profile CASA implementation In flight change of route Regulations too late Weekday, Season Weather Source: Independent Study for the Improvement of ATFM, Final Report, 2000 Slot tolerance window Missing flight plans Incorrect flight plan information Priorities: Very High High Medium Unknown time # over-deliveries

27. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Little known: Dynamics of Planning Differences X: time Y: Number of planning differences Sector n... 'Error' Propagation Sector 2Sector 1 Related Work: Simulation studies, reactionary delay studies

28. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Summary Motivation  Are planning differences unpredictable?  Or are there hidden 'regularities'?

29. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Possible Research Questions  Propagation over the network  Dependence on traffic density, sector complexity,... ...  Characteristics  Comparison of different sectors

30. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Notation  A sector is represented as a vector of 24 variables, one for each hour  An instance is a value for this vector  An instance belongs to class 1 or -1; dependent on the sector from which it was drawn

31. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Binary Classification ● Given:  Instances from sectors 1 and -1 ● Question:  a rule to decide for a new instance to which sector it might belong ● Example:  if 'high peaks at noon' then class 1  Decision trees

32. EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE INNOVATIVE RESEARCH Geometric and Probabilistic Approaches example: Instances are 2 dimensional  Geometric  Instances are points in Euclidean space  Rules are class boundaries  Problem: overlapping classes  Probabilistic  Classes have underlying probability distribution  Rules are class-probabilities  Problem: which distribution?