1. Sarah Lynn Fingerle

2.  Motivation  Background  Key points  Suggested paths of inquiry

3.  Why the Southwest United States?  How is the SW US susceptible to climate change?

4. The Southwest United States receives most of its moisture from Monsoon Precipitation Three water sources: Pacific Ocean, Gulf of California, Gulf of Mexico Secondary water sources include latent soil moisture and mountain run off Moisture propagation affected by wave motions

5.  Warm SSTs in the Pacific Ocean reduce monsoon precipitation (Mo & Paegle 2000)  Increased precipitation variability leads to soil drying out (Anderson et al 2009)  A large wintertime snowpack leads to a dampening of the summertime monsoon (Gutzler 2000)  The PDO and ENSO working together dampen monsoon-type precipitation (Brown 2011)

6.  Closer examination of the influence of the Gulf of Mexico  Westward propagating tropical waves in the Gulf of Mexico  Extend area of interest to include Mexico

7.  Motivation  Background  Key points  Suggested further work

8. www.denix.osd.mil cultureeveryday.com

9.  Anderson, Bruce T., Catherine Reifen, Ralf Toumi, 2009: Identification of Nonlinear Behavior in Transient Climate Change Projections of Soil Moisture over the United States. Earth Interactions, 13, 1-13.   Brown, David P., 2011: Winter Circulation Anomalies in the Western United States Associated with Antecedent and Decadal ENSO Variability. Earth Interactions. 15, 1-12.   Carleton, Andrew M., Duane A. Carpenter, Paul J. Weser, 1990: Mechanisms of Interannual Variability of the Southwest United States Summer Rainfall Maximum. J. Climate. 3, 999-1015.   Chistiansen, Daniel E., Steven L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, 2011: Impacts of Climate Change on the Growing Season in the United States. Earth Interactions, 15, 1-17.   Gutzler, David S., 2000: Covariability of Spring Snowpack and Summer Rainfall across the Southwest United States. J. Climate. 13, 4018-4027.   Mo, Kingtse C., and Julia Nogues Paegle, 2000: Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Precipitation Regimes over the Southwest United States. J. Climate. 13, 3588-3598.   Peterson, Thomas C., et al, 2013: Monitoring and Understanding changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods, and Droughts in the United States. BAMS, June, 821-834. ( not this one)   Swetnam, Thomas W., and Julio L. Betancourt, 1998: Mesoscale Disturbance and Ecological Response to Decadal Climate Variability in the American Southwest. J. Climate, 11, 3128-314   Yuan, Huiling, et al, 2007: Short-Range Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States by the RSM Ensemble System. MWR, 135, 1685-1698.